THE U.S.-China trade war will hammer a wide array of U.S. commodities and food products, from beef to soybeans. More than $15.7 billion in U.S. agricultural exports to China now face tariffs of 84%, which began April 10. The trade war escalated dramatically after the White House on April 2 announced sweeping new tariffs on more than 50 countries, including a combined 54% levy added for Chinese goods. On April 7, Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the U.S. China two days later responded with a tariff escalation of its own, slapping an additional 34% levy on U.S. goods, on top of 10% to 15% tariffs China added on select products earlier this year.
Trump then announced on April 8 his plan to raise tariffs to 104% for Chinese imports. He stated he would impose an additional 50% tariff if the nation did not withdraw its 34% counter-tariff. Then last Wednesday Trump raised the tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. to 145%. China responded by saying it would raise tariffs on U.S. imports to 84%. Trump however backtracked on higher tariffs to other countries. He delayed their implementation for 90 days, although the baseline 10% tariff will remain in place. Canada and Mexico will remain for now exempt from the 10% tariff.
China’s new 84% tariff means that U.S beef cuts and beef variety meat imports now face a 106% tariff and that U.S. pork cuts and pork variety meat imports face a 131% tariff. The U.S. Meat Export Federation noted last week that in contrast, U.S. beef’s primary competitor in China, grain-fed beef from Australia, enjoys duty-free access under a bilateral trade agreement. New Zealand beef is also duty-free, while most other suppliers are tariffed at 12%. USMEF says that even more concerning is the fate of U.S. exports to China moving forward due to the delay in China’s renewal of beef plant registrations.
China Will Likely Shut Out U.S. Products
Current Chinese tariffs on U.S. beef, pork and other agricultural products are at levels that will likely shut off the market for U.S. livestock producers, says Steiner Consulting’s Daily Livestock Report (DLR). U.S. beef was already among the most expensive in the world, which had impacted export volumes to China in recent years. At this point, it does not expect to see much U.S. beef going into that market. The DLR also noted the lack of U.S. beef plant re-certification. Current trade tensions might make this move unlikely for some time, it says. Total U.S. exports of beef and beef offals to China last year reached $1.58 billion, with beef cuts making up the vast majority ($1.52 billion). This accounted for 16% of all U.S. beef exports last year. With 25.2M fed cattle slaughtered in the U.S. in 2024, this implies that beef exports to China were worth about $63 per head, As U.S. beef currently going to China shifts to other markets or to domestic U.S. channels, higher tariffs on U.S. beef imports may help offset some of this displacement, says the DLR.
China is the U.S.’s top market for soybean exports, with a value last year of $12.84 billion. Other top U.S. export categories to China last year were: sorghum, with an export ranking of first and a $1 billion value; dairy, with an export ranking of third and a $584M value; poultry, with an export ranking of third and a value of $490M. A Wall Street Journal story said Chinese buyers are already stockpiling Brazilian soybeans as Beijing retaliates against President Trump’s tariffs with levies on U.S. agricultural producers. Brazilian suppliers of everything from cotton to chicken are banking on higher Chinese demand, said the WSJ.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 97.9%, placed 102.0%, marketed 100.8%; Kevin Coburn, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 98.2%, placed 103.6%, marketed 100.9%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 98.1%, placed 102.5%, marketed 100.7%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 98.9%, placed 106.4%, marketed 99.0%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 98.0%, placed 102.5%, marketed 101.5%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 98.5%, placed 105.5%, marketed 100.6%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 99%, placed 105%, marketed 100%
APRIL COF WAS SLIGHTLY LARGER
THE April 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total was slightly larger than a month earlier and near 99% of last year. It likely will contain an elevated volume of heifers in the mix, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. The inventory count would be 2-3% larger than the 2016-19 average, again dispelling much of the “declining fed cattle supply” argument. The calculated volume of cattle on feed over 150 days is about 5% above last year and record large for the date, he says. This Friday’s COF report will likely show that March placements were about 3% above last year, with forecasts by CBW’s seven analysts ranging from 102.5% to 106.4%. March marketings were likely just over 100% of last year.
Although March feedlot placements are projected modestly above a year ago, that increase comes on the heels of a large year-over-year decline in February, says Sands. It is also being compared with an unusually small volume moving into feedlots in March 2024. Placements remained about 7% below the 2016-19 average. March marketings likely increased from a month earlier but the marketing pace remained subdued and sales are expected to be similar to a year earlier. Significantly larger fed cattle imports from Canada during March likely displaced some marketings from U.S. feedyards, he says. As a result, January-March marketings might have slipped 2-3% below a year earlier, well below expectations based on earlier placements and feedlot inventories. As a result, more fed cattle likely were pushed into the second quarter. Heavy carcass weights and additional days on feed might temper earlier expectations for tightening fed beef supplies by late spring and early summer, delaying the tighter fed cattle supply later into the summer and fall months, he says.
