BEEF demand in the U.S. has been stronger than expected in the past two years and this has been confirmed by new research by two Kansas State University agricultural economists. Consumer demand for beef is a stronger driver of high beef prices at the grocery store than expected, say economists Brian Coffey and Glynn Tonsor. They analyzed retail beef price and consumption data from recent years to clarify supply and demand dynamics amidst the current cattle industry contraction that began in 2019. They found there is more driving high beef prices than the more frequently cited liquidation and tight supplies. A look at the data readily reveals that market changes observed in the past few years are anything but one-dimensional, they wrote in a new research paper.
One factor that has received less attention than others is the role of consumer demand for beef, they wrote. The strength of consumer demand was especially highlighted between 2023 and 2024. Beef supplies at retail increased 3% in 2024 to 28.72 billion lbs, at a price of 801.3 cents per lb. The researchers’ analysis found that if demand were unchanged, that price would have been 726.7 cents per lb. The fact that consumers were willing to pay this higher price reflects substantial demand growth, they wrote.
Consumers Show Push Back Signs
Beef demand has remained strong so far in 2026. But there are signs of consumers pushing back against record high retail prices. The comprehensive cutout in the first five weeks of this year advanced by $12.80 per cwt. But beef production in that period was down 9.7% on the first five weeks of last year, as total cattle slaughter was down 11.7%. One would have expected such year-on-year declines to force cutout values much higher than they have gone, say analysts. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $366.50 per cwt, down five cents on the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $362.90 per cwt, up 72 cents. Spot market sales accounted for 26.5% of the total volume of 6607 loads of cuts and trimmings. Formula sales accounted for 55.8%, forward sales accounted for 17.7% and export sales accounted for 13.5%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $4.49 per cwt to $364.84 per cwt.
At the same time, cash live cattle prices have continued to rally and set new record highs for the Southern Plains the week before last. The Friday that week saw a price range of $240-$245 per cwt live, averaging just under $244 per cwt. The 5-area steer price averaged $241.31 per cwt live or $378.00 per cwt dressed. These were up $1.87 per cwt and $1.84 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. Of note is how the price spread between the north and the south has widened in recent weeks, reflecting tighter market-ready supplies down south. The cash cattle trade will eventually pause to digest the previous advances and prices will stall, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. It appeared that the price rally might falter last week. The only trade through Wednesday was of 263 head in Kansas at $243 per cwt live. Virtually no sales occurred Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, this coming Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected to show that the February 1 COF total was down about 2% from February last year, with January placements down several percentage points and January marketings down more than 8% after taking one less slaughter day than last year into account. Forecasts from CBW’s analysts revealed an average COF estimate of 98.2%, an average placement estimate at 95.5% (with a range from 92.2% to 99.5%) and an average marketing estimate of 87.1%.
TRUMP QUADRUPLES IMPORTS FROM ARGENTINA
PRESIDENT Trump signs an executive order that could quadruple the amount of beef imported into the U.S. from Argentina under a new trade agreement with the South American country. Argentina’s Foreign Ministry said the new agreement, which was signed on February 5, will grant an unprecedented expansion of preferential access for Argentine beef to its market to 100,000 metrics tons from 20,000 mt now, representing an increase of $800M in Argentine beef exports. The order clears the way for the U.S. to allow the importation of an additional 20,000 metric tons of beef every quarter at a lower tariff rate until the end of the year.
The agreement will involve only lean manufacturing beef and it is unknown right now how much of that beef Argentina will export to the U.S. The announcement has direct importance for Australia, as lean trimmings make up a core component of its annual U.S. exports, says Beef Central. Last year, frozen trimmings and cuts destined for the grind made up about 70% of Australia’s total exports to the U.S. of 450,000 mt. The main group representing American cattle ranchers previously said the increase in imports is a misguided effort and will damage the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.
In a statement last October, when plans for expanding imports were first reported, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn said it cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices. It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work, said Colin Woodall, NCBA’s CEO. Trump had previously prodded cattle ranchers to get their prices down in an effort to bring relief to consumers, a comment that was also criticized by cattle producers.
Entitled “Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer,” Trump’s executive order said that domestic production capacity has failed to keep pace with increasing demand in recent years, leading to higher prices. The order notes that the cost of ground beef has soared, peaking in December at $6.69 per lb. That is the highest level ground beef prices have reached since the Department of Labor started tracking prices in 1984. Trump’s order says he determined that it is necessary and appropriate to temporarily increase the quantity of beef imports. In addition, he determined that it is appropriate to allocate all of the increased in-quota quantity of beef, as established by this proclamation, to Argentina.
