IT is just under six weeks until the Christmas-New Year holiday and the markets are hoping that despite record high retail beef prices, holiday ordering will give cash live cattle and boxed beef prices a boost. Live cattle prices slumped the week before last and might struggle to return to their levels of mid-October. The national comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) went higher the week before last. But higher prices going forward might depend on packers reducing their production levels to force wholesale beef prices higher.
The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $376.26 per cwt, up $5.40 per cwt from the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $371.89, up $3.78 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $356.08, up $4.63 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 60.0% of the total volume of 6327 loads. This was the largest percentage of sales since the week ended August 22, when formula sales accounted for 60.1%. Spot market sales accounted for 27.8%, forward sales accounted for 12.3% and export sales accounted for 10.9%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $0.16 per cwt to $377.97 per cwt while the Select cutout increased by $2.11 per cwt to $360.76.
Cutout Values Are Caught
The harvest pattern of higher early week kill levels was expected to give way to reduced harvest levels last Friday and Saturday, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. Beef cutout values are caught mid-way between price support and resistance levels. But any short-term decline that might develop should prove to be temporary, given the expected seasonal trend for beef cutout values to advance. Middle meat purchases for the holiday season are expected to begin in earnest in the near future. Some of this action was seen to be initiated as early as the week before last, he says.
Retail beef prices put in new record highs in Augst, according to USDA data. The Choice beef price averaged $9.85 per lb, up from $9.69 per lb in July and up 15.6% from the $8.52 per lb price of a year ago. The All Fresh beef price averaged $9.18 per lb, up from $8.90 per lb in July and up 12.5% from the $8.16 per lb price of a year ago. Conversely, the average pork price of $5.01 per lb was the same as in July and was up only 0.4% from a year ago. The average chicken price of $2.08 per lb was also the same as in July, although it was up 4.5% from the same week last year.
The beef price levels versus the price levels of the competing meats may encourage some consumers to switch some of their beef purchases to the competing meats, says Gottschalk. Early reports from weekend retail activity the week before last would confirm these actions. Consumer concerns over inflation, employment and the economy, as well as weakness seen in short-term outlooks, are increasing. Thus, the more nervous attitudes of consumers are developing, even as the holiday period approaches, he says.
Cash live cattle prices the week before last averaged $230.86 per cwt live or $358.54 per cwt dressed. These were down $7.03 per cwt and $10.78 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. Prices went lower last week after the December live cattle contract lost 1167 points on Tuesday and Wednesday to settle at $220.52 per cwt live. Trade was active Wednesday in the Corn Belt, with prices at $225-230 per cwt live or $355-365 per cwt dressed. Trade was light to moderate in Texas at $232 per cwt live. A light trade continued on Thursday.
BEEF EXPORTS TO CHINA HINGE ON PLANT RENEWALS
THE trade framework reached the week before last between the US and China includes a step forward for U.S. meat exports by suspending all retaliatory tariffs on beef and pork. But the framework makes little mention of when China will renew its registration of U.S. facilities that previously shipped beef to China. The retaliatory tariffs were imposed on March 4, while virtually no US beef went to China from mid-April on. The trade framework is thus meaningless to the US beef industry until China re-registers all US plants.
Part of the trade agreement includes progress on agricultural trade barriers imposed by China and suspension of port service fees that raise costs for US exporters. As noted, China will suspend all its retaliatory tariffs that have been implemented since March 4. These include tariffs on several US agricultural products, such as chicken, pork, beef, wheat, corn, dairy products and others. The framework also dictates a removal of all China’s retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since March 4.
Corn and soybean producers welcomed the news of increased market access in Asia, as frameworks were also laid out with Thailand and Vietnam and reciprocal trade agreements were reached with Malaysia and Cambodia. The American Soybean Assn appreciates President Trump’s recognition of the promise markets in Southeast Asia hold for US soybean exports and it applauds the work of the administration to increase market access in that region, said Caleb Ragland, ASA president and a Kentucky soybean farmer.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) likewise provided a statement on the trade developments, specifically the framework with China. USMEF is encouraged by the progress being made in trade negotiations with China, and it appreciates the Trump administration’s emphasis on restoring market access for U.S. agricultural exports, said Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. If China follows through on its commitment to suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, and to suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken since that date, this puts US pork in a much more competitive position in the Chinese market. If the removal of non-tariff barriers means that China will promptly renew the US beef plant and cold storage registrations it allowed to expire over the past nine months, this will restore access to a critical beef export market, he said.
