CASH live cattle prices surge, just when they were expected to continue their summer slide. The 5-area regional trade the week before last saw steer prices average $237.21 per cwt live or $379.21 per cwt dressed. These were up $7.78 per cwt and $9.91 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week, the largest weekly increases of the year. Of note was that live prices (FOB) up north dominated the average. A total of 23,215 head sold there at an average $238.93 per cwt while another 4975 head, presumably all down south, sold at an average $229.17 per cwt. This reflected the widest north-south live price premium of the year. The live price fell just short of the highest price reported so far this year, $238.91 per cwt the week of June 15, which was also an all-time record high. The dressed price fell $1.13 per cwt short of the new record reported the week of June 8.
The cash live cattle trade was slow to develop last week, with only 2333 head reported sold through Wednesday. Trade picked up on Thursday. Corn Belt prices averaged $237-242 per cwt live or $380 per cwt dressed. Cattle sold in Kansas at $231 per cwt live. No cattle were reported sold in Texas by Thursday afternoon. Northern prices thus maintained their large premium to prices down south. The call was for prices to be steady at best compared to the levels from the prior week, said Andrew Gottschalk of HedgersEdge.com on Thursday morning. Uptrends for cash cattle prices remain intact at these levels. It is important to realize that a violation of early week lows on a closing basis in the live cattle futures markets could also jeopardize the current cash cattle uptrend. A positive cash basis should keep hedgers as willing sellers, he said.
Carcass Weights Decline Versus Last Year
Carcass weights in the latest reported week ended July 5 all remained well above year ago levels but declined year-on-year from the week before. Steer weights averaged 933 lbs, the same as the week before but up 17 lbs from the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 855 lbs, up 1 lb on the week before and up 21 lbs from last year. Overall weights averaged 866 lbs, up 1 lb from the week before and up 19 lbs from last year. Also of note is that cattle continue to grade a high percentage of Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage in the latest reported week ended July 5 was 84.43%. In contrast, cattle are grading below 13% Select.
Meanwhile, daily boxed beef cutout values take a huge tumble as beef production returns to normal levels after the holiday-shortened week. As CBW previously reported, July beef demand typically weakens from June because of the onset of the so-called dog days of summer. Americans tend to grill less because of hotter weather and instead eat more chicken and cold cuts. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $5.36 per cwt to $373.28 per cwt and the Select cutout declined by a massive $12.68 per cwt to $353.84 per cwt.
The national boxed beef comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $387.54 per cwt, down $1.10 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $386.70 per cwt, up $0.35 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $371.65, down $3.71 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 60.0% of the total volume of 6784 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 27.2%, forward sales accounted for 12.4% and export sales accounted for 9.8%. Also of note the week before last was that the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) averaged a new record high of $415.91 per cwt, up 11.2% from the same week last year. This beat the previous record of $408.95 per cwt set the week before. The price of fatty trimmings (50CL) averaged $261.99 per cwt, up 127.2% from the same week last year.
TARIFF WOULD KILL BRAZILIAN BEEF IMPORTS
THE U.S. for the past two years has increasingly relied on Brazilian beef to fill a shortfall in the production of domestic lean manufacturing beef. Brazil exported 227,00 metric tons (mt) of beef to the U.S. in 2024, up 60% from 2023. Imports from Brazil in the first five months of this year more than doubled from the same period in 2024 to 175,000 mt. That accounted for 21% of total U.S. imports for the period. Now the imports are in peril.
President Trump’s threatened 50% tariff rise on all Brazilian imports into the U.S. would make the sale of Brazilian beef to the U.S. unviable, Brazilian authorities and trade sources said. This was after Trump announced the tariff hike on all imports from August 1. If carried out, the new tariff would come on top of existing tariffs of 26.4% under the MFN ‘Other Country’ quota within which Brazil operates. The tariff measures would make the cost of Brazilian beef so high that it would be unfeasible to sell the product to the U.S., said the Brazilian Beef Exporters Assn (ABIEC) on July 11.
President Trump framed the 50% additional tariff threat as a response to what he described as a “politically-motivated witch hunt” against former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who faces charges related to an alleged coup attempt. In a letter to the Brazilian President, Trump stated the tariffs were imposed “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on free elections and the fundamental free speech rights of Americans.” He also cited vague economic reasons for the tariffs, such as “unfair trading practices,” and ordered U.S. officials to open a trade investigation into Brazil.
