U.S. cattle and beef markets continue to make new record highs. The week before last saw a new high for fed cattle prices on a live basis for the ninth week in a row. The 5-area steer price averaged $238.91 per cwt, up $2.29 per cwt from the prior week’s record. This was up 24.0% from the same week last year and was up $31.21 per cwt in the nine weeks. Dressed prices averaged $380.06 per cwt, down $0.28 per cwt from the record $380.34 per cwt of the prior week. But the price was up 24.4% from the same week last year. The only trade of note through Wednesday last week was up north, with a light trade Tuesday and an active trade Wednesday. Prices that day were $235-240 per cwt live or $375-380 per cwt dressed. The only sales down south were in Kansas at $229-231 per cwt live.
The other new record set the week before last was for domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL). Its price averaged $389.12 per cwt, up from the previous week’s record of $384.62 per cwt. Boxed beef cutout values meanwhile continue to soar although they remain well below the record values set during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when weekly beef production plummeted. The comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $367.51 per cwt, up $6.63 per cwt on the prior week. The all-time record is $421.80 per cwt set the week ended May 15 2020.
Formula Sales Top 60%
Formula-priced sales the week before last accounted for 60.7% of the total volume of 6223 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 25.5%, forward sales accounted for 13.8% and export sales accounted for 10.7%. Daily cutout values increased significantly last week. The Choice cutout increased by $15.91 per cwt the first four days to $393.79 per cwt while the Select cutout increased by $11.09 per cwt to $374.59 per cwt.
The June live cattle futures market undertone remains solid, says analyst Kevin Grier in his bi-weekly summary of the U.S. markets. The fed cattle basis is wide but is unlikely to play a role in marketing decisions. Calf prices have stabilized while yearling prices remain on an uptrend. The beef cutout continues to soar and remains on a seasonal uptrend. Packer margins are deep red. April consumer demand was much stronger than a year ago and much stronger than average. The total slaughter four-week average ending June 14 was down 7% on last year. The fed cattle kill four-week average ending May 31 (latest) was also down 7% on last year. The non-fed kill four-week average ending May 31 (latest) was down 8%. July fed cattle availability is likely to be steady to lower compared to last year. Packer negotiated cash and dressed inventories have picked up compared to recent weeks but they remain tight by historic standards, says Grier.
KILCOY FILES IPO: Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF), an Australian meat company, files an initial public offering (IPO) as it looks to gain more access to the U.S. market and expand its business in North America and Asia. In its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, KGF said the IPO would help the company with “potential strategic investments and acquisitions, expanding our production capacities and capabilities, and accelerating our digital transformation and automation.” In its overview, KGF said its operations are mainly in Australia but it also owns facilities in the U.S. and China and exports to more than 40 countries. KGF recorded $2.19 billion in revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, which was a 17.3% increase from the previous year. Net income during the time period was $60.4M.
MEXICAN BAN COULD BOOST PRICES
A NEW ban on the importation of Mexican cattle due to New World screwworm could boost live cattle prices in the summer when they normally decline. The new ban began May 11 after reports that the disease was spreading north from southern Mexico. Well over 1M Mexican feeder cattle entered the U.S in 2024, with most going to Southern Plains feedlots. Analyst David Anderson of Texas A&M University says he last year used 26,000 head per week on average, not counting the weeks during the ban late in the year. Counting days forward from the ban beginning in late November, the market is just getting to the time when those lost animals would have shown up in slaughter numbers, he says.
Going forward, reduced slaughter is going to start reflecting the animals that did not come from Mexico to U.S. feedlots, says Anderson. That’s a pretty substantial hit on slaughter and production in the coming months. While live cattle prices usually decline somewhat in summer as production increases a little and the market sees full summer consumer dining choices, the market is also going to get even more reduced supplies due to the lack of Mexican cattle. That gives more support to prices to stay high, he says.
Smaller calf crops and fewer feeder cattle imports from both Mexico and Canada continued to pare feedlot placements during May, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. Although modest declines in wheat pasture graze-outs tempered the decline in feeder cattle supplies during the month, border and tariff issues continue to disrupt imports. Feeder cattle shipments from Canada surged in late winter but have since declined to a mere trickle. The re-closure of the Mexican border in early May further tightened availability. Through May, feeder cattle imports from Mexico plunged nearly 425,000 head below a year earlier and that was on top of the smaller imports late last year, he says.
