FEBRUARY is the weakest demand month for beef at retail but prices ignored this fact by setting new all-time highs during the month. USDA’s All Fresh retail price averaged a record $9.64 per lb, which was $0.17 per lb higher than January’s average and $1.32 per lb or 16% higher than in February 2025. The Choice beef price averaged $10.12 per lb, versus $9.93 per lb in January and $8.64 per lb in February 2025. The All Beef price beat the old record of $9.55 per lb set last December while the Choice price beat the previous record of $10.08 per c lb set last November and December.
The records suggest that retailers increased their prices in February rather than feature beef more aggressively to boost sales volumes. The price for ground beef also set a new record in February, averaging $6.90 per lb, which was up $0.93 or 16% from the previous year. Roasts averaged $8.93 per lb in February, up $0.93 per lb or 12% from last year. Steaks averaged $14.14 per lb, an increase of $2.29 per lb or 19% from last year and were the second highest on record behind August 2025 at $14.32.
Pork And Chicken Prices Remain Flat
Conversely, the average retail pork price in February was $4.90 per pound, which was up only five cents from January and up only six cents from February last year. Since January 2025, the retail pork price has averaged $4.94 per lb, with a range of $4.84 per lb to $5.08 per lb. February’s retail pork price fell within the range over the last 14 months and was near the average price. The February retail composite broiler price was $2.39 per lb, up a penny from January but the same price as in February 2025. The broiler price has been on a gradual decline since June 2025 when it was $2.49 per lb, say analysts.
U.S. wholesale prices rose more than expected in February, driven partly by a sharp increase in food costs, says the Associated Press. The Labor Department reported last Wednesday that its producer price index, which measures inflation before it hits consumers, rose 0.7% from January and 3.4% from February 2025. Food prices rose 2.4% from January, led by a 49% surge in vegetable prices and a 10% increase in fruit prices. Food prices are still down compared to a year ago but some economists see problematic trends developing on the inflation front, starting with the higher prices that producers are now paying, says the AP.
Meanwhile, cash live cattle prices fell again the week before last. The 5-area prices averaged $234.83 per cwt live or $372.04 dressed. These were down $5.11 per cwt and $7.78 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. In contrast, the weekly comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $290.66 per cwt, up $9.49 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout rose above $400 per cwt early last week.
Meanwhile, fed cattle grade a record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the third week in a row. For the week ended March 7, cattle graded 14.57% Prime and 73.47% Choice. The total of 88.03% exceeded the prior week’s record of 87.89%. This has narrowed the price spread between Prime and other beef. The comprehensive cutout the week before last showed that Prime beef averaged $399.99 per cwt, while branded beef averaged $393.95 per cwt and Choice beef averaged $388.16 per cwt. Carcass weights began the year at new record highs for all three categories. They have since declined but remain well above year earlier levels. Steer weights in the week ended March 7 averaged 986 lbs, up 41 lbs on the same week last year.
STRIKE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON PRICES
THE strike at JBS’s Greeley, Colo., beef processing plant appears so far to have had only a light impact on cash live cattle and wholesale beef prices. Cattle prices began to fall well before the strike began last Monday (although the plant processed no cattle the week before). Boxed beef prices were also increasing before the strike began. The Greeley plant is the second largest in the U.S. in terms of capacity. It and six other plants have a maximum slaughter capacity of 6000 head per day. The largest plant is Tyson Foods’ Dakota City, Neb., plant at 7000 head per day. JBS appears to have made a variety of contingency plans before the strike by most of the 3800 union workers at the Greeley plant. The strike is the first at a major U.S. meat plant in 40 years.
Cattle slaughter levels through Thursday last week were subdued but not much lower than expected, say analysts. New inputs available last Tuesday suggest that the lighter than expected cattle harvest on Monday (an estimated 98,000 head) was not due to strike influences but was instead attributable to cow harvesting operation slowdowns, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Some shifting of cattle numbers and increased weekend activity at other JBS operations is expected to offset the strike action at the Greeley plant for now, with the total harvest level for last week expected to be approximately 525,000 head, he says.
