U.S. pork and beef exports, as expected, took a big hit in May because of large Chinese tariffs on the two meats. Overall beef exports in May were the lowest for the month in nearly five years. In April and the first half of May, China’s total tariff rate on U.S. pork peaked at 172%, while the rate for U.S. beef was 147%. Even following a May 14 joint announcement temporarily easing tariffs for 90 days, China’s rates still stand at 57% for U.S. pork and 32% for U.S. beef. In addition, most U.S. beef production is ineligible due to China’s failure since February to renew expiring beef plant and cold storage facility registrations, says the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). In contrast, May exports of U.S. lamb cuts increased year-over-year, driven mainly by growing demand in Mexico.
The situation with China obviously had a severe impact on May exports, underscoring the importance of diversification and further development of alternative markets, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. The need for progress in the U.S.-China trade negotiations is extremely urgent because tariffs could soar again on August 12. This deadline is already impacting exporters’ decisions about whether to continue producing for the Chinese market. On the bright side, amid all this uncertainty, demand for U.S. red meat remains robust in many key regions, says Halstrom.
Beef exports totaled 97,266 metric tons (mt) in May, down 12% from a year earlier, says USMEF. Export value was $798.7M, down 11.5% and the lowest in 18 months. January-May beef exports were down 5% from last year’s pace at 508,293 mt, while value declined 3% to $4.15 billion. May pork exports totaled 224,162 mt, down 11% from a year ago, while value fell 10% to $646.5M. These were the lowest monthly totals since September 2023. Through the first five months of the year, pork exports were down 6% in volume (1.22M mt) and down 5% in value ($3.43 billion) compared to the record pace of 2024.
Pork to Mexico Faces Tariff Threat
Pork exports to leading market Mexico performed well in May, climbing 7% from a year ago to 97,697 mt, says USMEF. Export value was also up 7% to $216M, the highest since January. These results pushed January-May exports to Mexico to 483,541 mt, up 1% from last year’s record pace, while export value increased 3% to $1.05 billion. Demand for U.S. pork continues to thrive in Mexico, even as competition in the market heightens. While Mexico has not imposed any retaliatory measures against U.S. products, the potential for retaliation is looming as a 21% antidumping duty on tomatoes imported from Mexico is set to take effect July 14. Mexico has not published a retaliation list but President Claudia Sheinbaum has identified U.S. pork as a possible target, says USMEF.
Outstanding growth in Honduras, Guatemala and Costa Rica pushed May pork exports to Central America to 14,764 mt, up 26% from a year ago, while value also soared 26% to $47.7M, says USMEF. Shipments to the region are poised to shatter last year’s record, with January-May exports up 18% in volume (75,575 mt) and up 21% in value ($238.8M). Pork exports to Colombia continued to gain momentum in May, climbing 31% to 12,627 mt. This was the fifth largest monthly export volume to Colombia and the third consecutive month exports have exceeded 12,000 mt. May export value increased 32% to just over $35M. January-May shipments to Colombia are also on pace to top last year’s record, climbing 18% in volume (57,970 mt) and 23% in value ($165.8M). CBW reports on beef exports in its next story.
U.S. BEEF HAD GREAT MAY IN KOREA
U.S. beef posted an excellent May performance in leading market South Korea, says the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Exports climbed 40% from a year ago to 25,228 metric tons (mt), the largest since March 2023. Export value reached $233M, up 39% and the highest since June 2022. These results pushed January-May exports to 106,867 mt, up 10% from the same period last year, with value up 12% to $1.02 billion. Reinforcing and expanding demand in Korea is especially critical in light of the obstacles in China, particularly for cuts that command a premium in the Asian markets, says USMEF.
While May beef shipments to Central America increased modestly in volume (2045 mt, up 4% year-over-year), value soared an impressive 36% to $18.5M, says USMEF. Through May, exports to the region are on a record pace at 10,716 mt, up 8% from a year ago, while value climbed 31% to $81.2M, driven by record shipments to top market Guatemala and strong growth in Costa Rica and Panama. While a surge in tourism, especially in El Salvador and Guatemala, is bolstering Central America’s demand for U.S. beef, local consumers are also seeking higher quality beef cuts at both foodservice and retail, says USMEF.