Cash Live Cattle Prices Ease
Live cattle prices on a live basis fell sharply last week after easing the week before that. A light to moderate trade through Wednesday saw prices up north average $208 per cwt live or $327-330 per cwt dressed. A very light trade in Kansas saw prices average $204 per cwt live. A light trade Thursday saw similar prices up north. Trade began in Texas at $204 per cwt live. The week before last saw live prices average $211.14 per cwt, down $1.00 per cwt from the prior week. Dressed prices averaged $336.47 per cwt, down $1.85 per cwt on the prior week.
Overall carcass weights in the latest reported week ended March 29 remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 944 lbs, down 6 lbs on the week before but up 21 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 876 lbs, up 6 lbs from the week before and up 28 lbs on the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 876 lbs, up 5 lbs on the week before and up 28 lbs on the same week last year. This was the equivalent of adding 20,095 head to that week’s slaughter total of 608,580 head, says HedgersEdge.com.
The national comprehensive boxed beef cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last increased sharply from the prior week. It averaged $336.28 per cwt, up $5.51 per cwt on the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $336.49 per cwt, up $6.59 per cwt. The Select cutout averaged $317.22 per cwt, up $3.85 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 29.3% of the total volume of 6658 loads, formula sales accounted for 57.1%, forward sales accounted for 13.6% and export sales accounted for 10.2%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $4.16 per cwt to $334.29 per cwt. Weekly harvest levels are likely to trend modestly higher for the balance of this year, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. This is a concern, given the inability of the Choice cutout to stay above $340 per cwt. Seasonally, beef cutout values should trend higher into May, he says.
BEEF EXPORTS WERE LOWER IN FEB
EXPORTS of U.S. beef were lower in February than last year after trending higher in January. February pork exports were also moderately lower than a year ago, despite continued success in Mexico and Central America, says the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). February pork exports totaled 241,179 metric tons (mt), down 4% from the large year ago volume, while value fell 2% to $671.5M. For the first two months of 2025, pork exports were 3% below last year’s record pace at 485,144 mt, with value down 2% to $1.34 billion.
Although February pork exports to leading market Mexico saw a slight year-over-year decline in volume (93,178 mt, down 1%), value still climbed 7% to $202.6M, says USMEF. This was the eighth consecutive month in which shipments to Mexico have topped $200M. Through February, pork exports to Mexico were slightly ahead of last year’s record pace in volume (197,680 mt, up 1%) and 7% higher in value ($424.6M), says USMEF.
“I can’t say enough about the tremendous demand for U.S. pork in Mexico and Central America, where the U.S. industry continues to move a wider range of center-of-the-plate cuts to a variety of end users,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Unfortunately, the strong performance there has been offset by a slow start to the year in Japan and South Korea. And although February shipments to China were slightly above last year, exports may have been larger if not for the uncertainty over plant eligibility, which wasn’t resolved until mid-March,” he says.
In February and March, many U.S. pork, beef and poultry plants and cold storage facilities were due for a five-year eligibility renewal by China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), says USMEF. Pork and poultry plants were renewed on the March 16 expiration date. But GACC still has not renewed the eligibility of any U.S. beef establishments and the majority of U.S. beef production is now ineligible for China. Beef exports in February totaled 98,198 mt, down 5.5% from a year ago, while value declined 4% to just over $800M. January-February shipments were 1% below last year’s pace at 201,038 mt but value increased 1% to $1.6 billion.
It was encouraging to see beef exports to Korea trend higher despite considerable economic and political headwinds, and Canada’s demand for U.S. beef has been very robust to start the year, says Halstrom. But exports to China lost momentum in February, likely due in part to the slowdown after Chinese New Year and the questions about plant eligibility. Unfortunately, China has still failed to address the issue of beef plant renewals. This impasse definitely hit U.S. March beef shipments even harder, and the severe impact will continue until China lives up to its commitments under the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement, he says.
China Hiked Up Tariffs
China also announced additional retaliatory duties last week (see CBW’s first story). This will create further obstacles for U.S. pork and beef exports to China, says Halstrom. New U.S. tariffs have also created uncertainty for buyers of U.S. red meat in other destinations where retaliation could impact market access and prices. USMEF is hopeful that instead of retaliating, other trading partners will choose to lower trade barriers for U.S. exports. This would certainly ease the concerns of importers and reduce volatility in the global markets, he says.
