THE U.S. beef complex is four weeks away from the start of the grilling season. May is the strongest month of the year for beef demand and participants are looking for post-Easter sales to start picking up. But consumers face record high or near record high beef prices in the grocery store and on most restaurant menus. Weekend retail meat sales remain slow, a victim of higher energy prices and overall uncertainty by consumers in the current chaotic economic environment, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Seasonal improvement is expected and hoped for in the post-Easter period, commencing the spring grilling season, he says.
Consumers remain the key to continued strength for the beef market, says Wilson. February retail sales rebounded according to the Commerce Department’s latest report, posting a 0.6% increase from January when the number was slightly negative. But these sales numbers did not reflect the impact of the military action and war with Iran that began the last day of February. Since that time, U.S. gasoline prices are up approximately 35%, with the national average price now more than $4 per gallon.
Hiring data from private ADP reports show a steady private-sector job growth, reinforcing the idea that the current environment is one of low-hire, low-fire employment activity, says Wilson. Also of note, a major firm that specializes in retirement funds reported that the number of emergency/hardship withdrawals from retirement funds tripled in the past year to 6% of requested withdrawals. U.S. consumers in the adjustment process of evaluating budgets are seeking value. Luxury and high-priced choices are becoming more difficult to justify. As a caution in this environment, the beef to pork cutout ratio has moved to an all-time high level, he says.
Beef Cutouts Show Decline
Boxed beef cutout values were firm the week before last as they gained support from light production levels. The latest actual slaughter total (for the week ended March 22) was 502,062 head, the smallest regular week total of the year. The year-to date total (to the week before last) was an estimated 6.535M head, down 10.2% on the same period last year. Year-to-date beef production was down 7.8%, reflecting much heavier carcass weights. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $397.49 per cwt, down $1.31 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $394.79 per cwt, down ten cents. But the daily Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $3.39 per cwt to $389.58 per cwt. Meanwhile, the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (mostly cow beef) set a new all-time record for the second week in a row. The price in the week ended March 28 averaged $441.61 per cwt, up from the prior record the previous week of $438.57 per cwt. Both smashed the earlier record of $435.31 per cwt set the week ended September 6 last year.
Cash live cattle prices were firm the week before last. The 5-area prices averaged $235.69 per cwt live or $371.70 dressed. These were up $0.68 per cwt and down $0.35 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. The cash trade through last Wednesday was largely inactive. But the April live cattle futures price last Thursday closed more than $10 per cwt above the prior week’s cash price. This led to trade in all regions at $245 per cwt live. Meanwhile, fed cattle graded a record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the fifth week in a row. For the week ended March 21, cattle graded 14.65% Prime and 73.47% Choice. The total of 88.12% exceeded the prior week’s record of 88.10%. This means the price spread between Prime and other beef remains narrow.
MEAT IS CENTER OF FOOD CONVERSATION
MEAT now sits in the center of the food conversation around the country, following the release in January of the new food pyramid as part of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2025-2030. Meat takes a prominent place in the pyramid, and one of the reasons for that is the advocacy work carried out by the Meat Institute, the meat and poultry industry’s major trade association. The Institute says it has been in conversation for the past year with the federal government and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about positioning meat and animal protein front and center in people’s lives.
Julie Anna Potts, the Meat Institute’s president and CEO, discussed how the trade association worked with Kennedy, invited him to share his perspective at the 2026 Annual Meat Conference and collaborated to get the message of meat out across the country. As the Make America Healthy Again movement continued to broaden, Potts and the Institute saw it as an opportunity to positively promote meat’s many attributes. “When he became the standard bearer for changing the dialogue on health through what you eat, we thought, this is a great opportunity for meat and poultry to be recognized as the nutrient-dense products that they are,” Potts said after interviewing Kennedy during the Annual Meat Conference (AMC), as reported by Meat+Poultry.
For the first time in many years, the Meat Institute hosted a fly-in to Washington, DC, in September 2025, where they were able to take members of its executive board and some committee members to the White House to meet Secretary Kennedy and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Moving forward to 2026, Potts said the Meat Institute and others will be part of the conversation on how the dietary guidelines will be implemented in school meals and other areas of the American food system.
