RETAIL beef prices declined in August after increasing in July from June. This caused sales to grow by 1.2%, more than the 0.8% increase that was forecast. An increase was expected following the declining sales reported in July, says analyst BobWilson, HedgersEdge.com. The August Choice beef price averaged $10.23 per lb, down from $10.49 per lb in July. The latter price increased from $10.45 per lb in June. USDA’s All Fresh beef price in August averaged $9.64 per lb, down from $9.75 per lb in July. The latter price increased from $9.64 per lb in June. The August price declines were positive for sales but were still 4% to 5% above average prices in August 2025. In addition, the August All Fresh beef price was nearly five times higher than August’s average chicken price of $2.01 per lb and nearly twice as high as pork’s average price of $4.89 per lb.
Retail sales numbers are recorded in nominal dollars spent to create the total, and higher gasoline prices in August certainly impacted the results, says Wilson. Back-to-school spending also accelerated in August, with on-line sales up 2.6% and discretionary categories like electronics and appliance rising 1.6%. Bank of America data showed card spending (credit & debit) per household rising 0.9% month-over-month during August. Those bills are now due and are influencing other purchases. Also during August, slower foot traffic for away-from-home eating was reported. Monthly visits to restaurants dipped 2.4% in August, a larger drop than the previous two months combined. US dining traffic was down across the board and visits fell in nearly every state, says Wilson.
Live Cattle Prices Try To Go Higher
Cash live cattle prices attempt to move higher after three months of sharp declines. The 5-area steer live price the week before last averaged $222.82 per cwt, while the dressed price averaged $350.71 per cwt. These were $33.71 per cwt and 453.95 per cwt, respectively, below prices of the week ended June 7. The June prices were just shy of the record prices for the year set in mid-May. The 15% decline since then was one of the largest in years for the time period and larger than analysts had forecast. Action late in the week before last was with higher prices, $224-$225 per cwt live in the Southern Plains, with a top paid on the Friday evening and Saturday morning at $226 per cwt in Kansas. The weekly average prices in the Southern Plains looked to be just under $225, wrote Wilson.
However, lower prices in the Corn Belt brought down the weekly average. Several thousand cash cattle traded in on the Friday at $222-$225 per cwt live in Nebraska and $220- $224 per cwt live in Iowa. Dressed prices were reported in a full range of $345-$355 per cwt. Offerings from producers on the Southern Plains last Monday morning were $228-$230 per cwt live. The offerings from producers in the Corn Belt were at $227 per cwt live and $355 per cwt dressed. The only trade through Thursday was up north at $222 per cwt live or $350 per cwt dressed. The weekly total harvest level last week was projected to be 533,000 head, although packer margins averaged a positive $80.97 per head for the week. The year-to-date deficit for total cattle harvest now stands at 1.560M head less than the same time frame for 2025, says Wilson. Meanwhile, boxed beef cutout values fell only 4.35 from the first week of June until the week before last, when the national weekly comprehensive cutout averaged $377.26 per cwt. The weekly Choice cutout averaged $375.60 per cwt, versus $391.99 per cwt the first week of June. The daily Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $3.79 per cwt to $372.15 per cwt due to a $3.66 per cwt decline on Thursday.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 101.9%, placed 98.0%, marketed 96.4%: Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com: COF 102.0%, placed 98.0%, marketed 96.0%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 101.4%, placed 93.9%, marketed 95.3%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 101.5%, placed 95%, marketed 96%
THE AugustCattle on Feed (COF) total was the smallest since the current COF data series began in 1996. Placements were expected to be down 6.1% from prior year at 1.671M head, says Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc. head. These cattle determine a part of February–June fed cattle supply. He anticipated a marketing total in August down 4.7% from last year at 1.497M head. This would also be the smallest August outflow for the data series back to 1996, he says. Friday’s COF report likely showed that the September 1 COF total was up 1.8% from September last year, with placements down 2.7% and marketings down 3.8% This is according to the average of analysts polled by Dow Jones ahead of the report.
Front-end supplies (COF 180 plus days) on September 1 were estimated to be 1.933M head, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. This was 697,000 head or 56% above the previous year and 1.25M head above the five-year average. When using the projected marketings for this month and subtracting those from the known total of cattle on feed 150 plus days for September 1, the remainder is a record high number. This carryover level is also the largest difference for this category of cattle above trend in September. Cattle on feed 180 plus days will thus be record high on December 1, adding confirmation that marketable supplies will remain front-end loaded into the new year. Record high carcass weights for this time of year are also being scored, says Wilson.
