THE U.S. exported $1.5 billion of beef and beef variety meat to China in 2024. Volume was 157,000 metric tons (mt), which was an average of 3019 mt per week. Now the industry is waiting for shipments to resume and wondering how soon weekly shipments might reach those achieved in 2024. Various issues still have to be resolved, including significant technical barriers. Following talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi, China agreed to restore export access to 425 U.S. beef plants that have been excluded from the market since early last year. The exclusion meant that beef exports to China fell by 67% last year versus 2024. Another factor is how quickly U.S. exporters can renew their relationships with customers in China.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is awaiting more details from the U.S. government on the developments, it said the week before last. But USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said USMEF greatly appreciates U.S. beef access being prioritized at the summit meeting between President Trump and President Xi. Renewal of U.S. beef establishment registrations is a critical step forward for U.S. beef exports to China. USMEF awaits more details and a further readout from USTR’s engagements with China. It also notes with appreciation Trade Ambassador Jamieson Greer’s optimism for U.S. agricultural trade with China. China’s renewal of U.S. beef establishments is excellent news for the U.S. beef industry and for the customers in China who are anxious to resume purchases. This major positive development comes ahead of China’s huge SIAL food show, said Halstrom.
China Will Buy $17 Billion Worth of Products
China’s General Administration of Customs granted new five-year registration to 425 ‘overdue’ U.S. beef establishment licenses, with an additional 77 new establishments added to the system. Another 38 U.S. beef establishments remain suspended. Overall, China has agreed to ramp up trade for U.S. agricultural products, buying at an annualized rate of $17 billion per year for 2026 and at that level for 2027 and 2028, the White House said. China would restore market access for U.S. beef and resume imports of poultry from U.S. states determined by USDA to be free of the bird flu, the White House said. The deals are on top of China’s soybean purchase commitments last year.
The agreements offer some hope to American farmers harmed by the trade war as they saw a major market for soybeans and other products dry up, said an Associated Press story. Farmers also are feeling new pressure from Trump administration policies. The war that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran has curtailed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade corridor that has restricted global fertilizer supplies and sent those prices soaring.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said the two sides would resolve or make substantial progress toward resolving certain non-tariff barriers and market access issues regarding agricultural goods. The U.S. would actively work to address China’s concerns regarding detention of its dairy products, seafood, the export of potted bonsai and the recognition of Shandong province as a bird-flu-free zone, while the Chinese side will likewise actively work to address U.S. concerns regarding the registration of beef processing facilities and the export of poultry meat from certain states to China. The two sides also agreed to expand trade, including that of farm goods, through measures such as reciprocal tariff reductions on a specific range of products. More on China on the next page.
China Sharply Cut Back Imports During Trade War
USDA data show that China’s imports of U.S. agricultural goods peaked in 2022 with $38 billion but fell to $8 billion in 2025. These figures include nearly $18 billion in soybean purchases in 2022 and $3 billion in 2025. It’s not immediately clear how much more China would buy from American soybean farmers, who were hit especially hard in the trade war, said AP. China, traditionally the largest foreign buyer of American soybeans, stopped purchasing them altogether last year after Trump hiked tariffs on Chinese goods.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted the outcomes saying, “$17 billion in new purchase commitments, in addition to the 25M mt soybean commitment; U.S. poultry will be back on the table in China, as they are resuming U.S. imports; U.S. beef is also on the menu, as China is renewing licenses for more than 400 beef facilities and is adding new listings. This was the No. 1 “ask” by our ranchers who want to sell many of the “leftover” cuts of the animal (hides, skins, tongues, tendons, tripe, etc.) for additional value,” she said.
Meanwhile, the feeling in Australia is that U.S. beef returning to China will have little impact on Australian beef exports to China. It has not been made clear how China plans to treat U.S. beef imports under this year’s severe quota measures that will see Australian and Brazilian exports hit with a 55% tariff sometime during the back half of this year, says Beef Central. Australia has now hit 80% of its 2026 quota of 204,000 mt, and is likely to trigger the tariff around the middle of June, it says.
