CASH live cattle prices surged the week before last, their fourth largest week-to-week increase this century. But it seemed the advance wasn’t quite done last week, as prices added another $1 per cwt live in most places. The 5-area prices the prior week averaged $244.96 per cwt live or $384.59 dressed. These were up $9.27 per cwt and $12.89 per cwt, respectively, from the week before. The only cash trade through last Wednesday was in Texas, where 2440 head sold at $246 per cwt live. A light trade occurred in all regions Thursday morning at $244-246 per cwt live. Meanwhile, fed cattle graded a record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the sixth week in a row. For the week ended March 28, cattle graded 14.71% Prime and 73.42% Choice. The total of 88.13% just exceeded the prior week’s record of 88.12%.
Meanwhile, workers at JBS’s beef processing plant in Greeley, Col., returned to work last Tuesday, ending a three-week strike. The move came without any new agreement or change to JBS’s original offer. UFCW Local 7 President Kim Cordova said JBS and the union were to meet last Thursday and Friday to resume contract talks. The union represents nearly 3800 workers at the plant. It seems the strike had minimal impact on daily and weekly slaughter levels, which have been much reduced anyway versus a year ago. The harvest level for last week was projected at 532-535,000 head. This level of activity may have been negatively impacted as last week progressed due to deterioration in packer margins, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Margins last Thursday morning were calculated to be $190.15 per head in the red.
Beef Cutouts Also Decline
Most of the rapid deterioration in margins was due to the surge in live cattle prices. But the beef cutouts also declined the week before last and last week. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $394.86 per cwt, down $2.63 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $391.55 per cwt, down $3.24 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 26.7% of the total volume of 6480 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Formula sales accounted for 55.7%, forward sales accounted for 17.6% and export sales accounted for 14.1%. The daily Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $6.69 per cwt to $381.09 per cwt. One feature last week was that the Select cutout each of the first four days was premium to the Choice cutout. Meanwhile, the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (mostly cow beef) set a new all-time record for the third week in a row. The price in the week ended April 4 averaged $448.32 per cwt, up from the prior record the previous week of $441.61 per cwt.
Meanwhile, the April 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total was the lowest total for the month since 2020. It is estimated near 99% of a year earlier and slightly larger than a month earlier but likely marks the peak monthly inventory for this year and perhaps longer, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. Feedlot inventories remain much larger than might be anticipated considering the continued slide in placements, which declined nearly 950,000 head during the last half of 2025 and another estimated 150,000 head during the first quarter of 2026. Still, the feedlot inventory is only about 80,000 head smaller than last year, he says. Incentives remain in place to sustain the slow inventory turnover, accentuated by the recent narrow futures price spreads and weak basis. They encouraged rolling hedges forward, further tempering spot fed cattle availability. Still, fed cattle supplies are expected to trend seasonally higher into the spring but the reduced slaughter capacity appears more than sufficient to accommodate those larger fed cattle supplies, he says.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 99.9%, placed 94.5%, marketed 92.1%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 99.7%, placed 93.3%, marketed 93.5%; Caleb Hurst, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 99.6%, placed 92.8%, marketed 93.7%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 99.6%, placed 92.6%, marketed 93.6%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 99%, placed 93%, marketed 95%
COF TOTAL IS LOWEST SINCE 2020
LOW feedlot placements in March but even lower marketings (record low for the month) meant the April 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total was the lowest total for the month since 2020. The average forecast by CBW’s analysts was 99.7% of a year ago. It was forecast to be down 2% from the previous five-year average. Front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on April 1 were estimated to be record high at 3.649M head, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. This is 379,000 head or 11.6% above the previous year and 27.5% above the previous five-year average, a total of 786,000 higher than the average. Steer and heifer carcass weights continue to confirm a front-end loaded fed cattle supply. Seasonally, carcass weights tend to bottom during the second half of June, he says.
The category of cattle on feed 150 plus days for April 1 this year will post an all-time high level for any month, any year, says Wilson. In searching for a positive, the drop from April to May in the projected numbers for this category is 240,000 head. The same period last year saw a drop of 85,000 head and the five-year average decline is 16,000 head. However, the May1 number projects to still be the second highest ever. The difficulty catching up can be seen in August projections. While this currently sets as the low number for the summer, 2026 will be the first time that the August numbers in this category exceed 3M head, he says.