Placements Remained Small
Although seasonally larger than a month earlier, August feedlot placements remained historically small, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. The marketing pace remained historically slow as well, sustaining a larger September 1 feedlot inventory. Following the historically small January-June feedlot placements, movement into feedyards during July-August followed suit, keeping January-August placements also record small. Hampered by smaller calf crops and limited feeder cattle imports, feeder cattle supplies outside feedyards at mid-year were about 250,000 head smaller than last year, he says.
August placements were projected near 95% of last year’s small volume but far above a month earlier while plunging 13% below the 2016-19 average, says Sands. The continuing downward spiral in monthly feedlot placements reflects the persistent slide in feeder cattle supplies along with the surge to record feeder cattle prices and steepening discounts on deferred fed cattle futures. August feedlot marketings were projected near 96% of last year, again a historically slow marketing pace, pressing monthly sales 22% under the 2016-19 average and record small for the month. While seasonally larger than a month earlier, the estimated September 1 feedlot inventory was near 101.5% of a year earlier and over 5% larger than the 2016-19 average, he says.
CBW RESUMES PUBLICATION
CATTLE BUYERS WEEKLY resumes publication after a three-month hiatus due to Editor & Publisher Steve Kay’s hip replacement surgery (which was successful) and subsequent rehabilitation. Kay wishes to thank the many readers who expressed their support in a variety of ways. This support was especially gratifying and reminded Kay that even after 38 years of publishing CBW, CBW has a remarkably faithful group of readers. CBW apologizes that it was unable to notify its Print readers as to the hiatus in publication. CBW was previously able to notify its Web Readers by email about the hiatus. CBW missed 12 issues since it suspended publication in mid-June. These will be added to each reader’s subscription so that their subscriptions will remain whole and not be impacted by the hiatus. Readers who have any questions should email Steve Kay at [email protected] or at [email protected], or call Steve at 707-849-5500. This is CBW’s new office number as its previous number, 707-765-1725, no longer works. As a result of Steve’s surgery, he vacated an office of 38 years and moved it to his house.
JULY SAW RISE IN BEEF EXPORTS
JULY exports of U.S. beef climbed 6% year-over-year in value while volume was steady, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Although restrictions related to a finding of pseudorabies virus (PRV) were removed in mid-to-late July, pork exports, especially pork variety meats, were still significantly impacted, which contributed to July results trending lower than a year ago.
Beef exports totaled 89,139 metric tons (mt), steady with last July, while value was 6% higher at $796.7M, says USMEF. The value increase was driven primarily by another outstanding month for Taiwan, as well as strong results in Mexico, Japan, the Middle East, Colombia, the Caribbean and the ASEAN region. July shipments to China rebounded slightly from last year’s minimal volumes but remained far below the levels seen in previous years. For January through July, beef exports were 8% below last year’s pace at 634,788 mt, while value was down 2% to $5.53 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports increased 6% in value and were down just 1% in volume from a year ago.
Despite significant headwinds, global demand for U.S. beef remains impressively resilient, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. Technical barriers and uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on exports to China but USMEF is are hopeful that market access will be restored soon. In the meantime, U.S. beef is capitalizing on growth opportunities in Asian and Western Hemisphere markets, as well as in the Middle East, he says.
July pork exports totaled 224,305 mt, down 6% from a year ago, while value also fell 6% to $641.8M. Shipments increased to Japan, Central America, Colombia and Canada in July but these results were offset by lower exports to Mexico, China, South Korea, Oceania and the ASEAN region. Through the first seven months of the year, pork exports remained 2% above last year’s pace at 1.73M mt, valued at $4.86 billion (up 1%).
Putting the PRV-related restrictions on pork variety meats behind it was absolutely critical for the U.S. industry and USMEF appreciates USDA’s efforts in getting this issue fully resolved, says Halstrom. Exports to Mexico rebounded in July but were still below a year ago as it took time to resume production and shipments after the restrictions were lifted mid-month. China also heightened inspections of U.S. pork variety meats and this led to delays clearing shipments. But this obstacle was also recently lifted, he says.