South America followed a similar trend as growth in Chile and Peru pushed May beef exports to 1446 mt, up 3% from a year ago, says USMEF. Value climbed 21% to $32.3M. For January through May, beef exports to South America jumped 29% in value to $56.4M, despite a 2% decline in volume (7770 mt). Shipments to Colombia are gradually rebounding from last year’s interruption due to restrictions related to highly pathogenic avian influenza in dairy cows. But the recovery is still a work in progress as Canada remains Colombia’s largest beef supplier, a milestone attained while U.S. access was restricted. For January through May, U.S. exports to Colombia were down 30% in volume (1501 mt) but value increased 4% to $13.5M, says USMEF.
Exports To China Were A Trickle
Due to both high tariffs and lack of eligible plants, May beef exports to China plunged to just 1398 mt, down 91% from a year ago, says USMEF. Export value was $14.6M, down 90%. Despite a relatively strong first quarter, January-May exports to China fell 31% to 51,418 mt, valued at $449.3M (down 32%). U.S. beef is currently subject to a 32% tariff in China but expired plant registrations are an even more daunting obstacle, effectively closing the market. Even the few exporters still eligible to ship to China face tremendous uncertainty, with the possibility of rising retaliatory duties looming in August, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Japan saw mixed results in May, with volume up 4% to 21,791 mt, while value fell 5% to $156M, says USMEF. Through the first five months, exports were slightly below last year’s pace at 104,012 mt (down 1%), while value was down 3% to $773M. While Japan has not imposed any countermeasures on U.S. exports, it has been one of the trading partners most impacted by U.S. tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum. Japan’s tariff rate on U.S. chilled and frozen beef remains high at 21.6% but the rate is the same for other major suppliers. Japan’s total beef imports have declined this year, reflecting the still relatively weak yen and challenging economic situation, says USMEF.
After a very strong performance in 2024, beef exports to Mexico have trended modestly lower this year, says USMEF. This trend continued in May, as shipments totaled 16,485 mt, down 12% from a year ago, while export value fell 10% to just over $100M. For January through May, exports to Mexico declined 8% in volume (89,022 mt) and 4% in value ($540.2M).
May beef export value equated to $406.05 per head of fed slaughter, down just 1% from a year ago. Exports to China accounted for just $7.40 per head, compared to more than $66 per head in May 2024. The January-May average was $413.37 per head, up 1%. Exports accounted for 13.4% of total May beef production and 11.3% for muscle cuts, down slightly from the year ago ratios of 13.8% and 11.4%, respectively. For January through May, exports accounted for 13.6% of total production and 11.4% for muscle cuts, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, during the same period last year.
New Tariffs Might Hurt Exports
Beef and pork exports to Japan and South Korea might be under further threat if the two countries retaliate against proposed new U.S. tariffs. President Trump posted letters on social media last week indicating the U.S. would put a 25% tariff on all goods imported from South Korea and Japan starting on August 1. The rates are similar to what Trump put in place on countries with the original “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April before he decided on a 90-day pause a week later. Beef exports to South Korea last year totaled $2.2 billion, while beef exports to Japan were $1.87 billion. Pork exports to Japan in 2024 totaled $1.38 billion. Pork exports to South Korea totaled $727.9M, making it the fourth-largest destination for U.S. pork.
In the letters, Trump threatened the U.S. would retaliate if either country raised tariffs on U.S. goods by imposing tariffs of the same amount on top of the 25%. There would be additional tariffs if the countries are found to be engaging in transshipments to circumvent the tariffs, he wrote. There will be no tariff if Japan or companies within the country decide to build or manufacture product within the U.S., he wrote. In fact, we will do everything possible to get approvals quickly, professionally and routinely, in other words in a matter of weeks, Trump wrote in his letter.
AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS SOAR
AUSTRALIAN beef exports continue to break new records. June monthly shipments were an all-time high, reaching 134,593 metric tons (mt), while export volumes in the July to June fiscal year set a new record. In addition, grain-fed beef exports in June surged past the previous record set in April and were a record for the fiscal year, The results reflect the huge swings occurring in global beef trade this year, driven by declining U.S. beef production, trade access issues for U.S. beef entering the China market, tariff impacts and persistently strong underlying international demand for beef, says Jon Condon of Beef Central.
Australia is in the box-seat to capitalize on the current market dynamics, with current high levels of production, albeit blighted by the impact of drought in parts of Victoria and South Australia, says Condon. Last month’s record tonnage was 4% higher than May (already high at 129,000 mt) and 27% higher than June last year. For the calendar year first half ended Monday, volume reached 702,217t, easily the largest on record and 17pc higher than the equivalent half year in 2024. The July 2024 to June 2025 financial year saw total beef shipments to all destinations of 1.44M mt, some 90,000 mt higher than the previous record set in the 2014-15 drought turnoff year, when volume reached 1.35 mt. The 1.44M mt number is all the more noteworthy because of the flooding and cyclone-related delays in production and logistics that occurred earlier this year. At current rates of production (the week ended Friday set a 2025 season high slaughter total of 159,000 head, according to NLRS reporting), it is looking extremely likely that the 2025 calendar year will set another record, somewhere above 1.4M head. The previous record from 2015 was a distant 1.23M head, he says.