In practical terms, renewed U.S. access to China means relatively little to Australia this year, says Beef Central. U.S. domestic production is severely hampered by a national cattle herd at a 75-year low and domestic beef production down 15-20% compared with two years ago. “Given the high price of U.S. beef, we do not think there will be a rush of U.S. beef heading for China following the announcement,” said analysts Steiner Consulting. However, there is some pent up demand for high quality, grain-fed beef, as well as for fatty beef trimmings to blend with lean beef from Brazil. Under the terms of its access to China this year, the U.S. has a quota of 164,000 mt, suggesting it will not go within a bull’s roar of triggering its 2026 tariff, says the Beef Central story.
Australia Has Large Female Slaughter
Meanwhile, sustained and vigorous female turnoff in the drought-impacted regions across northern New South Wales (NSW) and southern Queensland has pushed Australia’s national Female Slaughter Ratio (FSR) in the March quarter towards extreme levels. Quarterly survey data shows that the ratio climbed from 52% to 53% in the January-March quarter, says Beef Central. This was close to the recent highs of 54% seen in the June quarters last year and the year before, when Victoria and southern NSW were hit hard by drought. Before that, FSR had not been this high since the 2019-20 continental-scale drought event.
The combination of northern NSW/southern Queensland drought turnoff, on top of an abundance of surplus females in parts of northern Australia already at stocking capacity, and continued strength in global manufacturing beef prices has driven the surge in female kill, says Beef Central. Underpinning the FSR number last quarter was female slaughter of 1.221M head out of a total slaughter tally of 2.302M head. This was the highest March quarter slaughter tally on record and up 10% on the year before. The female slaughter total of 1.221M head was the highest seen since September last year, says Beef Central.
In terms of beef produced, the quarter ended March 31was the highest March quarter on record and the second highest quarter ever at 730,000 mt. This was exceeded only by the September quarter last year when volume hit a record 759,000 mt. Historically, the March quarter is the smallest of the year for Australian beef production, due to the annual seasonal closures seen at large export plants across Queensland. March beef production volume was 43,000 mt or 6% higher than the same quarter last year. For the first time in history, Australian cattle producers (including lot feeders) received sale proceeds for slaughter cattle exceeding A$6 billion for a quarterly period, up from A$4.4 billion for the same quarter last year, says Beef Central.
CATTLE PRICES TAKE A BREATHER
CASH live cattle prices take a breather after three record-breaking weeks in a row. The week before last saw new record highs. The 5-area steer prices averaged $262.85 per cwt live or $411.07 dressed. These were up $4.33 per cwt and $8.57 per cwt, respectively, from the week before. Trade last week began on Wednesday and continued through Thursday. Prices were mostly $260 per cwt live or $408-415 per cwt dressed. Meanwhile, fed cattle graded a record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the 11th week in a row. For the week ended May 2, cattle graded 15.22% Prime and 73.20% Choice. The total of 88.42% exceeded the prior week’s record of 88.40%. Carcass weights remain at record levels for this time of year, In the week ended May 9, steer weights averaged 985 lbs, up 7 lbs from the prior week and up 40 lbs from the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 900 lbs, up 3 lbs from the prior week and up 35 lbs from the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 904 lbs, up 5 lbs from the prior week and up 31 lbs from the same week last year.
Packers meanwhile continue to lose more than $300 per head on fed steers and heifers as they are unable to push cutout values higher. The comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $391.12 per cwt, down $0.57 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $387.92 per cwt, down $0.7 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 27.2% of the total volume of 6201 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Formula sales accounted for 62.3%, forward sales accounted for 10.8% and export sales accounted for 8.4%. But the Choice beef cutout gained $2.23 per cwt the first four days of last week to settle at $391.48 per cwt last Thursday.
The Memorial Day holiday this week will drop the weekly harvest total under 500,000 head, possibly by tens of thousands, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. This expected production cut may finally allow cutout values to gain traction and advance prices. Generally and seasonally, this is the two- or three-week period when packers can more easily advance cutout values. The seasonal demand push that has been expected is slow in arriving and product markets have not yet been able to clean up the inventories that have been providing a drag on prices. The packing industry is operating on the belief that the holiday will change some of these circumstances, says Wilson.
Mexico Looks To Expand Beef Exports To U.S.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s meat industry is looking to expand beef exports to the U.S. as the country continues to deal with the economic fallout from the ongoing New World screwworm outbreak that has disrupted livestock trade between the two countries. According to Reuters, Mexico’s main meat industry group says it hopes to double beef exports to the U.S. next year to help offset losses caused by the continued closure of the U.S. border to Mexican livestock.
