CASH live cattle prices soften ahead of last Monday’s Labor Day holiday as packers were buying for a shortened production week. But prices were expected to be fully steady last week as packers bought cattle for a full week’s kill. In fact, analysts expect prices to remain firm through September even as they forecast that boxed beef values will decline from their highest levels of the year. The national boxed beef comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last surged to an average $404.37 per cwt, up $10.39 per cwt from the prior week. This meant the cutout increased by $40.68 per cwt in August.
The week before last saw USDA’s 5-area steer price average $243.60 per cwt live or $385.65 per cwt dressed. The live price was down $0.65 per cwt from the previous week’s all-time record price. The dressed price was down $0.52 per cwt from the prior week’s all-time record of $386.17 per cwt. The cash trade last week was again slow to develop. Trade was light through Wednesday, with prices up north at $243 per cwt live or $383 per cwt dressed. Prices down south were at $242 per cwt live. A more active trade began Thursday morning in all regions at similar price levels.
90CL Price Sets New Record High
The Choice cutout in the national comprehensive report averaged $403.63 per cwt, up $10.76 per cwt from the week before, while the Select cutout averaged $380.12, up $10.64 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 58.0% of the total volume of 6471 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 25.8%, forward sales accounted for 16.2% and export sales accounted for 11.6%. One feature of the week before last was that the average price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) set a new all-time record for the fourth week in a row. It averaged $431.66 per cwt, up from the record $427.91 per cwt of the prior week. It was up 14.8% from the same week last year. Despite the holiday-shortened production week, the Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $1.20 per cwt to $414.21 per cwt and the Select cutout declined by $2.23 per cwt to $387.77 per cwt. The three-day volume was light at 282 loads of cuts.
Carcass weights in the latest reported week ended August 23 moved sharply higher from the week before. Steer weights averaged 952 lbs, up 9 lbs on the prior week and up 21 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 858 lbs, up 1 lb from the week before and up 18 lbs from last year. Overall weights averaged 872 lbs, up 6 lbs from the week before and up 19 lbs from last year. This was the equivalent of adding 12,375 head to that week’s slaughter total of 555,676 head, says HedgersEdge.com. Cattle continue to grade a high percentage of Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage in the latest reported week ended August 23 was 84.21%.
The supply side of the market remains positive for the foreseeable future, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. This reflects the successive months of reduced placements earlier this year. It should also be noted that marketings have been reduced over this time period. The economics of adding additional pounds to current inventory versus the higher break-evens derived from replacement costs is slowing marketing rates and volumes. Reduced weekly kills will be necessary to advance or maintain beef cutout values following their recent price surge. Such action on the part of packing industry is likely. Although some increase in weekly kills should occur this fall, that gain may be rather limited unless demand gains are also realized, he says.
TYSON REASSURES INVESTORS ABOUT SUCCESSION
TYSON Foods sought last Thursday to reassure investors that it has succession plans in place, after earlier announcing that an executive seen by some analysts as a possible future CEO left the company over conduct violations. Tyson said late last Tuesday that Chief Supply Chain Officer Brady Stewart, who also oversaw its beef, pork and prepared foods businesses, ran afoul of its code of conduct. Tyson representatives did not respond to questions about the violations, says Reuters. Tyson appointed Devin Cole, who led its poultry and international businesses as chief operating officer, and said Cole will oversee those units plus beef, pork and prepared foods.
Tyson’s shares fell to a one-month low last Wednesday as the management change caught investors and analysts by surprise. Some had considered Stewart, a former COO for Smithfield Foods, as a candidate to eventually succeed Tyson CEO Donnie King. “We have a very robust succession mechanism in place at our company,” Cole said on a webcast at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference. When asked about his expanded role, Cole said he had been around the beef, pork and prepared foods businesses during his time at Tyson and did not expect major changes.
MEXICO CATTLE EXPORTS WILL FALL TO ZERO
MEXICO’S cattle exports are forecast to decrease to zero in 2026 and closure of the border is expected to result in cattle missing their export windows, which will lead to an increased supply of cattle in Mexico’s domestic market. That’s according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS in an annual report that provided a 2026 market outlook for Mexico’s cattle and beef imports and exports. According to the report, Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. remain suspended due to ongoing cases of New World Screwworm (NWS).
