MANY in the U.S. beef industry are shaking their heads in disbelief at recent actions carried out or announced by the Trump Administration. Its actions, say observers, seem to belie the Administration’s claims that it wants to help cattle producers and consumers. Its actions in fact appear to be doing the opposite, they say. Other actions by the Administration, such as the ongoing war with Iran, have dramatically raised diesel prices, a fuel which virtually every one in agricultural production depends on. The result, as the Wall Street Journal wrote last Tuesday, is that Republicans are facing the worst environment in farm country in decades.
The U.S. beef industry has been at loggerheads with the Trump Administration over beef imports since February 6 this year when the Executive Office of the President issued a proclamation increasing the tariff rate quota for Argentine beef by an additional 80,000 metric tons (mt), to be issued in four quarterly tranches throughout 2026. Argentina filled tranche two in June and, according to the Department of Homeland Security, Customs and Border Protection Weekly Commodity Status Report for September 8, the third tranche was filled as of August 28. The fourth and final tranche of this temporary increase in Argentina’s quota opened on October 1, says ERS.
Trump Raises Import Target
Then came President Trump’s startling announcement on Truth Social on August 21 that the United States will allow up to 300,000 mt of product for ground beef to be imported over the next three months without being subject to out-of-quota tariffs. Trump said importers had agreed the ground beef would be sold at 25% below market prices. Trump’s post came as his fellow Republicans fear that Americans’ concerns about the affordability of everyday products, such as food, could lead to losses for GOP congressional candidates in November. However, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn (NCBA) and other organizations criticized the move, saying it would not address Trump’s stated intention of helping to increase the size of the U.S. beef herd.
NCBA is disappointed by the President’s statement, said CEO Colin Woodall in a sharp and immediate response. While America’s cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd. Cattle markets already turned sharply lower on August 21, to the detriment of farmers and ranchers.
This is a critical time of year for cattle producers, as the industry approaches the season where they are making decisions regarding their herds, said Woodall. Cattle farmers and ranchers are responding to strong market signals and historically high demand, and the industry is already working to rebuild after years of ongoing drought, high input costs and other challenges that have reduced U.S. cattle numbers. Trump’s announcement and other market interventions throw cold water on the prospect of herd expansion and sacrifices long-term stability for short term messaging, he said.
The most recent blow to the industry was immigration action by ICE agents in south-west Kansas the week before last that caused a high rate of absenteeism at three major beef processing plants. Total slaughter that week was expected to be 533,000 head but came in at an estimated 484,000 head. The action left industry leaders bewildered as to why the action took place and angry at the consequences, as next reported.
THREE GROUPS CRITICIZE ICE ACTION
THE ICE action prompted the Texas Cattle Feeders Assn, the Kansas Livestock Assn and the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Assn to put out a lengthy statement which criticized the action. The three groups respect the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law, they said. At the same time, cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors and other rural businesses depend on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety and keep the supply chains operating. Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal welfare, operational and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business, they said.
These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving, said the groups. Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for consumers. Reported impacts to the organizations throughout the days after the action included: Thousands of fed cattle slated for shipping to processors now delayed, resulting in millions of dollars in lost revenue and additional costs; Workforce disruptions at numerous supply chain chokepoints such as feedyards, dairies, processors, feed and grain companies, transportation hubs and community services.
These disruptions come at a time of enhanced focus and pressure on the cattle and beef supply chain, said the groups. They are a costly and unnecessary impact to cattle producers already suffering from unwelcome political interference to both the markets as well as the physical supply chain. Frustratingly, the harm these actions cause to cattle producers last for days and weeks after such operations conclude, they said. They urged federal officials to conduct enforcement actions in a lawful, orderly and transparent manner, respect due process and communicate clearly with affected employers and communities.
ICE Action Appears To End
The immigration enforcement action in southwest Kansas regarding packing plant facilities has concluded for now, with significant levels of workers suddenly healthy again, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. His remarks came after the harvest level reported for last Monday was 95,000 head. The level for Tuesday was an estimated 108,000 head, with 98,000 head on Wednesday due to mechanical/electrical issues at two Southern Plains plants. Is the immigration enforcement action ended and/or where is the next action, he asked. Time will certainly let us know. For now, operations look to be ‘normalizing,’ he said.