During the first four months of 2026, Mexican beef exports to the U.S. increased roughly 23%, officials with the Mexican Meat Chamber said. Fresh beef products made up the majority of those exports. In 2025, beef exports to the U.S. climbed 10.6% to approximately $2.3 billion, according to chamber data. “We’ve increased it and if it can be doubled, that would be excellent,” Macarena Hernandez, the chamber’s general director, told Reuters.
The U.S. border has remained closed to Mexican livestock for about a year as officials work to contain the spread of the flesh-eating parasite. The outbreak, which spread northward from Central America, has created challenges for both Mexican and U.S. cattle industries. As Reuters reported, the trade disruption has forced many Mexican ranchers to shift strategies. Rather than exporting live cattle, producers are increasingly holding and feeding animals domestically before processing them for beef exports, a transition that typically takes about 18 months. Producers are having to keep those animals, feed them and have the space and supplies to sustain them, said Hernandez. The Mexican Meat Chamber estimates the livestock sector has lost about $1.8 billion because of the border closure. While exporting processed beef offers an alternative market pathway, Hernandez said the transition remains in its early stages and export volumes are still relatively small.
USMEF TOUTS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
THE U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) outlines various market access developments at its annual spring conference. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom gave attendees an overview of the latest export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb. He also offered insights on key developments affecting market access for U.S. red meat, including the announcement that China has finally renewed registrations for U.S. beef establishments. This impasse had kept most U.S. beef ineligible for export to China for about the past year but some shipments have now resumed. He cautioned however that China must remove significant technical barriers before the market can be considered fully reopened.
LOCKOUT ROILS FORT MORGAN PLANT
CARGILL Meat Solutions locks out more than 1700 union workers at its Fort Morgan, Colo, beef processing plant a day after the workers rejected Cargill’s “last, best and final offer,” as reported by The Colorado Sun. “They voted 90% against the contract,” said Dean Modecker, secretary-treasurer of Teamsters Local 455, which represents the Cargill workers. “At that point, the employer notified us that at 12 o’clock last Wednesday, we would be locked out, What that meant is that the minute we left the parking lot, they put up the barriers. They put out security and they’re refusing to allow us back at the facility even though our members just want to work,” he said.
Negotiations between the company and union to replace a contract that expired in February broke down about four weeks ago. Essentially, workers were told to stay home with pay as negotiations continued. That pay ended last night, said Modecker. He was unsure how the plant was keeping up with processing beef for the past month and it usually processes 2500 head per day. Union workers are employed throughout the processing line, from the kill floor to cutting steaks.
In an email to The Colorado Sun, Cargill spokesperson Hli Yang said the company initiated the lockout because “continued uncertainty around a potential work stoppage creates challenges to operating safely, responsibly and reliably. Cargill respects employees’ right to vote and remains committed to reaching a ratified agreement with the union. The lockout was “a difficult decision and not the outcome we wanted. We believe our proposal is fair and competitive, representing an estimated $33.4M investment over five years. While negotiations continue, we remain focused on safety, responsible operations and serving customers through Cargill’s broader supply chain network. Under current plans, we do not expect material impacts to producers or customers,” she said.
Cattle to the Fort Morgan plant have been redirected to other company facilities to honor commitments to producers and customers, according to an update the company posted online. The company also shared that base wages are $23.50 per hour, up 53% since 2018. The average wage is $24.78 per hour. Cargill’s latest offer builds on that progress with a five-year agreement designed to provide employees with stability and predictable wage increases over the life of the contract, according to the company.
The lockout comes just months after Cargill began implementing the use of new artificial intelligence technology that it said would get more meat off every animal while keeping their workers healthier, safer and motivated to work harder. The CarVe technology works with cameras above a factory production line watching workers and delivering instant feedback on their performance to frontline managers. Cargill said that with the U.S. cattle supply at its lowest level in years, even a 1% yield improvement can keep hundreds of millions of pounds of beef in the food system annually, helping amid tight supplies and higher prices. But some have been critical of technology that captures everything from the pace at which an employee works to the sharpness of their knife and even, in Cargill’s words, their “emotional behavior” influenced by factors on and off the job, said The Colorado Sun.