As with any labor dispute, the strike has a back history and several claims and counter-claims. The United Food and Commercial Workers International Union last year agreed to a new long-term labor contract covering about 26,000 workers across more than a dozen JBS facilities in the U.S. But the union local representing about 3800 Greeley workers opted out of the national deal, saying it did not account for the higher cost of living in Colorado. JBS and the Greeley union local negotiated for months on a new labor contract but weren’t able to reach an agreement. The union said JBS has refused wage increases that keep pace with inflation. It wants the company to stop charging employees for certain protective equipment, such as gloves, that they wear to do their jobs. JBS is more interested in a labor dispute at the Greeley plant than resolving these issues, said Kim Cordova, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union local that represents Greeley workers.
JBS Say Team Members Want Stability
In response last Monday, BS spokesperson Nikki Richardson said: This morning, many JBS Greeley team members chose to report to work rather than participate in the strike called by UFCW Local 7, and we expect that number to continue increasing in the days ahead. Our team members want stability, they want to support their families and they deserved the opportunity to vote on the company’s historic offer, an opportunity the union leadership has denied them. We are paying all team members who come to work and we are operating the facility to the best of our ability this week,” she said.
To ensure continuity for its customers and partners, JBS is temporarily adjusting production across its network as needed, said Richardson. By utilizing available capacity at other JBS facilities, it can maintain supply, protect the long‑term stability of the beef chain and minimize disruption for consumers and retailers. JBS’s priority is to keep product moving while it works toward a resolution in Greeley. JBS remains focused on supporting its team members. Any employee who reports for their scheduled shift will have work available and will be paid. JBS will continue scaling operations as more team members return, she said.
JBS does not believe a strike is in the best interest of its team members or their families, said Richardson. JBS stands by the offer it presented. It is strong, fair, and consistent with the historic national contract reached in 2025. The union’s claim about personal protective gear is inaccurate, she said. Employees are only responsible for paying for equipment if it is lost or maliciously damaged. JBS began canceling cattle shipments and halting slaughter at the plant in preparation for a potential strike. The company shifted cattle deliveries from feedlots to its other large processing facilities across the U.S., such as Grand Island, Neb., and Cactus, Texas. But even a temporary plant closure leaves cattle feeders with one less plant to deliver cattle to and could put more pressure on live cattle prices, say analysts.
PORK EXPORTS START STRONG
EXPORTS of U.S. pork, notably to Mexico, start the year strongly, while beef exports were lower but their highest value per head of fed slaughter since last March. January pork exports totaled 250,861 metric tons (mt), up 3% from a year ago, while value increased 4% to $692.1M. In addition to Mexico, exports were larger year-over-year to Japan, South Korea, Canada, Central America, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, the ASEAN and Taiwan. January beef exports were lower than a year ago due to the prolonged lockout in China but export’s value reflected solid demand in other markets, says the U.S. Meat Export federation (USMEF). Beef variety meats were a major bright spot, with export value topping the previous monthly high reached in December.
January was a very impressive start to the year for U.S. pork in Mexico and other Western Hemisphere markets but strengthening demand in Asian destinations is especially encouraging, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. The U.S. industry continues to capitalize on consumers’ growing demand for convenience-oriented products at both retail and foodservice and this is reflected in recent export results. Beef exports totaled 92,558 mt in January, down 10% year-over-year. But value fell just 3% to $780.1M, as exports have commanded higher prices. However, prices are still not being maximized to the degree that would be possible with China back in the mix, he says. When excluding China from the January results, exports increased 5% in volume and climbed 16% in value. January beef shipments trended higher year-over-year to Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Caribbean, the ASEAN and South America, with export value also increasing to Mexico, Canada and Central America, says USMEF.
Beef variety meat exports were especially strong in January, increasing 6% from a year ago to 27,511 mt, while value soared 46% to a record for the month of $126M. Beef variety meat value reaching new heights for the second consecutive month is great news for cattle producers and for the entire supply chain, says Halstrom. With cattle numbers being tight, it is more critical than ever to maximize the value of every part of the animal. And while much of this export growth was driven by tongues and skirts going to Japan, demand was strong in a wide range of markets, he says.
Pork Exports See Broad Growth
Coming off a fifth consecutive record year, pork exports to Mexico remained on a roll in January, increasing 3% from a year ago to 107,902 mt, says USMEF. Export value climbed 8% to $238.7M. As USMEF has previously reported, U.S. pork faces a potential headwind in Mexico due to antidumping and anti-subsidy investigations on U.S. hams and shoulders. Led by the National Pork Producers Council and USMEF, as well as individual company participation, the U.S. industry has responded in great detail to the Mexican government’s requests for information, demonstrating that U.S. export growth is demand-driven and refuting concerns about dumping or subsidization, says USMEF.