February beef exports to leading value market South Korea were slightly above last year at 18,540 mt, while value climbed 4% to $179.8M, says USMEF. Through February, shipments to Korea edged 1% higher than a year ago at 37,341 mt, while value increased 6% to $362.2M. Korea’s BSE-related ban on U.S. beef from cattle more than 30 months of age has recently drawn heightened attention from U.S. trade officials, says USMEF. Removal of this restriction, as well as restrictions on processed beef products, could offer growth opportunities in Korea, especially in a period of tight beef supplies and elevated prices.
Canada’s demand for U.S. beef remained strong in February, with shipments increasing 22% from a year ago to 8403 mt, while value climbed 21% at $71.1M, says USMEF. Through February, shipments to Canada were 21% above last year’s pace at 16,860 mt, valued at $137M. More on February beef exports on the next page.
Liver Exports To Egypt Rose Sharply
Beef exports to Egypt, which are mostly beef livers, trended significantly higher than a year ago in February, climbing 15% to 3390 mt, valued at $6.4M (up 39%), says USMEF. January-February shipments increased 13% to 7420 mt, while value jumped 36% to $13.7M. The Middle East’s largest destination for U.S. beef muscle cuts is the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and shipments stalled late last year due to halal certification issues. Although January-February exports to the UAE were below last year’s volume, demand rebounded significantly compared to the low totals posted in the fourth quarter of 2024. February shipments reached 317 mt, the highest since September. January-February exports to the UAE were 13% higher in value ($10.5M) despite a 30% decline in volume (625 mt). For the entire Middle East region, January-February exports were slightly above last year’s pace in both volume (9,453 mt, up 3%) and value (just under $40 million, up 2%).
Led primarily by growth in the Philippines, February beef exports to the ASEAN region climbed 24% from a year ago to 2230 mt, valued at $16.6M (up 4%), says USMEF. Through February, exports to the region were 15% higher in volume (4091 mt) and 10% higher in value ($32.3M). While shipments to Indonesia were also above last year’s low volume, market access continues to be problematic. USMEF is working with U.S. trade officials to improve the reliability of the Indonesian market, which is an important destination for short plates and beef variety meat but also holds untapped potential for other muscle cuts. Restoring access to Indonesia is a top priority, especially given heightened trade obstacles in China, which takes a similar mix of products, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Central America have dipped slightly in volume in 2025, falling 2% from last year’s record pace at 3860 mt, says USMEF. But value has grown impressively, climbing 20% to $32.8M, led by surging demand in Costa Rica and larger shipments to Guatemala and Panama. February exports to Panama reached the highest monthly value on record at $3.6M. Although down from a year ago, January-February beef exports to Mexico remained relatively strong at 37,269 mt (down 7%), valued at $221.8M (down 5%). Mexico is the largest volume destination for U.S. beef variety meat, and those shipments have trended higher in 2025. Through February, beef variety meat exports to Mexico were up 4% in volume (21,016 mt) and were 5% higher in value ($56.5M). This included strong increases in exports of beef lips ($15.4M, up 12%) and hearts ($8.3M, up 18%), says USMEF.
Exports To Japan Were Down 8%
January-February exports to Japan were down 8% in volume (38,163 mt) and down 6% in value ($283.3M), says USMEF. Beef muscle cut exports to Japan fared better, gaining 2% in value ($228.7M) despite a 5% decline in volume (32,405 mt). But variety meat exports, mainly tongues and skirts, were sharply lower at 5758 mt (down 21%), valued at $54.6M (down 29%). The U.S. is still the leading supplier of tongues to Japan with a 42% market share, followed by Australia and Canada. The U.S. holds 75% market share for chilled tongues, says USMEF.
Taiwan’s demand for U.S. beef surged in the second half of last year but has slowed in 2025, says USMEF. Through February, shipments to Taiwan were down 14% from a year ago to 7126 mt, valued at $87.1M (down 6%). But on a positive note, Taiwan’s imports of U.S. chilled beef increased 13% through February, reaching 3842 mt, and capturing a 73% market share. Beef exports to China/Hong Kong trended lower in February, falling 15% from a year ago to 15,415 mt, valued at $135.5M (down 19%). Because of a strong January performance, exports through February were still 5% above last year at 34,173 mt, although value fell slightly to $298.5M.
Beef export value per head of fed slaughter equated to $432.90 in February, up 5% year-over-year, says USMEF. The January-February average was $399.34 per head, up 3.5%. Exports accounted for a record 14.2% of total February beef production and 11.9% for muscle cuts, each slightly higher than a year ago. The January-February ratios were 13.4% of total production and 10.9% for muscle cuts, compared to 13.3% and 11.1%, respectively, during the same period last year.