Along with its connection to the executive branch on meat, the Meat Institute is also advancing its support for the Poultry Industry Food Safety Council and broadening the places experts can go for information on the important topic of food safety. “In the last couple of years, we have really focused on what more can we do to elevate awareness of food safety at the executive level,” said Potts. The Meat Institute has continued to invest in online learning programming, including introducing the basics of Listeria prevention and other important educational initiatives.
Institute Develops Food Safety Toolkit
Another point of emphasis was to have a small task force of food safety experts in April 2025 develop a guide called “Food Safety Toolkit for the Executive,” which provides senior executives with a playbook to guide employees in this area of their business. “It’s a template for the kinds of questions that a CEO needs to be able to ask and understand the importance and demonstrate that it’s not just my food safety people that need to be aware of the risks,” Potts said. “You really want to know that the risks are being adequately managed wherever they may be and this for a meat or poultry company is one of the biggest risks we have.”
Another 2026 topic has been the reduction in beef capacity, notably with Tyson Foods closing its Lexington, Neb., plant and shifting to a single operation in Amarillo, Texas. With the U.S. cattle supply moving down to its lowest level in nearly 75 years, Potts discussed how the near-term capacity cuts would affect Meat Institute members. In addition to a historically low cattle herd, the threat of New World Screwworm near the Texas border has left 1.2M live cattle that normally come across the border from Mexico stay there. Potts acknowledged the difficult conditions, including the challenges with major beef trading partner China right now but said there is no silver bullet to fix the situation.
Potts and others also explained at the AMC how companies and customers will view new technology, whether it’s implementing more artificial intelligence into business practices or making changes to existing automation. “I do think that AI is going to revolutionize a lot of data and analytics that are needed,” said Potts. She’s also heard not just about applications for sales and supply chain planning but also about how food safety can predict problems by analyzing images seen by AI models.
JBS BEEF NORTH AMERICA MINIMIZES LOSSES
JBS Beef North America minimizes its losses in its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter to an adjusted operating loss of $15M, versus a profit of $42M in 2024’s fourth quarter. But it has a full year loss of $568M in adjusted operating income, compared to a $16M profit in 2025. The segment reported record sales both in the quarter and in 2025, with fourth quarter sales of $7.662 billion up 19.7% on 2024’s $6.400 billion. Full year sales were $28.137 billion, up 15.9% on 2024’s $24.286 billion.
Resilient U.S. demand supported this performance, even with cutout values remaining at historically high levels, says parent company JBS SA. However, in both periods, the increase in cattle prices outpaced the change in cutout values, reflecting tighter cattle availability amid the ongoing U.S. cattle cycle. In addition, live cattle imports from Mexico were restricted beginning in May 2025, further constraining supply in the U.S. market for much of the year. As a result, margins remained under pressure in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025, it says.
JBS in its fourth quarter and full year reported record overall sales, with top-line growth across all business units. This reflected the strength of the company’s multi-geography and multi-protein platform, it says. Net income totaled $415M in the quarter, versus $413M in 2024, and $2.024 billion in 2025, versus $1.767 billion in 2024. This represented year-over-year growth of 1% and 15%, respectively. Free cash flow totaled $990M in the quarter and $400M for the year. Return on equity reached 25%, while return on invested capital was 17%. Net sales in the fourth quarter rose 15% to $23.06 billion from $19.97 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. For the 2025 fiscal year, JBS reported $86.18 billion in sales, up 12% from $77.18 billion in 2024. Closing 2025 with 15% revenue growth, the highest in JBS’s history, demonstrates the strength and resilience of its diversified platform across proteins and geographies, said Gilberto Tomazoni, JBS’s global CEO. “At the same time, the 15% increase in net income reinforces the consistency of JBS’s execution, supporting robust margins and its ability to continue generating growth and value for its shareholders, he said.
JBS USA Pork Has Record Sales
JBS USA Pork reported record sales for the quarter and full year. It reported $2.15 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, up 7.5% from the same quarter in the previous year. It reported 2025 sales of $8.431 billion, up 3.9% from 2024. Adjusted operating income in the quarter was $104M, versus $194M. Income for the year was $617M versus $780M. Sales were supported by a strong domestic market performance driven by solid demand and the company’s continued efforts to expand its value-added and branded product portfolio, says JBS. Solid demand, combined with controlled costs and strong operational execution, resulted in margins in line with historical levels, both in the quarter and for the year. Pork’s performance in 2025 reflected its focus on commercial execution, operational excellence and the strength of its brands, said Tomazoni.
Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. reported $4.515 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, up 3.4% from the previous year. It reported 2025 sales of $18.4 billion, up 3.5% from 2024. Adjusted operating income in the quarter was $295M, versus $414M. Income for the year was $1.821 billion versus $1.788 billion. Pilgrim’s Pride performance reflects the progress and benefits of its long-term strategies, says JBS. Results in the U.S. demonstrate the strength of its operations and disciplined management. The U.S. Fresh portfolio benefited from strong demand, while Key Customer demand remained solid. The portfolio continues to evolve, becoming more resilient and balanced to capture market opportunities while mitigating risks, says JBS.
The Fresh business outpaced industry growth and diversification through branded offerings reached a milestone as Just Bare® achieved $1 billion in sales, says JBS. In Europe, results continued to improve, supported by manufacturing optimization, management integration, and a better product mix, with positive Key Customer demand and new launches. Despite a challenging scenario in the live commodity market during the quarter, Mexico increased sales and volume compared to 2024. The company continues investing to expand its geographic footprint and grow its prepared foods presence, says JBS. More JBS results on the next page.
JBS Australia Has Big Year
JBS Australia had a big quarter and full year in terms of sales and income. It reported $2.290 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, up 29.7% from the same quarter in the previous year. It reported 2025 net revenue of $8.077 billion, up 21.5% from 2024. Adjusted operating income in the quarter was $184M, versus $107M. Income for the year was $791M versus $534M (up 48.2%). The sales growth was primarily driven by higher prices in both domestic and export markets and was also supported by increased volumes, says JBS.
The beef segment was the primary driver of the year-over-year improvement in profitability in both periods, says JBS. Strong commercial dynamics, combined with continued operational efficiency gains, more than offset the approximately 30% year-over-year increase in cattle costs in the quarter and the roughly 20% year-over-year increase in 2025, citing Meat & Livestock Australia data. In the other segments, EBITDA improved, particularly in pork and fish, driven by operational execution and higher productivity, says JBS.
JBS Brazil reported record sales in both the quarter and the year, growing 26% and 21%, respectively, says JBS. Higher prices partially offset the sharp increase in cattle costs during the period. Even in this context, the company recorded the highest slaughter volume in its history. In the export market, strong global demand, combined with geographic diversification, drove performance This boosted sales across several strategic regions while also enabling the development of new markets. In the domestic market, results reflected stronger brand equity, solid commercial execution, improved service levels, and continued value-added offerings through Friboi’s supermarket butcher specialization program.
ECUADOR SIGNS TRADE DEAL
ECUADOR became the ninth country to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the U.S. on March 13. Once the agreement is implemented, it will greatly expand opportunities for U.S. beef and pork, says the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). The agreement will remove tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. beef and pork exports even though it will take time to be fully realized, says USMEF’s Erin Borror. Tariffs of 20% on beef and 45% on pork are mostly phased out. However, there are exceptions for pork, including the 30% tariff on processed pork products, which will remain.
The tariff on beef is basically 20%, and that is phased down to zero in the agreement over three years, says Borror. For pork, tariffs of 45% are mostly phased out. There are some exceptions, as further processed products and sausages will see tariffs remain at 30%. But for most of the frozen and nearly all of the chilled potential business, those tariffs are phased out from 40%, she says.
The agreement also calls for recognition of all USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) inspected facilities as eligible for export to Ecuador. Like most of the reciprocal trade agreements, this removes the need for individual facility approvals, says Borror. This has been really key across these agreements, getting countries to recognize FSIS, the U.S. food safety authority, as the competent authority. It therefore recognizes all FSIS inspected facilities as eligible to export rather than going through onerous questionnaires, plant by plant audits and maintaining plant lists, which have gotten to be unmanageable, she says.
Current exports to Ecuador are minimal, says Borror. The U.S. exported $3M in beef last year and pork was practically nothing, so there is great potential. She predicts that export growth will be similar to what was seen in Guatemala after passage of the Central America Free Trade Agreement. Guatemala has a similar population and per capita GDP. Guatemala entered a free trade agreement with the U.S. in 2006 and has increased shipments of beef and pork since implementation. U.S. beef exports to Guatemala grew from $3M in 2006 to $105M in 2025, while pork exports went from $10M to $148M, she says.