Taiwan, Mexico And Japan Fuel Beef Value
July beef exports to Taiwan reached 5293 mt, up 14% from a year ago, while value climbed 38% to $70.6M, says USMEF. This was the second consecutive month that exports to Taiwan topped $70M. For January through July, exports to Taiwan were 11% above last year’s pace at 36,147 mt, valued at $429.2M (up 15%). In Japan, July beef exports were 4% below last year in volume at 20,104 mt but value increased 9% to $170.8M. For January through July, exports to Japan were 7% below last year’s pace in volume (134,580 mt) but just 1% lower in value at $1.07 billion, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Mexico totaled 18,947 in July, up 19% from a year ago and the highest since March, while value increased 8% to $119.3M, says USMEF. Through July, shipments to Mexico increased 2% in volume (124,418 mt) and 3% in value ($781.8M). Mexico is the leading volume destination for beef variety meat and USDA data show large year-over-year increases in those shipments, 76,510 mt, up 17%, with value up 29% to $228.5M, says USMEF. However, USMEF anticipates a correction to this year’s data that will likely reallocate the dramatically higher beef variety meat volumes to beef muscle cuts. Adjustments are also likely to affect the reported product mix for Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Until these revisions are made, the combined beef and variety meat export data should be utilized, says USMEF. Beef export value equated to $421.07 per head of fed slaughter in July, up 14% from a year ago. The January-July average was $430.25 per head, up 7%. Exports accounted for 12.5% of total July beef production, up from 11.9% a year ago. The January-July ratio was 12.9% of total production, down from 13.3% during the same period last year. More on beef exports on the next page.
Value To Middle East Surged
Fueled by rebounding demand in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, July beef exports to the Middle East totaled 3549 mt, up 3% from a year ago, while value surged 51% to $22.1M, says USMEF. Although July exports to Saudi Arabia were steady with last year, shipments have doubled from a year ago over the past four months to 575 mt, since Saudi Arabia agreed to remove an export verification program that limited access to the market. For January through July, due in part to challenges related to the military conflict in the region, exports to the Middle East were 13% below last year’s pace at 25,698 mt, valued at $130.2M (down 6%).
July beef exports to Colombia reached 450 mt, up 76% from a year ago, while value more than doubled to $4.3M (up 112%), says USMEF. Through July, exports to Colombia were up 39% in volume (2968 mt) and up 91% in value ($34.9M). With exports also increasing to Peru (4404 mt, up 40%, valued at $27.8M, up 38%), January-July shipments to South America were up 8% to 12,237 mt, while value climbed an impressive 27% to $105.9M, says USMEF.
Led by growth in the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and the Netherlands Antilles, July beef exports to the Caribbean reached 2773 mt, up 13% from a year ago, valued at $32.4M (up 33%), says USMEF. January-July exports to the region were 9% higher in volume (20,253 mt) and increased 26% in value ($231.7M). With beef exports to Indonesia increasing from last year’s minimal levels, shipments to the ASEAN region were valued at $25.1M in July, up 14% from a year ago, despite a 15% decline in volume. January-July exports to the region were up 22% in volume (20,203 mt) and up 41% in value ($183.6M). In addition to the rebound in Indonesia, exports were also sharply higher to Vietnam, says USMEF.
While South Korea remains the leading value destination for U.S. beef, exports slowed in July, falling 21% from a year ago to 15,754 mt, while value was down 11% to $165M, says USMEF. Through July, exports to Korea were down 11% to 129,897 mt, valued at $1.31 billion (down 6%). Korea’s central bank recently took actions aimed at curbing inflation and bolstering the won, which had fallen to historic lows versus the U.S. dollar. This should restore some buying power for Korean importers in the months ahead. Australian beef also faces a higher tariff rate in Korea through the end of this year, having exceeded the threshold established in the Korea-Australia FTA in late July. U.S. beef has zero-duty access to Korea, says USMEF.
As noted, July beef exports to China increased from the minimal levels posted a year ago but still totaled just 2532 mt, valued at $21M, says USMEF. While China renewed registrations for U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities in May, following the summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, many plants remain suspended and most exporters are reluctant to ship to China until clarity is achieved regarding residue testing and other potential obstacles, says USMEF.
MEAT INSTITUTE AGAIN REJECTS COOL
THE Meat Institute rejects an executive order by President Trump to explore implementing Mandatory Country-of-Origin-Labeling (mCOOL) for beef products. The Meat Institute appreciates the Administration’s continued focus on strengthening the U.S. beef supply chain and exploring ways to bring beef prices down for consumers, it says. However, the President’s order to explore implementation of mCOOL raises concerns about revisiting a failed policy that the United States has already tried and that Congress ultimately repealed in 2015. The industry should allow the free market to work rather than have the government mandate how beef must be marketed to consumers, it says. Mandatory COOL is all cost, with no demonstrated increase in demand or added value. USDA’s own Chief Economist reached that conclusion in 2015 after the previous mCOOL program imposed roughly $1.5 billion in implementation costs and $200M in annual ongoing costs. The Meat Institute’s recent economic analysis shows the same concerns remain today, it says.