Mexican producers are expected to increase domestic slaughter and beef production to 7.6M head and 2.5M metric tons (mt) carcass weight equivalent (CWE), respectively, a 6% increase, says FAS. Beef consumption is projected to rise to 2.4 mt CWE, a 5% increase, supported by population growth and rising demand from commercial and meat processing sectors. Imports are forecast at 300,000 mt CWE, a 5% increase, while exports are forecast at 350,000 mt CWE, an 11% increase, as greater domestic supply allows Mexico to respond to global demand. The projected rise in beef exports from Mexico is supported by the combination of strong demand for beef, particularly in the U.S., and on a smaller scale in Canada, Japan and South Korea, says FAS.
OSCAR MAYER WILL SPLIT FROM KRAFT HEINZ
THE Kraft Heinz Co. plans to break up the company into two independent, publicly-traded companies. The split is intended to maximize Kraft Heinz’s capabilities and brands while reducing complexity, according to the company. One business is being called the North American Grocery Co. and will include brands like Kraft Singles, Lunchables and Oscar Mayer. They had approximately $10.4 billion in sales in 2024. The company is expected to generate cash flow through operational efficiency across stable growth categories and through the pursuit of growth opportunities for its brands in existing categories, adjacencies and away from home, according to the company. Another business, which will be renamed later and is now being called the Global Taste Elevation Co., will include brands like Heinz, Philadelphia and Kraft Mac & Cheese. They generated $15.4 billion in sales in 2024. Nearly 75% of the business’ sales will come from sauces, spreads and seasonings. It also will have a presence in emerging markets and away-from-home categories, says the company.
WHITE HOUSE BEEF KING: William Howard Taft is known for being one of the physically largest U.S. presidents and he had an appetite to match. According to former White House head housekeeper Elizabeth Jaffray, Taft came down for his morning meal a little before 8:30 a.m. and as a rule would eat two oranges, a 12-ounce beefsteak, several pieces of toast and butter and a vast quantity of coffee, with cream and sugar. However, there was one breakfast standard you’d never find him eating: According to Jaffray, President Taft liked every sort of food with the exception of eggs.
AUSTRALIA WILL BREAK PRODUCTION RECORD
AUSTRALIA’S beef industry is on track to break production records in 2025, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s latest projections. Despite a slight easing in herd numbers, the national cattle herd is forecast to remain stable at 31M head, supported by strong seasonal conditions in the north and strategic herd management in the south. These figures reflect the latest seasonal, market and production data, says MLA’s Erin Lukey. These projections are a vital tool for the red meat industry. They provide a clear, evidence-based outlook that helps producers, processors and exporters make informed decisions. By understanding the trends in herd composition, production capacity and global demand, the industry can better plan for the future and remain competitive in a dynamic global market, she says (as reported by Beef Central).
The assumptions are based on a better than average spring season outlook, says MLA. The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest outlook suggests spring conditions will diverge from the past two years, with much of the east coast having a 75% chance of above-median rainfall. If realized, the impact will vary by region. Slaughter is forecast to rise 8.6% to 9.02M head in 2025, supported by robust cattle supply and processing capacity. Carcass weights are expected to remain stable at 309.5 kilograms per head (682 lbs), a historically high level. This stability is underpinned by a strong proportion of grain-fed cattle in the slaughter mix and solid feed availability following autumn rainfall, says MLA.
While increased female slaughter typically reduces average weights, the impact has been offset by improved pasture conditions resulting in higher quality cows, and the continued trend of finishing cattle at heavier weights through feedlots and improved pasture systems, says Lukey. The herd has evolved to support higher turn-off without compromising productivity. This is a reflection of improved breeding efficiency and a shift toward more strategic herd management across the board, she says.
Exports Will Reach 1.5M Metric Tons
Australia’s beef exports are forecast to reach 1.5M metric tons shipped weight in 2025, as Australia continues to capitalize on global supply constraints caused by declining production in key competitor markets such as the U.S. and Brazil, says MLA. With the U.S. moving into a herd rebuild phase and Brazil facing herd contraction following heavy slaughter and drought recovery, Australia is uniquely positioned to meet rising international demand. This export strength is further supported by Australia’s robust processing capacity, consistent product quality and long-standing trade relationships across North Asia, North America and Southeast Asia, says MLA.
The Australian herd is expected to remain stable through 2026 before easing slightly in 2027 due to drier seasonal conditions, says MLA. However, ongoing improvements in carcass weights and processing efficiency are expected to support high production levels. This stability is supported by consistent seasonal conditions in northern Australia and cautious stocking practices in the south, where producers are prioritizing core breeding stock over expansion. The industry’s focus is shifting from expansion to maintaining productivity and sustainability, says Lukey. This positions the industry well to respond to both domestic and international demand in the years ahead, ensuring that Australia continues to lead in efficiency, quality and resilience across the global red meat supply chain. Slaughter in 2026 is forecast to ease 3.3% to 8.72M head, says MLA.
