CASH live cattle prices were thoroughly predictable during the summer and early fall. But they have declined sharply since the start of November for several reasons. Prices were already falling when Tyson Foods announced on November 21 that it was closing its Lexington, Neb. beef processing plant and reducing its Amarillo, Texas plant to one full shift. These actions won’t take effect until January 20. But the fact that they will take out 7700 head of daily slaughter capacity immediately spooked the market. The December live cattle contract on November 24 fell by 725 points and the weekly cash price averaged $17.41 per cwt live, down $7.65 per cwt from the prior week.
The average fell again the week before last to $211.53 per cwt live, down another $5.88 per cwt live. Dressed prices in the same two weeks fell by $21.56 per cwt to $329.38 per cwt. Prices however looked to rally last week after the prior weekend saw a snow and ice storm hit the upper Midwest. Analyst Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com, forecast early week that the storm would have producers increasing their offering price levels. Southern Plains offerings might begin at $224-225 per cwt live while Corn Belt offerings were likely to begin at $222-223 per cwt live and $342-345 per cwt dressed. The only cash trade through Wednesday last week was of 1032 head selling in Iowa-Minnesota at $217 per cwt live or $343 per cwt dressed. These were the same prices as those in the week ended November 22. Thursday morning saw a more active trade in Iowa and Nebraska at $218-223 per cwt live or $340 per cwt dressed. No trade had occurred down south.
Carcass Weights Set New Records
Given the winter storm that impacted the upper Midwest, carcass weights have likely peaked at the record high levels reported for mid-November, says Gottschalk. However, the week ended November 22 saw weights soar to new record highs in all three categories, surpassing the records set the prior week. Steer weights averaged 988 lbs, up 2 lbs from the week before and up 36 lbs from the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 897 lbs, up 8 lbs from the week before and up 36 lbs from the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 897 lbs, up 4 lbs from the week before and up 30 lbs from the same week last year. The increase in overall weights was the equivalent to adding 20,375 head to that week’s slaughter total of 588,843 head.
Boxed beef cutout values meanwhile declined the week before last week and fell again last week. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $370.27 per cwt, down $1.65 per cwt from the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $366.56, down $2.61 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $352.02 per cwt, down $0.94 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 61.4% of the total volume of 6270 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 26.3%, forward sales accounted for 12.3% and export sales accounted for 10.6%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $4.10 per cwt to $362.72 per cwt.
Live cattle prices are now more than $20 per cwt off their August peak of $244.25 per cwt live, says analyst Kevin Grier. But prices remain $20 per cwt greater than last year for the week. The futures undertone remains weak but the fed cattle basis is normal for this time of year, right around zero. Beef cutouts are slowly declining as they normally do in November. Packer margins are finally in the black. Fed cattle availability should be about 5% less than last year from now through January. Packers are more comfortable with December contracts than last year, says Grier.
GLOBAL PRODUCTION WILL FALL 3.1%
THE global beef industry in 2026 is expected to see the contraction in production continue, with an estimated drop of 3.1% from 2025. Beef production in key producing and consuming regions is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2025 compared to 2024 volumes, resulting in the first global beef contraction in five years. So says Rabobank in its latest global beef quarterly report. New Zealand is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in production, down 4.7% (34,000 metric tons), while the US, with its larger production base, is expected to see the largest drop in volume, falling almost 500,000 metric tons (down 4%). Canada and the EU27+UK are also expected to see a contraction of 3.9% and 3%, respectively (50,000 metric tons and 225,000 metric tons).
Northern Hemisphere cattle prices have remained elevated in comparison to Southern Hemisphere prices, says the report. Southern Hemisphere cattle prices all edged higher through September and October, with the exception of Argentina, as southern cattle supplies are being drawn on to supply Northern Hemisphere markets. Rabobank’s report also looks at Mexico’s cattle and beef sector, which it says is establishing itself as a global beef player. Mexico is entering 2026 at a pivotal moment, says the report. After two consecutive years of herd contraction, driven by drought and strong export incentives, the supply situation is finally stabilizing. However, the adjustment remains uneven, influenced by disease-related (screwworm) border restrictions, shifting trade flows and volatile domestic prices, margins and costs, says the report.
