CASH live cattle prices and boxed beef cutout values plunge, as expected, as the market enters its September swoon after the Labor Day holiday. Cattle prices put in their summer highs in the week ended August 24 but subsequently eased the next two weeks and then fell again on the spot market last week. Boxed beef prices put in their weekly highs for the year the week before last but prices plunged the first four days of last week.
The week before last saw USDA’s 5-area steer price average $242.55 per cwt live or $383.15 per cwt dressed. The live price was down $1.05 per cwt from the previous week, while the dressed price was down $2.50 per cwt from the prior week. The cash trade last week was again slow to develop. Virtually the only trade through Wednesday was up north, where 21,648 head sold in a range of $237-245 per cwt live or $375-382 per cwt dressed. Prices down south for a few loads of cattle were at $235-238 per cwt live. This suggested that prices down south are starting to move to a premium to prices up north because of the absence of Mexican feeder cattle in Southern Plains feedlots. A light to moderate trade occurred Thursday morning up north while trade down south remained extremely light.
90CL Price Sets New Record High
Meanwhile, the average price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) sets a new all-time record for the fifth week in a row. It averaged $435.31 per cwt, up from the record $431.66 per cwt of the prior week. The Choice cutout in the national comprehensive report that week averaged $409.20 per cwt, up $4.83 per cwt from the week before, while the Select cutout averaged $385.31, up $5.19 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 61.9% of the total volume of 5747 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 27.5%, forward sales accounted for 10.6% and export sales accounted for 10.1%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $9.97 per cwt to $400.79 per cwt and the Select cutout declined by $5.24 per cwt to $379.95 per cwt.
Carcass weights in the latest reported week ended August 30 were slightly higher than the week before. Steer weights averaged 953 lbs, up 1 lb on the prior week and up 20 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 865 lbs, up 7 lbs from the week before and up 23 lbs from last year. Overall weights averaged 874 lbs, up 2 lbs from the week before and up 22 lbs from last year. This was the equivalent of adding 14,630 head to that week’s slaughter total of 566,581 head, says HedgersEdge.com. Cattle continue to grade above 84% for Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage in the latest reported week ended August 30 was 84.19%.
The weekly volumes in the beef trade were disappointing the week before last week, even for a holiday week, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. Total weekly export loads were notched at 574 loads, down from the holiday week last year as well. Domestic sales and out-front sales for beef were down sharply. Maintaining positive beef demand going forward will represent the greatest challenge to the industry, he says. Can the level of demand seen to date be maintained, or will consumers gravitate toward the competing meats as they offer lower prices? The elusive factors determining value will lean more and more toward cheaper if overall economic slowdowns emerge, he says. Top-end wage earners will likely continue their level of beef demand. But lower-level wage earners are beginning to feel more pressure on their wallets, which may unfortunately limit similar demand gains in the future, he says.
BEEF EXPORTS REMAIN WEAK
BEEF exports remained weak in July as market access obstacles to China continued to weigh heavily on shipments, with the vast majority of U.S. plants still ineligible to ship to China. July beef exports totaled 89,579 metric tons (mt), down 19% from a year ago and the lowest in five years, says the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Export value declined 17% to $752.5M, the lowest since January 2023. From January through July, exports were 8% below last year in volume (691,800 mt) and down 7.5% in value ($5.67 billion).
July exports of U.S. pork were slightly below last year but accounted for a larger share of production, says USMEF. They totaled 238,922 mt, down just 1% from a year ago, while value fell 4% to $680.9M. This largely reflected the 10% decline in pork variety meat prices due to China’s tariffs. Through the first seven months of 2025, pork exports were 4% below last year’s record pace in both volume (1.69M mt) and value ($4.8 billion). While July exports to Mexico didn’t match the monster totals from a year ago, demand for U.S. pork remains very robust in the top market, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. July also saw great results in Central and South America, while volumes to key Asian markets were largely steady with last year and pork variety meat volumes achieved broad-based growth, he says.
July pork exports to Mexico totaled 92,524 mt, down 8% year-over-year, while value reached $228.4M, down 7% from a year ago, says USMEF. But this was still the second highest this year after the near-record in June and the sixth highest on record. Mexico accounted for 10.9% of U.S. pork muscle cut production in July and from January through July, up from 10.6% in the same period last year. Through July, exports to Mexico were 2% above last year’s record pace at 678,815 mt, while value increased 6% to $1.53 billion.