In addition to that decline, there are continuing indications that a few more heifers are being retained as herd replacements and feeder cattle supplies are much tighter than last year’s calf crop would suggest, says Sands. It is likely that last year’s calf crop was significantly over-estimated considering the much smaller cow herd. The progressively tighter feeder cattle supply and rapidly escalating feeder prices, along with generally favorable late spring pasture conditions, will continue to limit feeder cattle availability and in turn support prices. Limited feedlot placements through the summer likely will pare late summer and fall feedlot inventories well below a year earlier, he says.
Feedlot marketings and fed cattle slaughter during May plunged far below expectations based on earlier feedlot placements and the May 1 feedlot inventory, says Sands. Weekly average fed cattle slaughter during May was record small and declined counter-seasonally from April. Favorable grading percentages and record heavy carcass weights suggest that front-end supplies are growing. The estimated number of cattle on feed over 150 days on May 1 was about 4% above a year earlier and record large. The slow marketing pace during May pushed that front-end supply on June 1 nearly 9% above last year and remains record large for the date, he says.
However, from a cattle feeder’s perspective there is little sense of urgency regarding marketings, says Sands. Sales prices far exceed the cost of gain, replacement costs and projected breakevens are significantly higher than deferred futures prices, and the fed cattle market has been steady or higher every week since early spring. The strong basis, however, does provide a note of caution regarding continued marketing delays. The June 1 feedlot inventory at 99% of last year does not signal significantly tighter fed cattle supplies into the fall months. Rather, the inventory was nearly 135,000 head larger than a month earlier, a counter-seasonal increase and the largest May-to-June rise on record. Long day feedlot inventories also remain record large, he says.
JBS STARTS TRADING: JBS S.A. officially started trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 13, completing the dual listing of the multinational meat business. Its shares are now listed on both the NYSE and Brazil’s B3 stock exchange in São Paulo. Joining the NYSE is a source of great pride for all at JBS, says global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni. It recognizes JBS’s successful track record, built on resilience, determination and a commitment to the future, as well as its entrepreneurial journey, he says.
CAB ENJOYS RECORD SPRING SALES
CERTIFIED Angus Beef (CAB), the largest and most recognizable beef brand in the world, enjoyed record spring sales. Amid a difficult landscape for beef businesses, CAB said sales and supply records have been the bright spot and that Prime carcasses are dominating. The positive numbers mean that quality beef production has not let up and beef demand is holding. Spring typically yields higher improved carcass quality, which in turn leads to the highest CAB acceptance rates during those months. This year followed that trend, with March and April yielding historically high certified carcass numbers, said CAB.
Based solely on head count, the end of March produced the second largest week of certified carcasses at 134,330 head, said CAB. This was second to a week in February 2021 at 135,758 head, with the 2021 number largely due to a pandemic-driven backlog in processing. Overall, brand-certified carcasses are up 1% year-over-year despite fed steer and heifer harvest being down by 3.5%, it said.
Prime carcasses are dominating, said CAB. With genetics geared towards performance and profit and increased days on feed, as well as heavier carcass weights, more Choice and Prime carcasses have been produced as of late. CAB Prime carcass numbers are up 8% fiscal year-to-date, reflecting the industry trend of increased Prime production. Overall, Prime percentages have remained higher than Select for nine weeks, another historic data point for the beef industry. On a carcass basis, total Prime carcasses are up 6.2% from 2024, said CAB.
If the industry makes a better product, more consumers trust the product, said CAB president John Stika. They buy more and demand goes up, part of why quality will continue to resonate in the industry. According to the 2025 Power of Meat study, the top two meat purchasing decision factors were price per pound and quality. What the industry has learned from consumers is that when they try to determine the value proposition, what ultimately opposes price in their decision-making is quality. Ninety-five percent of consumers say quality is important when they are deciding on a beef purchase, said Stika.
As grilling season is in full swing, an uptick in backyard barbecues is to be expected, equating to a bump in beef sales, said CAB. Its record-setting spring boasted 116.8M lbs sold in March, outpacing March 2022’s record of 113.8M lbs. CAB’s April sales marked an all-time high for the month, with April 2025 currently ranking as an overall Top 10 month for brand sales. May was also on track for another strong sales month, said CAB.