Canada is experiencing a similar tightening pattern to the US, says the report. Net beef exports from January to August were roughly 41,000 metric tons lower than a year earlier. Rabobank expects Canadian beef supplies to become more limited in 2026. In New Zealand, beef output is also trending down. Adult cattle production from January to September was just over 475,000 metric tons, around 6% below the same period in 2024. Rabobank forecasts fourth quarter production to come in about 2% lower than in the final quarter of 2024, implying an overall decline of roughly 5% for 2025. Rabobank expects Chinese beef production to grow slightly in 2025, with prices slowly recovering as the market works through previous oversupply.
Cattle Prices Will Remain High
Cattle prices in key production regions around the world are increasing or remain near record highs as global beef supply starts to tighten, says the report. With further contraction expected in 2026, the outlook for beef prices remains strong, according to Rabobank. With only a short runway to the end of the year, the report says global beef production in 2025 is expected to contract by 0.8% year-on-year, led by a significant dip in US volumes.
Against the backdrop of lower production, cattle prices in New Zealand and other southern hemisphere countries, with the exception of Argentina, edged higher through September and October as southern cattle supplies are being drawn on to supply northern hemisphere markets, says the report. US and Canadian prices did fall slightly through this period but they remain at near record highs and well above those of their southern hemisphere counterparts says Rabobank’s Jen Corkran.
AUSTRALIA’S BEEF EXPORTS SET NEW RECORD
AUSTRALIA’S booming beef exports this year have already hit an all-time calendar year record high, reaching 1.398M metric tons (mt) by the end of November. This was up 15% on the same 11-month period last year. The result is all the more remarkable because it was achieved with a month’s trading still to be completed before the end of the calendar year, say Beef Central’s Jon Condon. The previous calendar year volume record of 1.34M mt was set last year but it has been apparent for some months that the record was likely to be smashed in 2025. Barring some calamitous weather event between now and Christmas, total 2025 Australian beef exports will finish well above 1.5M mt. November shipments to all export markets reached 131,700 mt, up 11% on a year ago and the fifth biggest shipment month on record, say Condon.
Strong Cattle Prices Underpin Record Year
Strong cattle prices, especially as the year has progressed, combined with a national herd at the upper end of historical numbers at 30.4M, have helped underpin the record-setting trade year, says Condon. Monthly export data for November and the year-to-date show just how substantial trade this year has been, with a number of new records set. Grain-fed exports in the first 11 months hit a new calendar year record at 403,860 mt, up 19% on last year. Last calendar year (including December trade) saw grain-fed exports at 375,000 mt.
However the growth in grain-fed exports has not come at the expense of grass-fed exports, as occurred in 2020-2021, says Condon. The grain-fed ratio this year has been almost 29% of the total beef trade. Back in the 2019-20 period, grain-fed beef accounted for only 19-20% of total trade but this was lower than 2021-22 when herd rebuilding was in full swing. November’s grain-fed shipments alone reached 38,393 mt, up 18% on the same period last year, and reflected the big growth in lot feeding operations seen over the past year, he says.
While trade to most significant export markets has grown this year in the absence of export competition from the US and unusual tariff movements, trade into the US remains the export story of the year, says Condon. Chilled and frozen volume to East and West Coast ports this year has already reached 412,068 mt, up 17% on the same period last year. November volume hit 38,393 mt, still well behind the extraordinary 43,000 mt shipped in July and 45,000 mt shipped in October last year but still historically high, he says.
Other key markets have also grown substantially this year, with volume to Greater China for the first 11 months reaching 279,534 mt, up 37% on the same period last year, says Condon. November trade to China hit 22,759 mt, up 14% on last year. Trade into South Korea is also heading towards an annual volume record this year, having reached 200,213 mt for the 11 months and 17,400 mt for the month just passed, he says.
COSTCO SUES OVER TARIFFS
COSTCO Wholesale has sued the Trump administration before the Court of International Trade, asking it to consider all tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) unlawful. The company said in a filing that it is seeking a full refund of all duties under the act paid as a result of President Trump’s executive order that imposed what he called reciprocal tariffs. Because IEEPA does not clearly authorize the President to set tariffs…the Challenged Tariff Orders cannot stand and the defendants are not authorized to implement and collect them, Costco’s lawyer writes in the lawsuit.