Estimated packer margins are now positive by more than $100 per head, although regionally northern operations should be at a noticeable higher rate than operations on the Southern Plains, says Wilson. The scaled back production tightened up some of the beef offerings from packers and is having an impact on forward commitments. The total harvest last week was projected to be 532,000 to 535,000 head, although this could grow as packers worked to add back some hours lost the week before last, he says.
On another note of confusion the week before last, a small group of White House officials is exploring whether to cut back President Trump’s decision to dramatically increase foreign beef imports, as GOP panic rises ahead of the mid-terms. The proposal to reduce the amount of imports is being discussed within the Domestic Policy Council headed by Vince Haley, a longtime Trump speechwriter and former campaign official, and a few other officials at the White House. That is according to two people with direct knowledge of the conversations, who were granted anonymity to share private details with Politico.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported last Tuesday that with just over a month to go until mid-term elections, Republicans are facing the worst political environment in farm country in decades. Tariffs and high prices for diesel, gas and fertilizer because of the war in Iran, along with President Trump’s plans to import more beef, have soured the moods of America’s farmers and ranchers, giving an opening for Democrats in what are typically solid red states, said the WSJ.
Trade War Cost Farmers Billions
Trump’s trade war with China halted soybean exports, depressing prices for last year’s crop and costing farmers billions of dollars, said the WSJ. Tariffs have also made farm equipment more expensive. “We need to get some other voices in there to push back a little bit on this stuff,” said Nancy Danner, who farms thousands of acres of corn and soybeans with her husband, Kevin in western Iowa. “We need as many changes as we can get.” Danner, a former independent who said she is voting for all Democrats this mid-term cycle, blames Republicans for not pushing back on the war in Iran. She is frustrated with Trump’s tariffs and said higher diesel fuel prices because of the war are hurting farmer profits, despite a recent uptick in grain prices.
Farmers have been a loyal voting bloc for Trump and the Republican Party for years, said the WSJ. Many still support the president, especially on social issues such as ending diversity initiatives, and say their short-term pain is needed for long-term changes to unfair trade policies with China. They are also skeptical of Democrats as a viable alternative. But anxiety has been building over the past year, and Trump’s favorability ratings have now dropped to near record lows. High prices for diesel fuel have vexed many farmers, said the WSJ.
Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, and their troubles in farm states are boosting Democrats’ prospects for flipping both chambers and taking back governor mansions, said the WSJ. Races in agricultural states such as Iowa, which went for Trump by 13 percentage points in 2024, are increasingly competitive for Democrats, who are bashing Trump’s farm policies while calling for breaking up large agriculture companies. Republican Zach Lahn and Democrat Rob Sand are facing off in the race for Iowa governor. Farmer disaffection is boosting Sand, the state auditor and the only Democrat currently elected to statewide office in Iowa. Recent polls show Sand leading Lahn, a businessman and farmer. The Iowa Farm Bureau Political Action Committee didn’t endorse either candidate, the first time it sat out endorsing the race for governor since 2010. The group has endorsed all Republicans in recent election cycles.
Democrats Hope To Flip In Iowa
Democrats believe they have a shot to flip three of Iowa’s four House seats. There is also a hotly contested race for Iowa’s open Senate seat between Republican Rep Ashley Hinson, a former TV news anchor, and Josh Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist in basketball. Michael Sersland, an Iowa farmer with about 1100 acres, is still undecided on the midterm races and is waiting until Election Day to make up his mind. Farmers are Republicans but they aren’t fans of the war and rising costs, he said.
In a letter in last Tuesday’s WSJ, Muscatine, Iowa farmer Dennis Taylor said he remembers President Trump’s tariff comments to a joint session of Congress in March of 2025). Beyond saying he loves us, he said his new trade policy, including tariffs, would be great for the farmer. Still, he cautioned farmers that “it may be a little bit of an adjustment,” and that they would “probably have to bear with me again,” as farmers did in 2018 during his less-than-successful trade negotiations with China, wrote Taylor.
