OUTSIDE forces that are beyond producers’ control are weighing on the live cattle cash and futures markets. Surging oil prices because of the war with Iran, a poor jobs report the week before last and weaker equity markets are taking futures prices lower, says analyst Kevin Greer of Kevin Greer Market Analysis and Consulting. That is apt to weaken cattle feeder resolve this coming week. In addition, it looks like cattle remain backed up and are needing to move. The Greely cattle (referring to the strike at JBS’s Greeley, Colo. beef plant) are going to get killed at other JBS plants and will be killed in a timely manner, he says. Nevertheless, the dark plant will reduce packer demand. All that is true but the fact is that there are at least 6% fewer cattle available this March compared to last. Prices should decline again this week, due to the impact of the futures crash and Greeley, says Grier.
Cash live cattle prices fell again the week before last. The 5-area prices averaged $239.94 per cwt live or $379.82 per cwt dressed. These were down $2.77 per cwt and $2.78 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. Grier and other analysts expected prices to be lower again last week. Tuesday saw a light trade in Nebraska of 7274 head that sold at mostly $372 per cwt dressed, with a few at $235 per cwt live. Kansas and Texas reported that 436 head sold at $235 per cwt live. Wednesday saw a moderate trade up north of 16,311 head at $233-236 per cwt live or $372 per cwt dressed. A light trade down south saw 2330 head sell at $235-236 per cwt live. Thursday morning saw a light trade up north at similar prices to Wednesday.,
Live cattle meanwhile graded a new record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the second week in a row in the latest reporting week ended February 28. They graded 87.89% Prime and Choice (14.49% Prime and 73.40% Choice). This broke the previous record of 87.80% set the week before and again revealed how near record high carcass weights and long-fed cattle have led to record high grading percentages.
Beef Cutouts Continue Surge
Daily and weekly boxed beef cutouts continue to surge due to a combination of factors. Fed beef processors are buying cattle cheaper but they are still keeping a tight lid on slaughter and production levels. Total slaughter the week before last was down 10.1% on the same week last year while weekly beef production was down 7.2%. They are also seeing some improved efficiencies, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. As for the shutdown of the Greeley plant, there is an effort for other operations and other locations to increase activity to offset the loss of the Greeley plant production, he says. This includes adding some hours for Saturday and some uptick in activity by other meatpackers. The factors noted above put packer margins into positive territory. Thursday morning showed a profit of $20.00 per head, a substantial improvement in two weeks, he says.
The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $381.17 per cwt, up $7.31 per cwt on the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $379.00 per cwt, up $7.38 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 25.02% of the total volume of 6463 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Formula sales accounted for 59.3%, forward sales accounted for 15.6% and export sales accounted for 14.6%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $9.87 per cwt to $397.09 per cwt while the Select cutout increased by $11.87 to $390.82 per cwt. The closing daily Choice beef cutout last Tuesday at $394.67 per cwt was the highest on record for this date, say Wilson.
CATTLE PRICES DROP FROM HIGH
CASH live cattle prices were on a steady uptrend since mid-November and hit a high of nearly $247 per cwt live the week ending February 21, says analyst Kevin Grier in his bi-weekly review of the U.S. market. But prices then slid for the second week in a row (and slid again last week). Futures were volatile, impacted by the equity and oil markets. Boxed beef cutouts jumped hard the two weeks to last week, fueled by low kills. Fear of the pending strike at Greely also helped push them higher. Packer margins were still red but improved notably on lower cattle costs and stronger cutout values, according to analyst Rob Murphy.
Beef demand was excellent in December, says Grier. The latest 12-month demand was 9% greater than the prior 12 months. The total slaughter four-week average ending March 7 versus 2025 was down 7%. The fed cattle kill four-week average ending February 21 versus 2025 was down 8%. The non-fed kill four-week average ending February 21 was down 7%. Kills are running less than is likely available. That plus the huge weights could mean that cattle are backing up, he says.
Fed cattle availability should be about 7% less than last year through March and April, says Grier. Packer spot market inventory availability for last week was very small. Packers do not have much inventory but they are more comfortable with March contracts than last year, he says.
