CASH live cattle prices continue their record-setting pace for the sixth week in a row, The 5-area fed steer price the week before last averaged $226.45 per cwt live, up $1.65 per cwt from the prior week’s $224.80 per cwt, which was the previous record. The price was 20.1% higher than the price the same week last year. Dressed prices averaged a new record high of $357.67 per cwt, up $1.61 per cwt from the prior week’s $356.06 per cwt. The price was up 19.5% on the same week last year. Last Wednesday saw new record high prices. An active trade up north had prices averaging $229-231 per cwt live or $360-370 per cwt dressed. A light trade in Kansas had prices at $224-227 per cwt live or $358 per cwt dressed. The only trade Thursday morning was up north.
Steer carcass weights in the latest reported week ended May 10 increased sharply from the prior week but heifer weights were flat with the week before. Both remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 945 lbs, up 7 lbs from the week before and up 22 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 865 lbs, flat with the prior week and up 17 lbs on the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 873 lbs, up 2 lbs from the week before and up 19 lbs on the same week last year. This was the equivalent of adding 12,475 head to that week’s slaughter total of 560,823 head, says HedgersEdge.com.
Boxed beef cutout values meanwhile rose sharply the first four days of last week. The Choice cutout increased by $8.48 per cwt to $360.97 per cwt. The Select cutout increased by $6.56 per cwt to $339.18 per cwt. The four-day volume was light at 270 loads of cuts. The week before saw the national comprehensive boxed beef cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) average $342.46 per cwt, up from $337.37 per cwt in the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $342.43 per cwt., Spot market sales accounted for 30.1% of the total volume of 6393 loads, formula sales accounted for 51.3%, forward sales accounted for 14.2% and export sales accounted for 7.9%.
Beef Demand is Great Story
Beef demand in Canada can be viewed as a good news story, while U.S. beef demand can be viewed as a great news story, says Canadian market analyst Kevin Grier. Based on beef production and trade and population data, per capita beef consumption (pcc) in 2024 can be estimated. Based on that data, it is estimated that per capita beef consumption in Canada declined about 3% last year to hit just over 23 kilograms (50.7 lbs) on a carcass basis. That consumption was the lowest value on record and was more than two times smaller than the largest pcc of 52.75 kgs (116.3 lbs) which occurred in 1976. Coinciding with the very low consumption last year was record high retail beef prices that increased 8% last year. Beef prices have increased 38% over the average in 2019. Prices increased more than chicken and pork last year and since 2019. When consumption and deflated consumer beef pricing are tabulated, it shows that Canadian beef demand increased about 2% last year compared to 2023. Despite the decline in pcc, beef demand, which includes price, increased last year, he says.
While Canadian beef consumption declined by 3% last year, U.S. beef consumption increased by 3%., says Grier. When combined with a 5% increase in the U.S. beef consumer price, it translated into a 5% increase in demand in 2024. U.S. beef consumption was higher than at any time from 2011-2021 despite much higher prices. This is the definition of improved and robust beef demand. U.S. beef demand is the engine that is powering cattle prices now. If it was not for consumer demand, there is no chance that cattle prices would be close to where they are today, says Grier.
JBS OUTLINES TARIFF IMPACTS
REDUCED demand and lower prices for cattle hides has been one of the immediate impacts from recent tariff changes between the U.S. and China, global meat processing giant JBS told analysts during a call with financial analysts about its first quarter results. In one of the longest calls hosted by JBS’s senior management in recent times, analysts probed JBS over its upcoming proposed dual listing on the New York Stock Exchange, the impact of recent tariff changes, the health of the company’s U.S. and Australian beef businesses, U.S. consumer spending and other topics, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon.
Barclays analyst Ben Theurer asked about the health of JBS’s beef business in the U.S. and export headwinds, particularly in the second quarter ending June 30. JBS U.S. beef division head Wesley Batista said 2025 was a much more difficult year for U.S. beef operations than 2024 from a margin perspective. JBS is seeing some signs of U.S. herd rebuilding through much lower rates of female slaughter among non-fed animals. The rates are down about 14% versus the same time last year, which in turn was down on the year before. It is encouraging in terms of herd rebuilding prospects. It’s not as fast or intense as JBS would like but they are positive signs for a U.S. herd rebuild. JBS still expects that 2026 will be a better year than 2025 but probably not 100% in terms of recovery, he said.
