RETAIL beef prices remain at record high levels, suggesting that beef demand will come under more pressure this fall. Two other negative factors could conspire to further weaken demand. The first is the federal government shutdown, which began at midnight last Wednesday. Mandatory price reporting for livestock transactions expired on September 30. The law requires meatpackers to report to USDA the prices they pay for cattle, hogs and lambs. USDA then publishes daily and weekly reports with information on pricing, contracting for purchase, and supply and demand conditions for the livestock industry. It was unclear late last week what information will or will not be published, although USDA Thursday did not put out data on weekly slaughter totals and carcass weights. Any gaps in information will be negative to the livestock markets. The second negative factor is that consumer confidence in the economy in September fell to its lowest level since last April.
Uncertainty regarding the federal government shutdown and the resulting impacts will likely rattle consumers near term, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. Uncertainty is generally the enemy of any market. The challenge of maintaining positive beef demand will be aggravated near term by the shutdown. Payday falling during last week should help to bolster some renewed consumer demand for and purchases of beef. That said, the competing meats may begin to capture more of the meat and protein dollars from the consumer. Average retail beef price gains have far out-stripped the retail advances in the competing meats. Consumers have noticed. Reduced weekly harvest levels may be necessary to maintain beef cutout values at or above the next level of price support, he says.
Failure to continue publishing livestock reports would jeopardize swine, cattle, and lamb producers’ ability to market their animals effectively, said the National Pork Producers Council last Monday. Additionally, NPPC pointed out that USDA’s Risk Management Agency utilizes LMR data to determine ending values and indemnities owed to producers under Livestock Risk Protection insurance policies. Thus, any disruptions in LMR reporting could impact the settlement of these policies while the government is shut down.
Confidence Index Falls To 94.2
The Conference Board’s confidence index, a measurement of consumers’ views on the economy, dropped to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August. This was down from a 100-point baseline set in 1985, marked the lowest reading since April and was below Wall Street’s estimates of 96, according to FactSet. More respondents indicated lowered expectations about the job market, according to the survey: About 26.9% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, the lowest level since February 2021, while roughly 19% said jobs were hard to get.
Consumers’ views of their current financial situation declined in the largest month-over-month drop since the data was first collected in July 2022, the Conference Board reported. Fears about a recession remained strong as more consumers thought the U.S. economy was already in recession. The Conference Board’s expectation index, a measurement of consumers’ short-term outlook on the market, fell to 73.4, still below the 80-point threshold that signals a recession. Available job openings rose more than expected to 7.23M from a revised 7.21M reading in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Tuesday. The hiring rate dropped to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024, while the number of people who quit their jobs decreased by 75,000. The BLS last Friday reported jobs data for September and economists believe the unemployment rate will hold firm at 4.3%.
MARKETS CONTINUE THEIR RETREAT
THE cash live cattle and boxed beef markets continue their price retreat and analysts wonder what might help them stabilize in the next two weeks. Cattle prices declined for the sixth week in a row last week. The week before last saw USDA’s 5-area steer price average $232.65 per cwt live or $364.97 per cwt dressed. The live price was down $4.86 per cwt from the previous week, while the dressed price was down $5.91 per cwt. The cash trade last week was again slow to develop. A light trade Tuesday saw 2833 head sell at $230 per cwt or $360 per cwt dressed up north and at $233 per cwt in Kansas. A more active occurred up north Wednesday at similar prices.
Boxed beef cutout values fell again sharply last week almost as much as the week before. That week saw the national weekly cutout average $382.60 per cwt, down $10.46 per cwt from the week before. This meant it fell $26.6- per cwt in three weeks. The Choice cutout averaged $379.92, down $11.95 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $360.61, down $12.04 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 53.5% of the total volume of 6983 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 30.6%, forward sales accounted for 15.9% and export sales accounted for 15.8%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $8.21 per cwt to $363.22 per cwt while the Select cutout declined by $9.04 per cwt to $343.40. The four-day spot market volume was moderate at 425 loads of cuts.
STEAK IS MORE THAN JUST A PROTEIN
STEAK is more than just a protein, it’s a signal of quality, indulgence and experience, So says Glendon Taylor, marketing director for Cargill’s North American Food Business in discussing Cargill’s first-ever “State of Steak – Foodservice Edition” report. The report, which draws from new proprietary research, provides a comprehensive perspective on how consumer expectations for steak have evolved across the foodservice sector. Highlighting the emotional and economic significance of steak, the report reveals the growing pressure foodservice operators face to get steak right. Cargill’s research shows that steak can be a business driver for restaurants but only if it consistently delivers on expectations like doneness, tenderness and presentation, says Taylor. That’s why understanding the guest mindset is critical.”