Pork exports to Japan totaled 27,910 mt in January, up 22% from a year ago and the largest since last May, says USMEF. Export value was $103.8M, up 14%. With the U.S. and Japan continuing to work on a reciprocal trade deal, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was set to visit the White House last week. USMEF does not expect any impact on red meat market access in Japan, as the U.S. continues to benefit from the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement reached in President Trump’s first term. But a reciprocal deal could further solidify general trade relations between the two nations, it says.
As noted, January exports of U.S. beef variety reached 27,511 mt, the highest since September 2021, says USMEF. Export value reached a record $126M (up 46%). Shipments to Japan soared 88% to 6137 mt (also the highest since September 2021), while value climbed to $54.7M, up 84% and the highest since November 2021. Variety meat exports also increased year-over-year to Korea, Taiwan, Peru, Chile and South Africa. Exports to Mexico were down slightly in volume but still increased in value. Total beef and beef variety meat exports to Japan reached 19,956 mt in January, up 5% from a year ago, valued at $149.5M (up 7%), says USMEF. More on exports on the next page.
Beef Exports To Taiwan Surge
The U.S. and Taiwan have completed a reciprocal trade deal that removes barriers for U.S. beef, although these favorable terms have not yet been implemented, says USMEF. But exports to Taiwan had an outstanding start to the year, reaching 5631 mt valued at $63M. This was 79% higher in volume and 63% higher in value than the low totals posted in January 2025. January beef exports to leading value market Korea totaled 19,482 mt, up 4% from a year ago, while value increased 6% to $192.6M. This marked the first month in which U.S. beef entered the market duty-free under the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, with tariffs being phased to zero over 15 years. Pre-FTA, Korea tariffed U.S. beef at 40%. Australia is expected to trigger its safeguard on exports to Korea by mid-year. Retailers are looking to secure more U.S. beef to minimize the impact of higher tariffs on Australian beef in the second half, says USMEF.
Beef exports to the Middle East were down 12% from a year ago to 4488 mt, mainly due to lower variety meat shipments to Egypt, but export value still increased 1% to $21.7 million. Exporters serving the region received positive news this week when Saudi Arabia confirmed that it will eliminate burdensome regulations that have hampered U.S. exports for more than a decade. Saudi Arabia was once a $30M per year market for U.S. beef with tremendous potential for further growth, possibly in the $100M to $150M range, but took less than $10M in U.S. exports last year. The military conflict with Iran has impacted exporters’ options for shipping to the Middle East, which will be reflected in later months’ export results, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Central America set a value record in 2025, topping $200M for the first time despite a slight decline in volume, says USMEF. This trend continued in January, as exports to the region soared 22% in value ($19.2M) on slightly lower volume (1910 mt, down 1%). January exports to Guatemala were nearly $10M, up 33%. Led by growth in the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas, January beef exports to the Caribbean reached 2962 mt, up 7% from a year ago, while value soared 30% to $32.1M.
Fueled by larger shipments to Indonesia and Vietnam, January beef exports to the ASEAN increased 24% from a year ago to 2303 mt, while value was 7% higher at $16.8M, says USMEF. While U.S. exports to Indonesia have recently rebounded after being effectively locked out of the market, the current level of business only scratches the surface of Indonesia’s tremendous potential. As USMEF has previously reported, a recently announced reciprocal trade agreement with Indonesia includes substantial market access gains for U.S. beef.
Although small volumes of still-eligible pipeline product continue to be exported to China, U.S. beef remains effectively locked out of the world’s largest import market, says USMEF. January exports to China were minimal, down 94% from nearly 16,000 mt last year, while value was down 97% from $135M. China’s newly implemented beef safeguards will also have major effects in the global beef market later this year, likely pushing more Brazilian and Australian beef into the U.S. and international markets, says USMEF.
Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averaged $415.15 in January, up 12% from a year ago and the largest since March 2025, which was prior to losing access to China. Exports accounted for 12.8% of total January beef production, up slightly from a year ago. The ratio of muscle cuts exported was 9.6%, down from 10.2% in January 2025.
AG-SECURITY LINK: The federal government elevates agriculture as a key element of national security for the first time in history with the implementation of its new National Farm Security Action Plan. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth sign a Memorandum of Understanding that memorializes the relationship between the two departments. The MOU establishes a formal framework for the USDA and DoW agencies to collaborate more closely to defend the nation’s food and agricultural systems, say the two departments.