EXPORTS TO CHINA STILL FACE ISSUES
THE U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) confirms that China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has approved several additional pork and poultry plants for export access. But in the grand scheme, other larger issues still need to be dealt with before the 90-day cooling period between the U.S. and China ends, says USMEF. GACC specifically added 18 pork establishments, 78 poultry establishments and five pork and poultry establishments to its CIFER registration list. Pending posting to the FSIS Export Library, the added establishments were set to become eligible to ship to China on June 12, says USMEF.
While this is positive news for the U.S. meat industry, USMEF says that overall, the situation remains largely unchanged. U.S. pork and most pork variety meat still face a 57% tariff in China, while beef is tariffed at 32%. GACC has not renewed the expired U.S. beef facilities in its CIFER system, so the majority of U.S. beef is ineligible to ship to China, which has been the case since mid-March. In March, more than 300 pork harvesting and cold storage facilities received registration renewals from GACC. Even so, U.S. beef plants’ access to China for export expired without any signs of renewal in the near future. At the time, USMEF estimated that the beef industry could experience a $4.13 billion full-year impact if access to China was lost. While these new plant registrations are welcome news, there are larger issues impacting trade with China that need to be addressed before the 90-day window for negotiations expires in mid-August, says USMEF. Exporters are concerned about the risk of tariffs escalating again if this deadline is not met. This uncertainty will further impact exports over the coming weeks, says USMEF.
MEAT INSTITUTE URGES TRUMP TO ACT
THE Meat Institute, which represents the nation’s meat and poultry processors, urges the Trump administration to include the meat processing sector in its plans for the agricultural workforce around the U. S. President Trump has an opportunity to solve the agriculture labor crisis that has challenged farmers and ranchers for decades, says Julie Anna Potts, president and CEO for the Meat Institute. As reforms are considered, the institute urges the administration to include meat and poultry packers and processors in his efforts to improve agriculture worker programs, she says.
The Meat Institute says more than 850,000 hog farmers, cattle ranchers and poultry growers rely on meat packers and processors to feed families around the nation. Meat and poultry processors, thousands of small to large companies, keep the rural economy moving by producing the beef, pork and poultry purchased by 98% of American households, says Potts. These companies offer excellent pay, with entry-level wages ranging from $16.00 to $24.00 an hour plus benefits. The institute’s members, together with their suppliers and others in the meat and poultry supply chain, need changes to the H-2A visa program and modernization of E-Verify to ensure the processing sector has access to a consistent, year-round legal workforce, she says.
CARGILL WILL INTRODUCE NEW YIELD TECH
CARGILL, the nation’s third largest beef processor, plans to spend nearly $90M for automation and new technologies at its Fort Morgan, Colo., beef facility as part of its ongoing Factory of the Future initiative. One automated solution going forward is CarVe, Cargill’s proprietary, patent-pending computer vision technology. The program will enable real-time measurement of red meat yield, giving frontline managers the ability to share feedback with employees to improve cutting techniques, says Cargill.
Before CarVe, yield data was always yesterday’s news, says Jarrod Gillig, senior vice president of Cargill’s North American Beef business. Now, Cargill is making decisions in the moment and saving product that would have been lost. By applying smart technology to the problem, Cargill is getting more meat from every animal, reducing waste and making protein production more efficient and sustainable from start to finish, he says. Cargill expects the CarVe technology to put more protein into the food system. Even a 1% yield improvement can save hundreds of millions of pounds of meat, it says. With the U.S. cattle supply at its lowest level in years, improving yield matters more than ever.
MARFRIG-BRF MERGER WINS APPROVAL
BRAZIL’S national competition regulator approves the proposed merger between major meat giants Marfrig Global Foods and BRF. The Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) on June 3 declared no risks to the proposed transaction. This decision marks a major milestone in the creation of MBRF, the companies said in a joint statement. It is a company that is set to become one of the world’s largest food sector players, with net revenue of 152 billion reais over the past 12 months, and with 38% of its portfolio made up of high value-added processed products, including iconic brands like Sadia, Perdigão, Qualy and Bassi. The companies first unveiled plans for a merger in May, noting that if approved, the new business would be named MBRF Global Foods Co. S.A.
HARVEST BANKRUPTCY: Harvest Sherwood Food Distributors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 5 following a shutdown of operations on April 21, mass layoffs and a major dispute with a key customer, Sprouts Farmers Market. The Michigan-based food distributor, which had revenue of about $4 billion in 2024, reported liabilities between $323.5M and $558.5M. The largest creditors in the joint filing include Burgord Capital ($35M), National Beef Packing ($15.5M) and Tyson Foods ($13M).