For JBS’s U.S. beef business, recent tariff changes are costing the business from a margin perspective about 1% to 1.5%, said Batista. A lot of that is coming from JBS’s by-products. A lot of hides go to China and get processed there. It is a very important market for hides. That’s kind of gone away. Referring to the 90-day tariff truce called by President Trump, Batista said it was probably only going to impact half the current quarter. With all that, JBS is seeing that 2025 will be a challenging year for its U.S. business. The second quarter will be very challenging compared to same time last year. But even though the U.S. beef business continues to be challenged, JBS is going to be able to continue to show relatively stable margins given the geographic and species diversification of the business, he said. While the U.S. has these challenges, JBS is seeing positives in other geographies and in other proteins. It continues to be very confident and thinks the diversification advantage that JBS has is going to be clearer than ever, said Batista.
Batista Cites Plant Re-Registration
Another analyst asked whether the tariff impact was limited to hides or whether it also extended into red meat. Batista said it was important to understand that U.S. trade into China is currently impact by two factors. One of them is the high tariffs that China and the U.S. put against each other. That has had one impact but the second one is beef access to China for US exporters. Most U.S. beef plants are not approved to export to China due to China’s delay in re-registering lapsed facilities. The first issue obviously got improved with the deal between the U.S. and China to lower tariffs. That’s had an immediate impact on the market. But for beef, it’s different because of the plant approval delays, said Batista.
The larger part of the tariff impact on the beef side is hides because a lot of them went to China and it represents a very large share of the total export of hides, said Batista. That made it more difficult to maneuver into other markets. But beef is not the same as hides. For beef, JBS has other markets that it can continue to export to and have the appropriate destination for that product. Whenever the tariffs come back to a lower level, the effect is usually pretty immediate. But on the beef side, it’s going to take longer because JBS has to regain its registration approvals to China, he said.
Another analyst asked what JBS is seeing with U.S. consumer behavior and retail trends for red meat as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer grilling season. Batista said that overall, strong consumer demand remains for all three proteins produced by JBS in North America, which is beef, chicken and pork. When it comes to beef, JBS is seeing lower rates of processing of fed cattle but it also has much higher carcass weights, up more than 3% this year on 2024. Overall, it’s not like JBS has a lot less beef, he said. It actually has a little bit more beef to sell when it comes to fed beef (steers and heifers going through feedlot programs). With that, JBS had a 9% higher beef cutout year-over-year in the first quarter. This meant very clearly to JBS that it was demand-driven and that U.S. demand is strong. JBS sees that across the three proteins, he said. More on JBS’s comments on the next page.
JBS Sees Shift From Food Service To Retail
JBS is seeing a trend where U.S. consumers are moving from food service to retail in their meat eating habits, Batista told analysts. This is something JBS has been talking about for a while. But he doesn’t see that this is necessarily because retailers are doing some sort of aggressive features. It’s not as specific as that. He thinks it’s just a trend where people are seeing better value by getting a good meal at home versus eating out, and that’s more to do with that than any specific future activities, he said.
CONSUMERS WILL SEE HIGHER MEAT PRICES
CONSUMERS are likely to see higher prices for beef and chicken at grocery stores as the grilling season kicks off over the Memorial Day weekend. Year-over-year prices for beef and chicken are up while prices for pork cuts fell slightly in April, says market analyst David Anderson of Texas A&M University.
April’s All Fresh beef retail price averaged $8.50 per lb, up from $8.42 per lb in March and up 6.9% from $7.95 per lb in April last year. April’s Choice beef retail price averaged $8.83 per lb, up from $8.75 per lb in March and up 8.3% from $8.15 per lb in April last year. April’s pork retail price averaged $4.91 per lb, down from $4.95 per lb in March but up 2.1% from $4.81 per lb in April last year. April’s chicken retail price averaged $2.06 per lb, the same as in March but up 5.6% from $1.95 per lb in April last year.
The market gets a seasonal run going into Memorial Day as the weather gets nicer and people start firing up their grills, says Anderson. Certain meat cuts peak around the holidays but demand during grilling season can influence prices across most all beef, poultry and pork items. Wholesale beef prices keep climbing and retail prices continue to set records. The Consumer Price Index, which he considers the monthly measurement of average prices and inflation, indicates that consumers have been dealing with beef prices creeping higher and higher across cuts. Wholesale beef prices continue to climb, some cuts more than others, he said.
Wholesale Choice ribeye steaks were $9.75 per lb at the end of April 2024 but reached $14.18 per lb the same week this year, says Anderson. Strip loins, another popular steak cut, are $10.72 per lb this year, compared to $9.28 per lb last year. Retail prices for lean ground beef, which includes lower-cost cuts and trimmings, took a similar path, $6.73 per lb last year to $7.48 per lb this year. A pound of ground beef was $4.50 in April 2019. Briskets skyrocketed in price over recent years as interest in low-and-slow barbecue boomed. But prices on the popular cut experienced a relatively small increase in wholesale markets compared to last year and remained lower than previous peaks, he says.