As far back as February, hundreds of US beef plants have been ineligible to ship to China, waiting for registration renewals that have yet to have happened, said Halstrom. China’s recent delisting of some US beef plants for technical violations is also a retaliatory measure that must be addressed. USMEF is anxious to see further details on these issues. USMEF also appreciates the one-year pause in port service fees and China’s countermeasures imposed on US vessels. While USMEF is supportive of the Trump administration’s efforts to revitalize America’s maritime industry, it encourages an approach that stimulates investment and avoids increasing costs for US exporters and cargo owners, he said.
Meat Institute Calls For USMCA Renewal
Meanwhile, the Meat Institute calls on the Trump administration to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for its benefits to American meat and poultry companies and the entire U.S. animal protein value chain. USMCA has been a boon for the American meat, livestock and poultry sector, along with the broader American food and agriculture economy and ancillary industries, said Institute president and CEO Julie Anna Potts. It has provided steady income to American farmers, ranchers, and meat and poultry exporters. It has created jobs for American truck drivers, ports, and transportation companies. It has strengthened American food retail and food service establishments, and it has accomplished all of this through transparent rules that allow American businesses to proactively plan supply chains and develop durable customer relationships, she said.
USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to create more balanced, reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs for Americans and grow the North American economy, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
Viability Depends On Robust Trade
The domestic US meat and poultry industry’s long-term economic viability, though, depends on robust international trade, particularly as domestic per capita consumption of meat and poultry remains stable and 95% of consumers live outside the US, the Meat Institute wrote in comments to the USTR on November 3. International trade is, therefore, vital to the long-term strength of the US meat and poultry industry, the American workers it supports and the rural and farm communities it sustains, said the Institute.
US meat and poultry exports in 2024 exceeded $24.6 billion, said the Institute. Meat and poultry exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for $7.5 billion of that total. Annually, approximately 14% of US beef production, 15% of US poultry production and 25% of US pork production are exported. Exports also add value to every animal produced and in turn increase demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, said the Institute. It is clear that USMCA’s access terms of zero tariffs on most meat, poultry and livestock trade have underpinned American economic and job growth, particularly in rural and farm communities across the US. No other trade agreement can boast the same success and President Trump deserves enormous credit for this extraordinary achievement, said Potts.
The Trump Administration’s America First Trade Policy Agenda has reinvigorated American trade policy and has reasserted American leadership to advance US. meat, poultry, food, and agriculture trade in a manner that revitalizes farm communities and supports broad-based economic growth, said Potts. President Trump’s negotiation of the USMCA during his first term resulted in the world’s gold-standard trade agreement. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, USMCA has bolstered U.S. meat, poultry, and livestock trade and has led to increased market integration in North America. It must be preserved without significant changes that would disrupt the U.S. meat and poultry industry’s substantial access to the Canadian and Mexican markets, said Potts.
US IS NOT READY TO REOPEN BORDER
THE US is not yet ready to reopen its border to Mexican cattle amid an outbreak of the flesh-eating New World screwworm parasite but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is pleased with Mexico’s efforts to contain the pest. Rollins, in Mexico City for meetings with officials including President Claudia Sheinbaum, told Reuters in an exclusive interview last Monday that President Donald Trump was very focused on reopening the border, which has been largely closed to Mexican livestock since May.
“We’re still not at the point where I am comfortable opening the ports (border crossings) but every day that goes by we get a little bit closer,” said Rollins. “I want to have every confidence that we have overturned every stone, that we understand every nuance, that we are deploying every tool in the toolkit.” Rollins, who declined to give a time frame for reopening the border, spoke to top U.S. officials about the issue last Wednesday and would have more conversations about screwworm with Trump. “I believe sincerely, it is the most collaborative effort, perhaps in our lifetime, between the two different departments of agriculture,” she said.