WAR COULD CAUSE SPIKE IN FOOD PRICES
THE Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz and its impact could ripple far beyond the energy markets, risking a spike in global food prices. The strait is not only a key artery for oil and gas shipments but also for fertilizers critical to global agriculture, says a special report from CNBC. Analysts told CNBC that disruptions could feed through to higher farming costs, reduced crop yields and ultimately more expensive food. Higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels in many countries, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, also warned that fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously. The short answer is: significant and faster than people think, he said. The Strait of Hormuz is a fertilizer chokepoint. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iran together supply a substantial share of the world’s traded urea and phosphates and virtually all of it transits through Hormuz, he said.
Fertilizer prices have surged due to the conflict, says a Rabobank report. In the U.S. Gulf, spot urea prices rose $100 per short ton in the week up to March 6, touching levels last seen in October 2022. Reports indicate the urea production facilities in India and Bangladesh have suspended operations due to reduced natural gas supplies. Shipments via the Strait of Hormuz account for 25%-30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, while the broader regional impact of the conflict could render almost 45% of global supplies at risk. Reduced application rates represent a downside risk to global crop production, while recent fertilizer price moves could influence crop planting allocations in the U.S. The prospect of export controls being implemented to preserve domestic supplies cannot be ruled out, says Rabobank.
Countries dependent on food imports directly, as well as those reliant on fertilizers, could face rising costs within weeks, particularly during key planting periods, industry watchers told CNBC. Gulf countries face immediate risk. The first region likely to feel the impact includes countries closest to the conflict. Regionally, consumers in the gulf are most exposed to short-term food price spikes due to their heavy reliance on maritime imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz, said Bin Hui Ong, commodities analyst at BMI. Persian Gulf economies such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia rely heavily on food imports shipped through the strait. If shipping remains constrained, supplies would need to be rerouted through alternative corridors or transported overland at far higher cost, analysts told CNBC. More on the war’s impact on the next page.
Persian Gulf Countries Face Shortages
When it comes to short term shortages, all countries around the Persian gulf west of Hormuz will struggle to get food imports in, said another analyst. These countries will need to find alternative routes. Wealthier states such as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have the financial resources to import food by air or overland routes if necessary but poorer neighbors may struggle more. Iraq may suffer and Iran itself will also face scarcity, he said.
Beyond the Gulf region, the greatest risks may lie in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where farmers depend heavily on imported fertilizer and households spend a large share of income on food. Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region, said Patel. Data from the University of Texas at Austin shows that over 90% of the fertilizer consumed in sub-Saharan Africa is imported, mostly from outside the continent. Nitrogen-intensive crops such as maize, a key staple across the region, are especially sensitive to fertilizer shortages, raising the risk of lower harvests and rising food prices, other experts said. South and Southeast Asia could also face mounting cost pressures, said CNBC. Major agricultural economies such as India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia rely heavily on imported fertilizers from the Gulf. A sustained disruption could drive up costs for farmers during key planting seasons, it said.
Farmers in Thailand who are 90% import-dependent, buying urea that’s made from gas, shipped through Hormuz and priced in dollars that are strengthening because of geopolitical risk, face a cost shock on every dimension simultaneously, said the University of Texas’s Patel. Staples in the region, which include rice and maize, are among the most fertilizer-intensive crops. Rabobank singled out Indonesia and Bangladesh among those likely to be worst affected in the region.
Yields Could Fall And Push Prices Higher
A longer-term view is that if farmers respond to higher fertilizer prices by reducing its use, crop yields could decline and push food prices higher, said CNBC. Brazil, one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, could face rising costs if fertilizer markets tighten, said analysts. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertilizer, making its soybean and maize production highly dependent on global supply chains. A prolonged disruption during Brazil’s key fertilizer import season could ripple through global crop markets, eventually impacting food prices. Even if crop output remains relatively stable in the near term, rising energy costs alone could drive food inflation higher globally, experts told CNBC.
Energy plays a major role throughout the food supply chain, from powering farm machinery and producing fertilizers to transporting crops and processing them into food product, said CNBC. The bigger impact on consumer prices will not be the impact on agricultural commodities but the fact that energy is a big portion of the total retail food bill, said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. Chris Barrett, an agricultural economist at Cornell University, said the scale of any price shock will depend heavily on how long shipping disruptions persist.