JBS INVESTS IN MIDDLE EAST
JBS SA, the world’s largest protein company, expands its operations in the Middle East. It will spend $120M to build a new meat production facility in Oman, focused on beef, poultry and lamb processing. The investment will primarily fund the completion of A’Namaa’s integrated poultry plant in the Ibri region of northern Oman, approximately 235 miles west of Muscat, the nation’s capital. There will also be funds for Al Bashayer’s beef and lamb processing plant in Thumrait, southern Oman, about 170 miles south of Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
JBS says it has acquired an 80% stake in the new food holding company, which consolidated two production assets in Oman. It includes a partnership with Oman Food Capital (OFC), which will keep a 20% stake in the project. OFC is the food and agribusiness investment arm for the Oman Investment Authority (OIA). The operation is expected to have a production capacity of around 300,000 metric tons per year, based on daily processing of 1000 cattle, 5000 lambs and 600,000, said JBS.
JBS earlier announced an investment of $85M to strengthen its operations in Saudi Arabia, which includes the expansion of a new facility in the city of Jeddah. With this expansion, JBS expects to double production capacity in the region by the end of 2026. The facility has been operating since 2025, according to JBS, and has already begun exporting to other countries in the region, including to Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. The expansion in Jeddah will generate 500 new jobs, bringing JBS’s total workforce in Saudi Arabia to approximately 950 team members.
MIDAN OUTLINES TOP TEN TRENDS
MEAT industry marketing company Midan Marketing releases its annual forecast of the top ten trends to watch for in the meat industry in the coming year. Its expansion of insights into the dairy industry is new to the annual report. Consumer expectations, shopping behavior and market pressures are ever-evolving, says Midan. The top ten trends reflect where shoppers are headed and what will matter most as they choose their proteins, says Kerry Beauchemin, director of brand strategy and insights at Midan. Companies that listen closely and move with clarity are best positioned to succeed in 2026, she says.
The 2026 outlook draws on continuous consumer tracking, marketplace evaluation and year-round analysis to identify the forces most likely to shape growth in the new year, says Midan. From rising wellness priorities to the shift toward AI-driven discovery, the protein landscape is entering a year that will require sharper focus and faster adaptation across the value chain. The No.1 trend is that sustainability moves from differentiator to expectation. Claims related to sustainability and transparency are shifting from being unique points of differentiation to becoming more mainstream, similar to how animal welfare claims did years ago, says Midan.
The growing focus on sustainability is affecting consumer purchase behavior, says Midan. According to its 2025 Health & Sustainability Messaging Research, respondents said they were most likely to currently purchase fresh meat products that are all natural (57%), grass-fed (55%), raised with no antibiotics (49%) and organic (43%). Midan encourages companies to start somewhere. Focus on progress, not perfection, and highlight partnerships with farmers and even seemingly small sustainability efforts. Additionally, be clear and transparent about products, it says.
Health and wellness will continue to dominate consumer behavior in the nutrition space, says Midan. Eighty percent of Americans report prioritizing protein content intake during at least one meal a day, according to the IFIC’s 2025 Food & Health Survey. With renewed focus on strength, longevity and wellness, meat is gaining recognition as a nutrient-dense food that supports physical and metabolic health. The Food as Medicine movement is driving this shift, positioning food as fuel for prevention, healing and vitality, says Midan in its annual forecast of trends.
Dairy Production Increases as Demand Grows
Consumer demand for plant-based and hybrid dairy products is growing, says Midan. The plant-based dairy market is expected to reach $34 billion by 2030, roughly 15% of milk production, according to MarkNtel Advisors Global Plant-Based Dairy Market Analysis. Midan also notes that the problem of tight beef supplies is not going away in 2026. USDA projects beef production will drop another 5% compared to 2025, the lowest since 2016. This will push already record high prices even higher. Even the price of ground beef, which has historically been considered a budget-friendly option, is climbing fast, says Midan.