The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda, say reports. In oral arguments in early November, justices appeared skeptical about the government’s case. Both conservative and liberal justices asked tough questions of Solicitor General D. John Sauer, although some of the conservative judges seemed more sympathetic to his arguments. Trump became the first president ever to use the IEEPA law to impose import duties. Lower courts earlier ruled against the administration’s use of the law but kept the tariffs in place while the case was argued.
Costco does not say in the filing how much the duties have cost the company. Importers have paid nearly $90 billion under the IEEPA law, according to U.S. Customs and Boarder Protection data through late September. Through the end of October, the government had collected $205 billion in tariffs. In May on Costco’s earnings call, CFO Gary Millerchip told investors that about one third of Costco’s sales in the U.S. are imported products. Items imported from China represented about 8% of total U.S. sales. Millerchip said that while Costco was seeing a direct impact from tariffs on imports of some fresh food items from Central and South America, it decided not to increase prices because they are key staple items for its customers. Some of those fresh food items include pineapples and bananas. Costco essentially held the price on those items to make sure that it is protecting its members, he said. Millerchip in September told analysts it continued to work closely with its suppliers to find ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs. This included moving the country of production where it makes sense and consolidating its buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods across all markets.
PROCESSORS CONTRIBUTE $57.3 BILLION
THE U.S. meat and poultry processing industry directly contributes $57.3 billion to the US economy and provides 584,000 jobs. The wider industry, which includes livestock production, animal feed, equipment manufacturing, transportation and more, contributes $347.7 billion in value to the nation, supporting 3.2M jobs. This is according to an economic study disclosed by the Meat Institute.
The meat and poultry industry is a critical and growing part of the US economy and one that has outsized importance to rural economies, says Julie Anna Potts, the Institute’s president and CEO. Its member companies are often the biggest employers in their rural communities and their impact goes beyond jobs. In addition to the taxes they pay, they invest in their communities with generous donations of food and make financial and other irreplaceable contributions to local infrastructure like housing, community spaces, schools and childcare, she says.
Some key findings in the study, conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions, regarding direct contributions to the national economy in 2025 include: $57.3 billion in value; Nearly 584,000 jobs; $40.6 billion in labor income; $311 billion in total sales (output); $12.5 billion in local, state, and federal taxes; After accounting for these indirect and induced effects, the total economic contribution of the US meat and poultry processing industry is $347.7 billion in value; More than 3.2 million jobs; $205.3 billion in labor income; $911.7 billion in total sales (output); $77 billion in local, state, and federal taxes.
The meat and poultry processing industry generates significant economic activity in other industries, says the study. These include livestock and poultry production, animal feed manufacturing, grain and oilseed production, truck and rail transportation, equipment manufacturing and more. The study also estimates the economic contributions of the meat and poultry processing industry for each state and federal congressional district. While the meat and poultry processing industry drives some economic activity in every state and nearly every district, there are some areas where the industry’s impact is undeniably irreplaceable. Top states are Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas, California and Arkansas, says the study.
CARGILL COMPLETES FORT MORGAN WORK
CARGILL completes a nearly $90M renovation at its Fort Morgan, Colo. beef processing plant and confirms it will not be closing any facilities. Cargill feels confident it has the right footprint to support the market today and for the future and will continue operating its primary North America beef processing plants, said a spokesperson. In fact, it is not only operating them but is investing in them. Cargill announced last June it would spend nearly $90M for automation and new technologies at the plant as part of its ongoing Factory of the Future initiative. One automated solution going forward will be CarVe, Cargill’s proprietary, patent-pending computer vision technology. The program will enable real-time measurement of red meat yield, giving frontline managers the ability to share feedback with employees to improve cutting techniques.
NEW NWS CASE IS CLOSE TO BORDER
USDA notifies Texas officials of a new detection of the New World screwworm (NWS) in Montemorelos, Nuevo León, Mexico, approximately 120 miles south of the Texas border. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed the case in a 22-month-old bovine transported from Veracruz to a feedlot in Nuevo León. This detection marks the northernmost active case currently found in Mexico. It is also the second detection at the same Nuevo León feedlot since October. No additional cases were linked to the October detection and both events appear tied to livestock movements from southern Mexico. The Texas Ag Commissioner says Texas remains free from detection but that officials and ag leaders cannot be complacent.