In the absence of market access to other high-paying Asian destinations like Japan and Korea, Brazil would be forced to ship even more product into markets like China, where Brazil already consigns about half of its total export volume, says Jon Condon of Beef Central. In the meantime, Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) has been entrusted with seeking new markets to replace placements that may be affected by Trump’s threatened additional tariff. The move was designed to minimize the tariff measure’s impact, Brazilian Ag Minister Carlos Fávaro told local media.
Brazil Will Seek Important Markets
Favaro will reinforce these actions, seeking the most important markets in the Middle East, South Asia and the Global South, which have great consumer potential and may be an alternative for Brazilian exports, he said. Proactive actions will take place at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to minimize the impacts. Fávaro described the U.S. government’s action as ‘indecent’ and said the Brazilian government was acting proactively. He had already spoken with the main representative entities of the most affected export sectors, including beef, orange juice and coffee, to find alternatives, he said.
According to experts interviewed by Agência Brasil, one of the short-term side effects is likely to be a drop in domestic Brazilian meat prices. In the U.S. the reverse was likely to apply, with the exclusion of Brazilian beef likely to force already high beef prices even higher, says Condon. Trump’s plan for a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil will likely raise prices for the beef, as U.S. food manufacturers increasingly rely on Brazilian (along with Australian) imports in manufacturing American hamburgers, during a time of declining domestic production, traders and analysts told Condon.
The tariff proposal is also a blow to U.S. meat companies facing tighter cattle supplies due to a halt of livestock imports from Mexico over New World screwworm. The tariff would slash imports of Brazilian beef and force companies to seek supplies from other nations as Trump is broadening his global trade war, analysts told Condon. If the tariff policy does not get modified, you just cease the importation of Brazilian beef to this country, said Bob Chudy, a consultant for U.S. companies that import beef. Not one pound will be economic at those levels, he told Reuters. The tariff will likely raise the price of beef, a staple food for many, on the heels of Congress voting to reduce food assistance to the most vulnerable consumers, said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America.
RUSSELL CROSS RETIRES
DR. RUSSELL Cross, senior professor in the Department of Animal Science at Texas A&M, retires after a 58-year career that focused on meat science and food safety. Cross is credited as being a pioneer whose work connected the dots between meat science, education and research and applying them to real-world industry practices that have become standards today. As an academic, food research scientist, research supervisor, administrator and industry chief executive officer, Cross tackled major issues in the meat industry and made significant changes for the betterment of both consumers and industry, Texas AgriLife said in a statement announcing his retirement, as reported by Meat+Poultry
Evidence of his work has resulted in improvements in the food supply chain and still impacts education, on-farm and meat inspection practices, while establishing proven standards for meat processing and ensuring consumer safety, said the statement. His diverse career included 37 years of service at Texas A&M University, 13 years at USDA and eight years working in the private sector. At Texas A&M, Cross held many leadership roles, including: two appointments as the head of the Department of Animal Science; chief of staff to the Texas A&M University president, executive vice president for operations; deputy vice chancellor and associate dean for Agriculture and Life Sciences; Texas A&M AgriLife Research associate director; founding director of the Institute of Food Science and Engineering; first holder of the E.M. Rosenthal Chair in Meat, Animal and Food Science; and section leader of the Meats and Muscle Biology Section of the department.
During his time working at USDA, Cross was administrator of the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. While working at the Meat Animal Research Center in Clay Center, Neb., he served as research leader within the Meat Research Group. During his tenure as FSIS administrator, the infamous Jack in the Box E. coli outbreak occurred. The deadly outbreak changed food safety forever, said Cross. The Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) program was mandated and food safety regulations were dramatically changed.
After his service at FSIS, Cross returned to Texas A&M and developed the International Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Alliance to provide universal guidelines and a uniform food safety program. The alliance was created with the valuable expertise of Kerri Gehring, professor of meat science and associate vice chancellor for academic collaboration and associate dean for administration at A&M. At the time, there were no universities teaching anything about HACCP, so Dr. Gehring and Cross formed the international alliance to certify an accredited training, he said.