Meanwhile, Australians are buying more beef despite higher prices. Domestic beef and veal prices increased by 6% in the 12 months to June 30, says the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Despite the higher prices at retail, beef purchase volumes have held up and have even risen slightly. That’s according to NeilsenIQ Homescan data provided to Beef Central by MLA, showing that beef purchase volumes rose by 0.2%. So what is behind the resilience in beef sales volumes during a period of rising retail prices, asks Beef Central. Sydney retailer Stephen Kelly of Sutcliffe Meats, who owns and runs five large shopping center butcheries across Sydney and Newcastle, pointed to a couple of different dynamics at play. Retail beef prices rose during the COVID-19 period from March 2020 to March 2022 by as much as 20-25%. However, since then, retail beef prices have remained relatively stable, albeit with some seasonal highs and lows, he says. More on the next page.
6% Rise Is Called Modest
Compared to the price rises due to COVID, the 6% rise over the 12 months to June 30 2025 can be considered modest, and consumers would not change their protein choices because of it, says Kelly. This contrasted with retail prices for lamb which he said had risen more than 30% in some instances during 2025. In his experience, sales volumes for beef have increased slightly over the past 12-24 months but this was probably due to increased availability. Slaughter numbers began to increase from around mid-2023 and continued to rise during 2024 and 2025. Numbers are still approximately 30-35pc above the same period in 2023, he says.
Export dynamics have also had an influence on the domestic retail market this year, says Kelly. The increase in numbers has seen beef exports rise substantially, with strong demand overseas negating the need for processors to divert product on to the domestic market. This diversion normally happens (extra product to domestic market) and results in price falls but it has not happened this year. Rising consumer preference for eating at home as opposed to at hotels or restaurants may have also contributed to more resilient beef purchase volumes this year. Another factor in the slight increase in beef volumes at retail is the decrease in volumes sold through the food service sector. Consumers still enjoy beef whether it be ground beef or a steak. They just prefer to eat it at home these days rather than at a restaurant, pub or club, he says.
Meanwhile, Australia’s beef exports in 2025 remain on track to smash all-time records, with August shipments continuing the recent boom. Monthly shipment data showed that chilled and frozen exports to all destinations last month topped 135,570 metric tons (mt), the second highest monthly volume on record, exceeded only by the previous month of July when exports topped 150,000 mt, says Beef Central
To put the past two months’ export volume performance into perspective, Australian beef exports had never previously exceeded 130,000 mt before October last year, says Beef Central. August shipments were 13,700 mt or 11% higher than August last year. For the calendar year ended August 30, beef exports to all markets reached 988,223 mt, up 133,000 mt or almost 16% on the same seven months last year. That number is all the more noteworthy because of the flooding and cyclone-related delays in production and logistics that occurred earlier this year. The calendar year record of 1.34M mt set last year will now inevitably be exceeded this year, barring some major catastrophe like cyclones or disease outbreak. At current rates of production, it’s looking extremely likely that the 2025 calendar year will set a new record somewhere above 1.45M mt, say Beef Central.
A key feature about the record-setting export pace is that it is being done with far fewer cattle than it was last time volume records were set, says Beef Central. That was in 2014-15 when the processing industry was at full pace due to drought liquidation. Clearly heavier carcass weights and more grain feeding are more than offsetting the larger slaughter numbers seen a decade ago, says Beef Central.
Another key feature about the record export trend is that it is not dependent on any one particular customer but rather, substantial growth in all four largest customers (the U.S. Japan, Korea, China) as well as progress in smaller customers like Indonesia and Canada. While most first-tier export customers showed small declines in volume last month, this was coming off near record setting pace a month earlier. Exports to China in August reached 22,373 mt, down 22% from the previous month but were 7200 mt or 47% higher than last year.
Exports to the U.S. last month reached 40,750 mt, down about 6% from the near-record volume in July but still historically high as U.S. domestic beef production continues to dwindle, says Beef Central. For the calendar year to the end of August, Australian exports to the U.S. totaled 286,876 mt, up 52,000 mt or 27% on the same time last year. This reflected current low U.S. production, especially for manufacturing beef but increasingly for fed cattle as well. The current low rate of cow slaughter being experienced in New Zealand was another factor in Australia’s surge in exports to the U.S. last month and throughout the first half of 2025.