Drought and high feed costs have led to herd contraction, say Midan. Furthermore, fewer imports due to tariffs and preventative measures against New World screwworm have added to the tumultuous factors driving beef prices to historic highs. However, beef-on-dairy is transforming the industry. Dairy calves are no longer a byproduct but a profit stream, with genetics optimized to produce high quality beef. These animals now grade Choice or higher and are proving that beef-on-dairy can deliver meat at quality levels that consumers demand. With beef prices where they are, other proteins, including pork, poultry and lamb, have the opportunity to expand in the market, says Midan.
Budgets will remain tight in 2026 but consumers still want to splurge on premium meats when the time is right, says Midan. According to the 2025 Power of Meat report, 27% of consumers are willing to spend more on meat when replacing a restaurant meal and 94% of consumers say they have reasons or occasions when they’re willing to spend a bit more on meat/poultry. A sixth trend is that brands bolster marketing to defend against private label’s rise in popularity, says Mida, More on this on the next page.
Private Label Is Sought After More
Private label product is sought after more by consumers as pressures like inflation and economic uncertainty persist, says Midan. According to Nielsen data, the sector grew to a 36.6% share of food dollars, up 4.7% year-over-year. Numerator reports that private label accounts for 25.6% of food units sold as of September 30, 2025. If you are a brand defending your share against private label, now is the time to double down on what makes you different. Investing in a brand can strengthen consumers’ loyalty, says Midan.
The meat industry’s commitment to using every part of the animal is yielding high value innovation, says Midan. Driven by a demand for wellness and sustainability, by-products are being transformed into premium goods like bone broth, collagen-infused items, beef tallow skincare and upscale pet treats. This trend extends beyond meat, with soy-based materials replacing chemicals in adhesives and plastics, and the overall pet food market projected to reach $78.5 billion by 2033, says Midan.
An eighth trend is that time-starved shoppers embrace easy meal solutions, says Midan. Feeling time-starved, consumers are motivated by ease, with more and more preference for pre-cooked options and quick meals over traditional sit-down dining. The Convenience Craver, a consumer persona identified in Midan’s Consumer Segmentation research, represents 17% of meat consumers and 18% of meat occasions. Consumers are increasingly interested in quick-prep options, comfort meals and creative ways to cook with basic ingredients like chicken and ground beef, according to the Power of Meat study. Value-added and deli-prepared meat and poultry products are gaining traction, especially among Millennials, says Midan.
A ninth trend is that social commerce increases and e-commerce goes mainstream, says Midan. Social media is no longer just about inspiration, it’s a direct path to purchase. Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z turn to social platforms like TikTok and Instagram for meal inspiration, according to a Publicis Commerce study. A YouGov survey found that 30% of U.S. TikTok users made a purchase on TikTok Shop in the past year. For meat and dairy brands, this means meeting consumers where they scroll, offering shoppable recipes, influencer-driven content and seamless buying experiences, says Midan. It also notes that once a buzzword, artificial intelligence (AI) now wields power over conversations and consumer behavior. By 2035, generative AI could influence nearly 40% of today’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This will signal a massive shift in how people search and decide what to purchase, says Midan. Already, over half of U.S. online shoppers aged 18–34 used AI-powered tools for shopping research or inspiration in 2024. AI is the biggest change for marketers since Google, says Midan To stay relevant where consumers are searching and shopping, brands will need to stay visible where AI pulls reviews, influencer content, social platforms, product data and brand values, it says.
BSE RESEARCH HOLDS IMPLICATIONS
SCIENTISTS have found a possible new source for BSE, as CBW reported in its January 2, 2026 issue. Their findings might hold major implications for feed and livestock producers. The lessons from the BSE outbreaks about proper rendering processes and better feed safety remain relevant today, says Beef Central. The prevention path is clear: maintain endotoxin-removal processing steps and monitor contamination. Any industrial feeding system that doesn’t control this could create conditions for neurodegeneration, says Burim Ametaj, a nutritional immunologist at the University of Alberta. Ametaj is also cautiously optimistic about how the findings could help prevent or treat human diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. It opens up an entire anti-inflammatory medicine toolkit. Bacterial endotoxins have been found in the brains of Alzheimer’s patients, so risk factors that reduce dementia, exercise, anti-inflammatory diets, gut health, metabolic health, might work partly by reducing endotoxin burden. These diseases are complex but if endotoxin exposure contributes to even 20-30% of cases, controlling this modifiable risk factor could spare millions of people. Scientists might prevent some neuro-degenerative diseases the way they prevent heart disease, he says.