Jeff Savell, vice chancellor and dean for Agriculture and Life Sciences at Texas A&M AgriLife, who has worked closely with Cross for nearly 60 years, applauded his accomplishments and underscored his significant contributions to food safety and the meat processing industry. Dr. Cross has helped shape the meat industry as we know it today, and he has raised the standard for how the world thinks about food safety, said Savell. His integrity and knowledge are deeply respected, not only by those of us who worked beside him, but by professionals across the industry, in regulatory agencies and in academia, he added.
JBS SHIPS BEEF TO VIETNAM
JBS S.A. shipped its first load of beef to Vietnam on July 5. JBS’s Friboi processing facility in Mozarlândia, Brazil, as well as its Gôiania, Brazil, plant, were recently approved to export to Vietnam. JBS’s entry into the Vietnamese market is a strategic move that represents more than just access to a new trade destination, it says. It widens JBS’s presence in Asia, a region with growing demand for animal protein and increasing economic relevance. The Vietnamese market has been on U.S. exporters’ radar for a while now. With a population that exceeds 100M people, and GDP growth estimated at 7.6% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, the country is poised as one of Southeast Asia’s most promising markets for animal proteins. Vietnam last year imported approximately 300,000 metric tons of beef and buffalo meat to help meet domestic demand of a growing middle class.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 98.8%, placed 96.0%, marketed 96.0%; Kevin Coburn, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 99.0%, placed 97.5%, marketed 95.9%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 99.0%, placed 96.8%, marketed 96.2%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 99.1%, placed 98.1%, marketed 96.2%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 99.1%, placed 99.1%, marketed 96.9%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 99.3%, placed 98.9%, marketed 95.9%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 100%, placed 101%, marketed 96%
JULY 1 COF IS SMALLEST IN EIGHT YEARS
THE July 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total was the lowest July total in eight years. This was in large part because June marketings were only 91.5% of a year ago after taking one extra slaughter day this year into account. June feedlot placements were likely to be close to year ago levels, as this Friday’s COF report will show. The COF total was 134,000 or 2.7% below the previous five-year average, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. However, front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on July 1 were estimated to be 3.054M head. This was 13.8% above the previous year and 14.5% above the previous five-year average, an increase of 387,000 head. Total COF numbers are estimated to move lower into August by 225,000 head, he says.
June and July are typically the smallest placement months of the year and likely will be the case this year as well, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. Favorable pasture conditions, limited feeder cattle imports, last year’s smaller calf crop and indications of modest heifer retention combined to limit feedlot interest. Historically high feeder cattle prices and elevated projected breakevens in relation to spot feeding margins tempered placements. Still, June feedlot placements were projected slightly higher than last year. This was mostly a reflection of last year’s historically small June placements which were around 8% smaller than the 2016-19 average and the smallest since 2016. Apart from the poor swap on feedlot replacements, the wide spread between the marginal cost of gain and fed cattle selling prices incentivized a slow marketing pace and further hampered late spring feedlot placements, he says.
Marketings Were Smallest Since 2015
June marketings were projected near 96% of last year on one less business day during the month, says Sands. Adjusted for that difference, the weekly marketing rate plunged nearly 9% below last year and was the smallest since 2015, when the industry had 900,000 head fewer cattle on feed. As a result, June marketings as a percent of the feedlot inventory were record small and followed a slow marketing rate in April and May. From a broader perspective, feedlot inventories at the beginning the year were about 1% smaller than a year earlier and July-December 2024 feedlot placements over 800 lbs were about 1% larger than a year earlier. This suggests January-June fed cattle supplies about the same as a year earlier. But January-June marketings plunged nearly 430,000 head or 4% below a year earlier, yet another indication of building front-end supplies, he says.
July 1 feedlot inventories were projected just fractionally smaller than a year earlier, says Sands. The inventory on feed more than 150 days was estimated about 14% larger than a year earlier, record large for the date and a counter-seasonal increase from a month earlier. This further denotes the large front-end supply of fed cattle heading into the summer months, he says.
Geographically, most of the placement activity and larger feedlot inventories remain in the north, says Sands. They are accompanied by continued declines in the south, exacerbated by the Mexican border closure. Although the July 1 feedlot inventory is expected to be similar to last year, the number of steers on feed may be close to 2% larger than last year, while heifers on feed fell about 4% below a year ago. Heifers on feed may be just over 38% of feedlot inventory, well below recent years and thus hinting at some modest heifer retention, he says.