Grain-fed beef exports also hit a new monthly record in June, as well as a new fiscal year record, says Condon. June volume hit a record number of almost 40,000 mt, up from the previous record set in April of 37,000 mt. The fiscal year grain-fed volume was also record high at almost 404,000 mt, smashing the previous records set a year earlier (344,000 mt). All of the top ten individual monthly records for grain-fed exports have happened in the past year. This reflects the substantial growth seen in Australian grain-feeding operations over the past two years, as well as a decline now being seen in U.S. grain-fed production either for U.S. domestic consumption or export, says Condon.
Australian beef exports to the U.S. in June reached 35,350 mt, up 23% on June last year but 8% behind May exports, as U.S. importers stocked up for mid-summer grilling season, says Condon. Neither came close to the all-time monthly record of 47,000 mt set in October last year but were nevertheless very high. For the full fiscal year ended June 30, exports to the U.S. reached just over 203,000 mt, up 31% on the previous 12-month cycle. This again reflected low U.S. production, especially for manufacturing beef, but increasingly beef from fed cattle as well, says Condon.
DAILY CUTOUTS TAKE A TUMBLE
DAILY boxed beef cutout values take a tumble as beef production returns to normal levels after the holiday-shortened week. As CBW has previously reported, July beef demand typically weakens from June because of the onset of the so-called dog days of summer. Americans tend to grill less because of hotter weather and instead eat more chicken and cold cuts. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $5.09 per cwt to $384.66 per cwt and the Select cutout declined by $7.58 per cwt to $370.86 per cwt.
The national boxed beef comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $388.64 per cwt, up $3.30 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $386.35 per cwt, up $3.46 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $375.36, up $3.58 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 57.9% of the total volume of 5571 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 26.2%, forward sales accounted for 15.9% and export sales accounted for 10.3%. The cutout was expected to go lower last week. Also of note the week before last was that the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) averaged a new record high of $408.95 per cwt. This beat the previous record of $401.45 per cwt set the week before.
The cash live cattle trade was slow to develop last week, with the only trade of note through Wednesday being the sale of 1136 head in Kansas Tuesday at $225 per cwt live. A light trade occurred Thursday morning in the Corn Belt, with prices at $232-235 per cwt live. Prices there thus maintained their large premium to prices down south. The 5-area regional trade the week before last saw steer prices average $229.43 per cwt live or $369.30 per cwt dressed. These were down $0.08 per cwt and $0.22 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week.
Carcass weights in the latest reported week ended June 28 all declined from the prior week. But all weights remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 933 lbs, down 4 lbs from the week before but up 22 lbs from the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 854 lbs, down 3 lbs on the week before but up 24 lbs from last year. Overall weights averaged 865 lbs, down 4 lbs from the week before but up 24 lbs from last year. Also of note is that cattle continue to grade a high percentage of Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage in the latest reported week ended June 28 was 84.47%. In contrast, cattle are grading below 13% Select.
USA Closes Mexican Border Again
USDA closes the border again to imports of Mexican cattle, bison and equine after cases of New World screwworm (NWS) were found within 370 miles of the border. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins made the decision last Wednesday to close all U.S. ports again to livestock According to USDA, the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health Safety and Quality (SENASICA) in Mexico reported a new NWS case in Veracruz, Mexico. USDA had previously planned a reopening schedule for the ports to livestock between July 7 and September 15.
The United States has promised to be vigilant, and after detecting this new NWS case, USDA is pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico, said Rollins. USDA must see additional progress combatting NWS in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border. Thanks to the aggressive monitoring by USDA staff in the U.S. and in Mexico, USDA has been able to take quick and decisive action to respond to the spread of this deadly pest, she said. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn (NCBA) backed the decision by Rollins. She successfully removed bureaucratic barriers to the screwworm sterile fly flights and increased surveillance in Mexico, said CEO Colin Woodall. Unfortunately, screwworm continues to move north through Mexico, and it is clear that the U.S. needs a sterile fly facility of its own here at home. NCBA cannot wait any longer and it urges USDA to immediately begin work on a sterile fly facility, he said.