Giving context as operators navigate shifting expectations, the report digs into what factors are shaping consumers’ steak experience. Key topics include changing consumer preferences, definitions of quality and operational challenges for consistency. Cargill lays out the most impactful insights it gathered from the report, which include: 1. The loyalty challenge.Today’s competitive landscape means missing the mark on steak is a missed opportunity for loyalty. Past experience is the No. 1 driver of restaurant choice, Cargill says, so delivering a consistent quality product is important to grow and retain a customer base. Cargill’s research found that one in four steak consumers reported being dissatisfied with their last restaurant steak, citing issues with doneness, cut availability or inconsistent quality.
2. Clarity and flexibility of menus.According to the report, guests gravitate toward the “Big Four” steak cuts: ribeye, sirloin, filet and New York strip. At the same time, they are increasingly seeking menu clarity and flexibility. Foodservice operators that clearly label grades, offer recognizable cuts and provide steak in a range of formats are better positioned to meet evolving expectations and maximize menu performance, Cargill explained. 3. The emotional power of steak.Whether it’s a celebration, indulgence or reward, steak can hold deep meaning for diners. While steak is often positioned as a splurge on a special occasion, Cargill encourages operators to position it as a premium everyday indulgence. In addition to these key highlights from the report, Cargill noted other areas where foodservice operators can elevate the steak experience. For example, training both front- and back-of-house staff can be very important. Servers who can confidently guide guests through cuts and doneness levels as well as chefs who consistently deliver on flavor, texture and visual presentation can improve consumers’ overall steak experience. Cargill added that menus should feature the most popular cuts while offering flexibility in sizing and formats to appeal to a wider range of consumers. Quality cues like USDA grade and “no artificial ingredients” can help the item stand out on the menu, it said.
FDA APPROVES FIRST NWS DRUG
THE U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conditionally approves the first drug prevention treatment for New World screwworm (NWS) infestations in cattle. The treatment, known as Dectomax-CA1 injectable solution, can also be used to prevent reinfestation for 21 days. FDA understands the urgency with which America’s farmers and ranchers are asking for tools to fight New World screwworm, said FDA Commissioner Marty Makary. The conditional approval, the first in the U.S. for NWS, shows FDA’s dedication to rapidly advancing important animal medicines when they are needed most. It continues to work tirelessly to complete review of other NWS products to protect multiple animal species in the U.S., said Markey.
Sponsored by animal health company Zoetis, Dectomax-CA1 injectable solution is available in 250 mL and 500 mL bottles, said FDA. Its label will contain both Dectomax and Dectomax-CA1 indications while each drug has a unique application number. Dectomax is already fully approved under a New Animal Drug Application for treatment and control of certain nematode and arthropod parasites in cattle and swine. Both Dectomax and Dectomax-CA1 contain the same dose of the active ingredient doramectin injection. Because the original approval of Dectomax included adequate target animal safety studies, manufacturing information, and human food safety information, FDA did not require new information to support those aspects for the conditional approval of Dectomax-CA1, it said.
TYSON PAYS $85M OVER PORK PRICE LAWSUIT
TYSON Foods agrees to pay $85M to settle a lawsuit by consumers who accused the largest U.S. meat company of conspiring with rivals to inflate pork prices by limiting supply in the $20 billion U.S. market. The preliminary class action settlement is the largest in more than seven years of antitrust litigation by the consumers against pork producers, surpassing Smithfield Foods’ $75M in 2022. It would boost consumers’ overall recovery to $208M, including settlements with Brazil’s JBS, Hormel Foods and other defendants.
Tyson, based in Springdale, Arkansas, is the last publicly traded company to settle. It did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Triumph Foods and data provider Agri Stats remain defendants. Dozens of supermarket chains, including Kroger, restaurant chains, including McDonald’s, food producers and food distributors have also sued over pork prices. Plaintiffs said the alleged conspiracy ran from 2009 to 2018, and was intended to increase the defendants’ profits as well as prices. Similar litigation alleging price-fixing of beef, chicken and turkey is pending in other federal courts.