March placements are projected near 93% of last year’s modest volume, which is seasonally larger than a month earlier but 14% below the 2016-19 average, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. Aside from the covid-related plunge in 2020, March placements likely are record small. Last year’s March placements were boosted by some weather-delayed placements from the previous month, so comparisons are being made against last year’s slightly higher bar. Following the large decline in 2025 placements and subsequent carryover into 2026, the decline in January-March placements is modest at around a 3% decline. A few more cattle on wheat and small grains pasture at the beginning of the year may have augmented February/March placements slightly, he says.
A number of large wildfires (notably in western Nebraska) highlighted the pervasive soil dryness/drought conditions in significant portions of the Great Plains and western U.S., says Sands. This may have altered some cow herd growth plans and pushed a few more cattle toward the feedyard. The initiation of the Iranian hostilities at the end of February, resulting in sharply higher energy values and corn prices, also elevated concerns that resulting slower economic growth may negatively impact meat and beef demand. The resulting plunge in cattle futures and strong basis, along with the ill-fated labor disruption at JBS-Greeley, weighed on fed cattle prices and pressured the feeder market lower as well, likely dampening placement interest from cattle feeders. Still, stiff competition for limited feeder supplies amid excess feeding capacity, backgrounding programs and modest herd rebuilding efforts likely will keep a lid on placements in the months ahead, he says.
March marketings are projected near 95% of last year and 10% below the 2016-19 average and the smallest since 2015, says Sands. However, marketings were augmented by one additional business day during the month. Adjusted for that difference, the marketing pace was about 9% below a year earlier and record low for the month. Still, significantly fewer fed cattle imports from Canada during March suggests movement out of feedyards was slightly larger than fed slaughter rates suggest. The slow marketing pace maintains the elevated inventory of cattle on feed more than 150 days. Although record high for April 1, the year-over-year increase is more modest than recent months. But it remains a significant contributor to record heavy carcass weights and favorable grading percentages, he says.
EXPORTS REVEAL STRONG PER HEAD VALUE
U.S. beef and pork exports in February were mixed in volume terms versus a year earlier but both showed strong per head value. February pork exports were slightly higher year-over-year, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). While beef exports trended lower, due in large part to continued lack of access to China, shipments of beef variety meat posted another strong increase, says USMEF. February was a robust month for per head export value, with pork exports equating to more than $67 per head slaughtered and beef exports reaching nearly $423 per head of fed slaughter, it says.
February pork exports totaled 242,511 metric tons (mt), up 1% from a year ago, with export value also edging 1% higher to $678.8M, says USMEF. While leading market Mexico posted another excellent performance in February, shipments to Japan increased significantly from last year’s low total and exports also trended higher year-over-year to South Korea, Central America, the Dominican Republic and Taiwan.
It is gratifying to see demand for U.S. pork continue to expand in Western Hemisphere markets, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. But the rebound in Japan really stands out to him, given the strong economic headwinds and intense competition in this important market. To build on this recent momentum in Japan, it is critical that USMEF continues to differentiate U.S. pork and demonstrate its advantages to Japanese importers and consumers, he says. For January through February, total U.S. pork exports were 2% above last year’s pace in both volume (493,372 mt) and value ($1.37 billion). Export value is slightly ahead of the record pace established in 2024.
February beef exports totaled 85,066 mt, down 13% year-over-year, while value fell 10% to $722.7, says USMEF. Much of this gap was due to China’s lockout of U.S. beef, although February shipments were also below last year to South Korea, Japan and Canada. Exports increased year-over-year to Mexico, Taiwan, the Caribbean and South America, while demand was steady in the Middle East and Central America. Excluding China, February exports were 4% higher in value and just 1% below last year’s volume.
Beef Variety Meats Trend Higher
The February totals included 24,081 mt of beef variety meat, up 12% from a year ago, while the value of these shipments soared 40% to $106M, says USMEF. Beef variety meat exports continue to trend higher, especially on the value side, and that makes them such an important contribution to the value of every animal, says Halstrom. Where U.S. beef has access, muscle cut demand has held up well and provides a great complement to the robust domestic market. But for beef variety meats, export markets are really the whole ball game, so it’s great to see these products achieve broad-based growth, he says.