Fueled by surging demand in Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Panama, pork exports to Central America are also on a record pace in 2025, says USMEF. July shipments to the region climbed 35% from a year ago to 14,563 mt, while value increased 36% to $47.4M. July shipments were the third highest on record to both Costa Rica and El Salvador. Through July, exports to Central America jumped 22% in volume (103,823 mt) and 24% in value ($329.4M).
U.S Beef Is Shut Out Of China
The decline in beef exports was largely due to China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, most of which expired in March, says USMEF. China has also suspended 11 U.S. beef facilities since June. The plant registration impasse with China unfortunately drags on, and it has left U.S. beef essentially shut out of the market after exporters worked through their eligible inventories, says Halstrom. Demand elsewhere has remained fairly resilient, even in the face of higher pricing, but restoring access to China is clearly the urgent priority. Export value and share of production exported declined in July, reflecting the loss of competing bids from Chinese buyers, he says.
July was a robust month for beef exports to leading market South Korea, with shipments climbing 13% from a year ago to 19,907 mt, says USMEF. Export value increased 10% to $186.4M. Through July, exports were 9% above last year’s pace in both volume (146,084 mt) and value ($1.39 billion). President Trump announced a trade deal with Korea at the end of July but no details on agricultural trade have yet been released. Korea still maintains a ban on U.S. beef from cattle more than 30 months of age and restricts certain products derived from cattle less than 30 months of age. Korea also continues to require Canadian cattle be fed for at least 100 days in the U.S. All are BSE-related restrictions that are out of line with international standards. Removing these barriers would expand opportunities for U.S. exporters to the tune of $140M annually, says USMEF.
Strong demand in Korea could not offset the sharp decline in July beef exports to China, which plunged 92% from a year ago to just 1110 mt. Export value dropped 94% to less than $8M. Despite a fairly strong first quarter, January-July exports to China were down 46% to 55,632 mt, while value fell 47% to $481.4M. China in 2024 was the third largest value market for U.S. beef exports and the fourth largest volume market.
Exports To Japan Were Down
July beef exports to Japan were down 4% from a year ago to 21,048 mt, while value fell 10% to $156.7M, says USMEF. Through July, exports were down 3% in volume (145,053 mt) and down 7% in value ($1.08 billion). Mexico’s demand for U.S. beef softened in July, with exports totaling 15,973 mt, down 24% from a year ago, and value falling 10% to $110.8M. Through July, exports to Mexico were down 9% in volume (122,061 mt) and down 3% in value ($758.1M). For muscle cut volume, Brazil is now the largest supplier of beef to Mexico. Beef exports to Taiwan continued to trend lower in July, falling 24% from a year ago to 4655 mt, while value declined 26% to $51.2M. January-July exports were down 12% to 32,521 mt, while value fell 8% to $372.5M.
Led by growth in the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Leeward-Windward Islands, July beef exports to the Caribbean totaled 2458 mt, up 7% from a year ago, while value climbed 20% to $24.3M, says USMEF. Through July, export value to the region increased 13% to $184.5M despite a 6% decline in volume (18,645 mt). Although July beef exports to Central America were modestly lower than a year ago (1353 mt, down 4%), value still increased 36% to $14M and exports to top market Guatemala were up 9% to 756 mt. Through July, exports to the region were 7% above last year’s record pace in volume (13,008 mt), while value soared 32% to $117.2M.
Fueled by strong demand in Chile, July beef exports to South America totaled 1,756 mt, up 24% from a year ago, while value increased 57% to $13M. July beef variety meat exports to Peru were the largest of the year at 520 mt. January-July shipments to the region increased 6% to 11,344 mt, while value climbed an impressive 41% to $83.6 M, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Africa, which are mainly variety meat, have trended higher in 2025, driven by strong shipments to Cote d’Ivoire, Morocco and Gabon, says USMEF. July exports were up 14% from a year ago to 934 mt, while value increased 60% to just under $2M. Through July, shipments to Africa increased 20% to 8099 mt, while value climbed 40% to $13.3M. Driven in part by larger variety meat shipments, July beef exports to the Philippines increased 51% from a year ago to 1921 mt, valued at $12.5M (up 9%). Through July, exports to the Philippines increased 11% to 10,019 mt, while value was up 4% to $79.1M. This included a sharp increase in variety meat exports, which were up 73% in volume (838 mt) and 72% in value ($2.1M).
Although not affecting the July export results, halal-related trade barriers were recently minimized for U.S. beef in two key markets, says USMEF. U.S. beef entering the United Arab Emirates is no longer limited to the Port of Dubai and no longer restricted to the foodservice sector. The Indonesian government has also taken steps to reopen the market to U.S. beef, ending an impasse that had halted most U.S. shipments.