Prices Could Rise More
Anderson expects the latest year-over-year price spike could rise more as grilling season begins and demand increases. Higher input costs for beef cattle production have slimmed margins for ranchers but high cattle prices have been relatively good for producers, he says. However, beef production is down over recent years. The U.S. cow herd remains the smallest since 1961. Multiple years of drought in Texas, which accounts for more than 14% of beef cattle nationally, factored into that decline. Fewer cows going to market puts pressure on supplies and ultimately pushed prices upward at grocery stores, Anderson said.
Beef cattle weights are up overall, which helps mitigate the effect of a smaller herd but there are still only two briskets and so many rib-eyes per head, says Anderson. A lot of ground beef comes from cull cattle and the low herd numbers and lower production translate into tighter supplies of ground beef. As beef production has decreased, other meat options favored during grilling season like chicken and pork have increased. However, higher pork and poultry production have not translated into the same price paths for these options. Despite more production of broiler chickens, the birds that end up in grocery stores and restaurants, and increased supplies to meet demand, prices are still going up, he says. Anderson discusses chicken prices and the relationship between production and prices on the next page.
Chicken Prices Are Higher
Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts are $1 per lb higher than this time last year, $2.75 per lb compared to $1.75 per lb., says Anderson Legs, another favorite for summer grilling, are 88 cents per lb compared to 72 cents per lb last year. That’s not much of a change compared to recent years but it shows the underlying differences in the market for meats that people consume. Beef production goes down and prices go up, he says. Chicken production goes up and prices still go up. There are different market pressures at play, even down to the cut, whether it’s rib-eye steaks and briskets or chicken breasts and legs or wings. Pork on the other hand increased production and prices dipped. At wholesale, pork loins are 99 cents per lb, compared to $1.30 per lb last year, and spare ribs are $1.53 per lb compared to $1.79 per lb. Retail pork chops were $4.34 per lb last year but are $4.26 per lb this year, says Anderson.
March consumer demand for beef was much stronger than year ago and much stronger than average, says Canadian market analyst Kevin Grier in his bi-weekly summary of the U.S. market. The June live cattle futures market undertone remains very solid. The fed cattle basis is wide but is unlikely to play a role in marketing decisions. Calf and yearling prices remain on an uptrend. The boxed beef cutouts continue to soar and remain on a seasonal uptrend. Packer margins are deep red, notes Grier. The total slaughter four-week average ending May 17 was down 8% on last year. The fed cattle kill four-week average ending May 3 (latest) versus 2024 was down 6%. The non-fed kill four-week average ending May 3 (latest) was down 15%. June fed cattle availability is likely to be steady to lower compared to last year. Packer negotiated cash and dressed inventories are tight. Packers are more comfortable with contracts than last year and might be pulling more formula cattle than normal, he says.
DEMAND IS AT RECORD LEVELS
DEMAND for U.S. red meat is at record levels in many international markets, even in the face of heightened competition. This was the message from U.S. Meat Export Federation President and CEO Dan Halstrom to USMEF’s spring conference in Fort Worth, Texas. A lot of times the best defense is a strong offense, and in many key markets USMEF is doing both, said Halstrom. It is defending where necessary, especially against newcomers like Brazil, which has recently gained greater access in several key regions. But at the same time, USMEF is aggressively pursuing new opportunities in both established and emerging markets, he said.
As an example, Halstrom pointed to the recent expansion of USMEF’s staff presence, with new representation in West Africa and Malaysia, and an additional staff member in Indonesia. He also shared video highlights from USMEF’s recent two-day trade seminar in Accra, Ghana, which attracted buyers from 12 African nations. Halstrom concluded by comparing USMEF’s approach to international marketing to the insights shared recently at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ meeting. He noted that Berkshire’s leadership views holdings in markets such as Japan, for example, as investments of 50 years or more, focusing on company fundamentals rather than being distracted by short-term issues that dominate headlines, he said.
That is really what USMEF also does, focusing on the long-term vision of building demand in targeted export markets, said Halstrom. Global populations are growing and the middle class is expanding but it’s really about the spending power. USMEF is not focused on all consumers. It is focused on the top tiers in these markets and those top tiers want and can pay for high-quality proteins. Despite there being a lot of noise about international trade, USMEF is going to keep its eye on the ball and remain focused on the long term, he said. USMEF Chair Steve Hanson, a rancher, cattle feeder and grain farmer from southwestern Nebraska, welcomed members to the conference with an optimistic message, despite heightened uncertainty in the trade policy arena. While the industry is obviously facing many challenges, it’s also a very exciting time to be in the red meat business. Its products are better than ever and international demand is outstanding, he said.