Through the first two months of 2026, beef and beef variety meat exports were 12% below last year’s pace in volume (177,624 mt) and 6% lower in value ($1.5 billion). Excluding China from these results, exports increased 2% to 175,915 mt, while value was 10% higher at $1.49 billion. January-February exports of beef variety meat increased 9% from a year ago to 51,592 mt, while export value climbed 43% to $232M.
As noted above, beef variety meat exports have strengthened in recent months, reaching a monthly value record in December ($122M) and breaking that record in January ($126M), says USMEF. February variety meat exports were also robust, climbing 12% from a year ago to 24,081 mt, while value surged 40% to $106M. While much of this growth was driven by tongues and skirts to Japan, shipments also increased to Korea, South Africa, Peru, Colombia and Vietnam. Exports to Mexico were steady in volume but increased 13% in value.
Total February beef exports to Mexico edged 2% higher year-over-year in volume (17,590 mt), while value increased 11% to $124.3M. Through February, shipments to Mexico increased 12% in value ($248.8M) despite a 2% decline in volume (36,426 mt), says USMEF. CBW reports further on February beef exports on the next page.
Beef Volumes Increase To Taiwan
Beef exports to Taiwan reached 4200 mt in February, up 5% from a year ago, although value fell 9% to $44.4M, says USMEF. Through February, shipments to Taiwan climbed 38% to 9,831 mt, while value increased 23% to $107.4M. As previously noted, the U.S. has reached a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan that will eliminate tariffs on U.S. beef and reduce technical barriers but implementation is pending.
Despite a strong increase in variety meat demand, total January-February beef exports to Japan were 3% below last year in both volume (37,087 mt) and value ($275.3M), says USMEF. Following a strong January performance, beef exports to Korea took a step back in February, falling 14% in volume (16,032 mt) and 16% in value ($151.1M). Through February, shipments to Korea were 5% lower in both volume (35,513 mt) and value ($343.7M). Led by surging demand in the Dominican Republic and robust growth in the Bahamas and Netherlands Antilles, February beef exports to the Caribbean increased 8% to 2758 mt, while value soared 29% to $33.8M. January-February exports to the region were 8% higher in volume (5720 mt) and up 30% in value ($65.9m).
February beef exports to South America reached 1758 mt, up 17% from a year ago, with value surging 62% to $15.2M. Through February, beef exports to South America increased 15% to 3312 mt, valued at $27.6M (up 43%). The vast majority of U.S. red meat exports to South America are to free trade agreement partners Colombia, Peru and Chile. But through a reciprocal trade agreement announced in March but not yet implemented, Ecuador could also develop into a significant destination for U.S. beef and pork, says USMEF. Beef exports to Central America were steady in volume in February at 1928 mt, while export value climbed 25% to $21.2M. January-February exports followed a similar trend, climbing 23% from a year ago in value ($40.3M) despite a 1% decline in volume (3838 mt). In addition to leading market Guatemala, value growth was led by Costa Rica and Panama.
Australian Exports Hit Second Highest Monthly Total
Australia’s March beef exports meanwhile hit their second highest monthly level on record, driven by continued strong demand out of the U.S. and China. Total volume to all export destinations last month reached 149,973 mt, falling just short of the previous record slightly above 150,000 mt. The result has been underpinned by high rates of weekly national slaughter since late February, including some of the biggest production weeks seen since the 2019-20 drought turnoff period, says Beef Central. March grain-fed beef exports were the highest month on record, hitting 45,982 mt, marginally higher than December last year.
For the January-March first quarter, export volume hit 365,199 mt. That’s easily an all-time first quarter record, beating last year’s equivalent (in itself the previous record) by 17%, says Beef Central. This was achieved despite some significant processing disruptions due to flooding and wet weather in Queensland, especially during February.
Two key customer countries drove the near record March result, although there were good gains in some other markets, says Beef Central. Once again, insatiable demand out of the U.S., where the national beef herd continues to hover around 70 years lows, drove the March results. U.S. ports during March took 42,043 mt of chilled and frozen Australian beef, up about 10,000 mt or 30% on the same month last year. While still high in a historical sense, the March volume was still well below the 2015 era when Australia was killing huge numbers of cows during a drought, briefly pushing monthly exports to the U.S. above 47,000 mt. Exports to China last month were well below volumes predicted by some observers, anticipating a frantic scramble before Australia fills its 2026 China quota of 205,000 mt. Last month’s volume at 32,907 mt was still the third highest month on record but predictions of more than 40,000 mt were well wide of the mark, says Beef Central.