July beef exports equated to $368.09 per head of fed slaughter, down 12% from a year ago, says USMEF. Through July, the per head average was down 4% to $403.89. Exports accounted for 11.9% of total July beef production and 10% for muscle cuts, down significantly from the respective July 2024 ratios of 14% and 11.6%. For January through July, exports accounted for 13.3% of total production and 11.1% of muscle cuts, down from 14.1% and 11.8%, respectively, during the same period last year.
MERGER APPROVED: The proposed merger between Marfrig Global Foods S.A. and BRF S.A. has been approved by Brazil’s Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE). The Brazilian antitrust authority approved the transaction without any restrictions, confirming a previous decision from the General Superintendence. Under the deal, Marfrig will acquire all BRF shares that are not currently under its control. In return, the acquired company’s shareholders would receive Marfrig shares. The two companies will become a single entity known as MBRF Global Foods Company S.A. Marfrig focuses on the production of high value-added, animal-protein-based foods, primarily beef, including hamburgers and other ready-to-eat products. Food manufacturer BRF operates in the breeding, production and slaughter of pork and poultry, as well as the processing, marketing and distribution of fresh meats, processed products, pasta, margarine, pet food and other products.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 98.7%, placed 89.8%, marketed 87.6%; Kevin Coburn, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 98.2%, placed 86.0%, marketed 86.6%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 98.7%, placed 89.4%, marketed 87.5%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 99.1%, placed 91.1%, marketed 87.0%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 99.4%, placed 93.4%, marketed 86.8%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 99.5%, placed 93.3%, marketed 86.7%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 99%, placed 89%, marketed 87%
AUGUST MARKETINGS FELL WELL SHORT
AUGUST feedlot marketing fell far short of a year ago, which kept the September 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total just shy of a year ago. This Friday’s COF report is likely to show that August marketings were only 87% of last year (the average forecast of CBW’s seven analysts). Even adding 4.5% for one less slaughter day this year, marketings fell an estimated 8.5% short of last year. August placements were likely about 90% of last year, while the Sept 1 COF total was about 1% below last year.
The September 1 COF total was the lowest total for the date since 2019, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. It was down 0.9% from the prior year and was 159,000 head below the previous five-year average or down 1.4%. However, front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on September 1 were estimated to be 3.017M head. This was 478,000 or 18.8% above the previous year and 23.8% above the previous five-year average, an increase of 581,000 head. Carcass weight data confirms that fed cattle supplies remain front-end loaded, he says.
Tight feeder cattle supplies, record high live cattle prices and escalating breakevens continued to dominate the feedlot placement discussion in recent weeks, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. The smaller feeder supply in the wake of smaller calf crops and the Mexican border closure is colliding with excess feedlot capacity. A significant part of that overall tightness relates to the Mexican border closure. Since the start of the year, feeder cattle imports from Mexico are nearly 725,000 head smaller than a year earlier. Adding to the shortfall from late last year, feeder cattle imports are nearly 900,000 head smaller than a year earlier. There also remains some risk that the 2024 calf crop may have been overestimated, he says. It’s also likely that a few more heifers are being diverted to the breeding herd. The large decline in feeder supplies has driven feeder/fed spreads to historical levels and hampered feedlot placements in recent months. But this has yet to materialize in significantly smaller feedlot inventories. Still, the ultimate trend in feeder supplies and a subsequent decline in feedlot placements is readily apparent and will continue to weigh on slaughter capacity utilization in the months ahead, he says.
Although feedlot placements over the last four months were down more than 8%, the decline in feedlot inventories was much smaller, says Sands. This apparent divergence between feedlot inventories/placements is related to the chronically slow marketing/fed slaughter pace of recent weeks and months. The incentives for the cattle feeder to extend days on feed and add weight is still very apparent. As a result, the marketing pace has plummeted and feedlot inventories have been supported by a growing front-end supply. Feedlot marketings as a percent of previous placements or feedlot inventories have been historically small since early spring, he says.
Because of the slow marketing pace, record small for August, the number of long-day cattle on feed September 1 was counter-seasonally larger than a month earlier, says Sands. He estimated the number to be nearly 500,000 head or 20% larger than a year earlier; which was record large for the date. The combination of a strong basis, a large front-end supply and record heavy carcass weights may weigh on the cattle feeder’s marketing flexibility and the leverage he has enjoyed in recent months. Up to this point, the cattle feeder has yet to be pressured by the building front-end supply and record heavy carcass weights. Nor has the packer been pressured by record high and rising fed cattle weights. Still, it’s doubtful whether these recent trends can be sustained, he says.