FARMS HIRE MOSTLY MEXICANS
AMERICAN farms hire roughly 2.5M people annually to pick crops, milk cows, manage nurseries, tend livestock and otherwise keep farms running, says an analysis of federal data by UC Davis economics professor Philip Martin. Most farmworkers in the U.S. are immigrants, particularly from Mexico. Some foreign workers come to the U.S. just for seasonal work through the H-2A guest worker visa program. Many more, approximately 1.7M Mexico-born farmworkers, according to Rural Migration News, are settled in the U.S. and have worked on U.S. farms for decades. Of these settled workers, roughly half have some sort of legal residency status or U.S. citizenship, while the other half, an estimated 850,000, are unauthorized to live in the U.S.
Another 1.7M people work in food processing plants, says Martin, citing USDA data. Many are refugees and approximately 19% are in the country without authorization, according to the New American Economy research group. In the largest food processing segment, meatpacking, the American Immigration Council estimates that 45% of all workers are immigrants and around 23% are unauthorized. Food workers and farmers are worried about what President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown will mean for their livelihoods, their families, and the nation’s food supply, says Martin. The anticipation of not knowing what’s coming down the pike is creating a lot of sleepless nights for agricultural employers, says Michael Marsh, president and CEO of the National Council of Agricultural Employers.
THOMAS FOODS INVESTS IN FORMER TYSON PLANT
SOUTH Australia’s Thomas Foods International (TFI) has invested in a Florida processing facility formerly owned and operated by meat giant Tyson Foods.This isanother reflection of the growing importance of the U.S. market for Australian beef and sheep meat exports, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon. TFI already has a large footprint in the U.S. market, launching a sales and distribution division in 2009. The company now processes and distributes more than 45,000 metric tons of Australian beef, lamb and goatmeat each year through its primary U.S. operations based at the Lakeside Processing Facility in Swedesboro, New Jersey.
The Florida facility will evidently be run as a southern extension, says Condon. TFI bought the former Tyson Foods plant in Northwest Jacksonville the week before last. The plant is designed to produce portion-controlled, pre-packaged, retail-ready meat products for U.S. supermarkets, and is designed to pack directly from a master box into the meat case or retail shelf. Jacksonville City Council records suggest that TFI is prepared to spend $28M on the vacant facility. The warehouse was built in 1974. Tyson closed the facility in 2024, moving to a larger location. Records show that TFI plans to build-out the current 17,000 square meter facility, creating up to 100 new jobs within its first three years of operations.
According to a report held by the Jacksonville City Council, the facility will produce about 450 mt of finished product per week, says Condon. International port access at nearby Jacksonville was apparently a consideration. TFI has gradually expanded its overseas sales and distribution operations, with divisions in the U.S., China, Japan, the UK and Europe, as well as Australian production facilities. TFI entered the U.S. market in 2009, when the Thomas Family joined forces with U.S. business Food Comm to create TFI USA, one of the first businesses to supply high quality chilled grassfed beef to a national retailer in the U.S. The business continues to grow and expand, now distributing more than 45,000 mt of quality meat products year round, says the company’s website.
From its state-of-the-art facility in New Jersey, built in 2010 and located minutes from the Port of Philadelphia, TFI delivers high quality pasture-raised lamb, a range of beef solutions from grass-fed to grain-fed, Angus, Wagyu, organic beef and free-range goat, to businesses across the U.S, says the website. Australian beef exports to the U.S. have boomed this year in the face of the U.S. domestic beef herd now at 70-year lows, says Condon. The U.S. remained easily Australia’s largest beef market for the month of August and year-to-date, with August volume hitting 40,754 mt. The consistently high 2025 export results continue to reflect strong U.S. demand, says Condon.
U.S. Beef Lands In Australia
Meanwhile, Condon says it is yet to show up in official trade records but there was strong evidence last week that U.S.-produced beef has now re-entered or is about to re-enter the Australian market for the first time since a food-safety related ban was imposed 22 years ago. While trade occurred only occasionally in the distant past, U.S. beef was suspended from importation to Australia in 2003, following the discovery of BSE in the U.S. beef cow herd. After a lengthy process, the Federal Government on July 25 formally announced the renewed trade access for both U.S. and Canadian beef.
Since then, there has been wide speculation about when the first shipments might occur, says Condon. But before any breathless city media reports emerge about prospects of Australia being flooded with U.S. beef, let’s put it into context, he says. The first consignment to be completed since the lifting of the 22-year long suspension is a handful of cartons of chilled USDA Prime and Choice grade steak cuts, at most. Beef Central understands the special one-off shipment has been organized by the U.S. Embassy and Agricultural Attache in Canberra, to be used for ceremonial reasons at a hosted event in the national capital or Sydney in mid-October.