Rollins said there had been 11 cases of screwworm in Mexican states that border the U.S. in recent months, although they were all contained and treated. Screwworms are parasitic flies whose females lay eggs in wounds. Their larvae burrow through living flesh, eventually killing their host if left untreated. “The key is keeping the screwworm away from the southern border of America, and it’s gotten really close, too close, so now we have to make sure we can push it back,” she added.
In Mexico’s southern state of Chiapas, which borders Guatemala, some ranchers have blamed the spread of the outbreak on the federal government’s failure to crack down on organized crime groups that traffic in stolen livestock, which enables them to tap a lucrative market and extort money along the way. Animals may be smuggled in from Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua or other Central American nations, often bearing counterfeit ear tags and forged documents. Rollins said the illegal movement of cattle was a big issue that she wanted to dig into more.
INSTITUTE OUTLINES MARKET REALITY POINTS
THE Meat Institute, which represents US meat processors outlines a nine-page document in response to President Trump’s comments about importing more beef from Argentina. A lot has been discussed on social media and at the coffee shop about increasing beef imports from Argentina, beef retail prices, the cattle market and beef processing concentration. But it is complicated, the Institute said on LinkedIn regarding the current state of the beef industry and the dialog about beef prices. In response, it released a nine-page document called The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets which addresses import trends, market conditions, industry concentration, ground beef production, policy proposals and international trade challenges.
The report says that increasing beef imports from Argentina is unlikely to significantly lower ground beef prices in the US. If Argentina fills a proposed 80,000 metric ton (mt) quota, it will only increase its share of US beef imports from 2% to 5%, which is unlikely to significantly impact retail or restaurant beef prices. Argentina primarily exports grass-fed frozen lean trim for ground beef production, with limited impact on overall US beef imports. In 2024, Argentina was the eighth largest beef supplier to the US, exporting 32,798 mt, while the US imported 1.56M mt overall, says the report.
The report summarizes current market conditions with these six statements: Cattle producers are enjoying record prices, while beef packers are suffering under negative margins; The shortage of market-ready cattle continues, adding further pressure to packers’ margins, which first dropped to negative values in September 2024; Packing plant utilization rates have dipped and some facilities are scaling back operations, including reduced shifts and shortened workweeks; Uncertain immigration policy moving forward can have an impact here as well; Trade policy uncertainty from proposed tariffs adds to the cost pressures on the cattle market; Additionally, foreign animal disease import restrictions, particularly on Mexican feeder cattle, are another contributing factor to increasing cattle costs; Consumer demand has remained resilient with improved beef quality. However, prospects for elevated cattle prices and the beef those cattle yield remain directly tied to the extent end-user consumer demand can remain robust, says the report.
Cattle Prices Surpassed 2014-2015 Highs
Cattle prices were at record levels for most of 2023, surpassing the 2014-2015 previous record highs as the cattle herd rebuilt from the previous low points of the cattle cycle, says the report. Through 2024, prices continued at new record levels and increased further into 2025, exceeding an average of $242 cwt. in August, the highest nominal price on record. Cash prices declined to $232 per cwt in the first two weeks of October but futures contracts are at record levels even after being adjusted for inflation. The previous highs in October 2015 would be $222 per cwt in today’s dollars, $10 per cwt below the current prices as of October 14, it says.
This has put US beef packers under financial pressure, says the report. Packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending October 4, 2025, average weekly packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, according to the Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a packer margin of a negative $165.96 per head. Conversely, cow-calf producer margins for 2025 are estimated to be up 122.3% from 2024 to $900 per head. Feedlot margins are estimated to be up 351% from 2024 to $514.33 per head. But packer margins have declined 120% from already negative margins in 2024, says the report.
The share of the retail beef dollar also indicates that producers have been faring well, says the report. The producers’ share of the retail beef dollar was 55% in August 2025 and has averaged 54% so far in 2025. The packers’ share has dropped from 13% to 5%, reflecting the negative packer margins. Regarding packer concentration, the report says the four-firm concentration ratio in the beef cattle industry has not changed appreciably over the past 30 years.