Rabobank meanwhile noted that on March 9, Brent crude prices surged to within a whisker of $120 per barrel following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian strikes on targets across the region. Seaborne transit via the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, prompting the IEA to refer to the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The acute tensions in the crude oil market have spilled over into agricultural commodities markets, with biofuel feedstocks, energy and freight costs, and fertilizer supplies all in focus. The duration of the conflict will be a critical determinant of the longer-run effect on price levels in agricultural markets, it says.
Higher oil prices will benefit biofuel demand, says Rabobank.In tandem with crude oil markets, soybean oil prices surged on March 9, with the CBOT May 2026 soybean oil contract trading at almost 70 cents per lb during the day. Higher oil prices could have ethanol-pricing implications in Brazil, encouraging a lower sugar mix and thus tightening supplies, says Rabobank.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 100.0%, placed 105.0%, marketed 92.1%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 99.6%, placed 101.7%, marketed 92.1%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 98.8%, placed 96.3%, marketed 92.2%; Caleb Hurst, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 99.8%, placed 104.1%, marketed 92.5%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 99.5%, placed 101.8%, marketed 92.6%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 99.4%, placed 101%, marketed 93%
COF TOTAL REMAINS LOW
CATTLE feeders placed slightly more cattle in February than a year ago. But they marketed far fewer cattle that last year. So the March 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) at around 11.5M head was the lowest total for the date since 2017. The average of CBW’s analysts was down 0.5% from March 1 last year, with a range of 98.8% to 100%. The low forecast would suggest a decline of 420,000 head from the five-year average, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Analysts’ average forecast for February placements was 1.7% above a year ago, with a range from 105.0% to 96.3%, while their forecast for February placements was down 7.6% from last year.
Front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on March 1 are estimated to be a record high level at 3.294M head, says Wilson. This is 508,000 head or 18.2% above the previous year and 25.8% above the previous five-year average, a total of 686,000 higher than the average. For the most recent reporting week, steer and heifer carcass weights hovered near all-time record high levels. This continues to confirm a front-end loaded fed cattle supply. Seasonally, carcass weights tend to bottom during the second half of June. The average of days on feed for cattle is nearing 200 days, he says. For reference, data for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter this year (projected), equals 180 days. Combined placements for those quarters were down 745,000 head and were a record low for a fourth plus first quarter combination. Marketings for the same period were down 652,000 head. This was the second lowest level on record, only 35,000 head above 2015, he says.
Estimated feeder cattle supplies outside feedyards began the year slightly larger than a year earlier because placements last year declined by nearly 1.5M head, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. But availability remains historically small in the wake of shrinking calf crops, restricted imports and a modest rise in heifer retention. But a few more cattle on wheat and small grains pasture at the beginning of the year may have augmented February placements slightly, although the key is that comparisons are being made against a record small number last year, he says. Record high prices on feedyard replacements, accompanied by escalating breakevens despite lower feed costs, continued to dampen cattle feeder interest. Stiff competition for limited feeder cattle supplies amid excess feeding capacity, backgrounding programs and modest herd rebuilding efforts, likely will keep a lid on placements in the months ahead, he says.
The February marketing pace was historically slow, says Sands. Feedlot sales as a percentage of the January 1 COF total slipped near 13%, which was record low and well off the pace of recent years of around 14-15%. Still, fewer fed cattle imports from Canada during February suggest that movement out of feedyards was slightly larger than fed slaughter rates suggest. But the slow marketing pace maintains the elevated inventory of cattle on feed over 150 days and remains a significant contributor to record heavy carcass weights and favorable grading percentages. The March 1 COF total was estimated near 99% of a year earlier and was slightly larger than a month earlier, while the year-over-year decline is much smaller than earlier in the year, he says.
Feedlot inventories remain much larger than might be anticipated considering the continued slide in placements, says Sands. They declined nearly 950,000 head during the last half of 2025. But the feedlot inventory is less than 75,000 head smaller than last year. Incentives remain in place to sustain the slow inventory turnover, although the strong basis and weaker cash undertone may have altered cattle feeder attitudes in recent weeks.