If true, as JD Vance states, the Trump administration wants farming to be easier; the past year-and-a-half have only shown efforts to make farming harder, wrote Taylor. Higher tariffs have increased the cost of farm fertilizer, pesticides, diesel fuel and farm equipment. Trade wars, especially with Canada, to which Iowa sends 30% of its exports, have damaged relationships with established trading partners and depressed farm commodity prices. Easing tariffs on foreign beef imports continue to damage efforts to rebuild domestic cattle herds. Two Iowans have given their lives in the undeclared Iran war, he wrote. The consequences of these Trump decisions are cumulative to the farm economy, with no apparent end in sight. Farm subsidies have provided only a minor reimbursement for the significant loss of farm revenues and increased expenses. The time to continue to “bear” this has expired, he wrote. The WSJ story also noted that outside of Iowa, ranchers in states including Nebraska, Kansas and Texas, are fuming over Trump’s recent plan to import 300,000 metric tons or roughly 660M lbs of beef from South America free of tariffs. The move, aimed at lowering high consumer prices, infuriated ranchers, said the WSJ.
LIGHT KILLS STYMIE CATTLE PRICE RALLY
HISTORICALLY low cattle slaughter rates continue to stymie a rally in cash live cattle prices. Cattle feeders last week hoped that prices might advance slightly, notably on the Southern Plains, as packers there bought more cattle to make up for those they did not harvest the week before. The week before last saw the 5-area steer price average $220.67 per cwt live, down $1.20 per cwt from the prior week. The dressed price averaged $347.93 per cwt, down $2.22 per cwt. The first three days of last week saw a light trade (7604 head) in the Corn Belt at $218-219 per cwt live or $345-349 per cwt dressed. Further trade occurred there on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the week before last saw the comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) average $378.71 per cwt, down $0.42 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $374.99 per cwt, down $1.20 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 28.6% of the total volume of 6290 loads. Formula sales accounted for 55.9%, forward sales accounted for 15.5% and export sales accounted for 12.9 %. The Choice cutout the first four days last week declined by $2.04 per cwt after falling sharply on Thursday.
As an example of how high wholesale beef prices are impacting sellers, Omaha Steaks says it is slashing its menu and expanding its retail footprint as beef prices continue to soar. The business will trim its offerings from 500 items down to about 120 and put more focus on cheaper cuts of meat, as consumers are now paying about 27% more for beef than they did three years ago. The 109-year-old company plans to double its retail footprint over the next two years and open about 80 locations, says the Scripps News Group.
When the next cattle inventory report arrives (in late January), it will be hard to not see that some herd expansion started this year, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. The combined female harvest for August (the most recent data released) was the second lowest on record for any month, any year. The combined commercial totals were less than 1M head, making August 2026 only the third time in history to be under that threshold. Both of the other times that low total female harvest occurred were in 2015, during the summer and the peak of the last expansionary cycle. Total cow harvest through three quarters in 2026 was 3.5% lower than in 2025. Dairy cow harvest was running above last year while beef cow slaughter was down double-digits, he says.
INSTITUTE APPLAUDS CHINA MOVES
THE Meat Institute, which represents U.S. meat processors, applauds the fact that beef and pork were included in the list of goods qualifying for better trade treatment as a result of ongoing negotiations with China. The Meat Institute is appreciative of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s ongoing efforts to secure greater access to Chinese markets for US pork and beef, said Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts. It was great to see the inclusion of beef and pork on the list of non-sensitive goods, which will set the foundation for addressing persistently high retaliatory tariffs and trade-limiting non-tariff barriers on U.S. meat exports. This was one of the Meat Institute’s requests and it thanks the Trump Administration for its dedication to securing more favorable access for US exports, said Potts.
While the Institute knows these negotiations take time, it is confident Ambassador Greer and Ambassador Julie Callahan (also of USTR) will continue to work on the remaining, highly technical non-tariff barriers which continue to hinder access to China, said Potts. The Chinese market is especially important for the beef supply chain. China is a key market for U.S. beef variety meats and offal, products that find little consumer demand in the U.S. but strong prices in China. These U.S. beef exports to China support higher carcass values and reduce price pressure on domestic cuts, contributing to more stable beef prices for American consumers. Strong export demand drives higher carcass value, which encourages cattle producers in the US to rebuild their herds. The Institute is particularly encouraged by the announcement of a technical agricultural working group established under the Board of Trade, said Potts.