CASH live cattle prices soar to new highs, reflecting still tight supplies of market-ready cattle and packers’ need to satisfy growing beef demand as the grilling season begins. The 5-area fed steer price the week before last averaged $216.32 per cwt live, up $4.69 per cwt from the prior week’s $211.63 per cwt, which was the previous record. The price was 17.5% higher than the price the same week last year. Dressed prices averaged a new record high of $341.42 per cwt, up $4.61 per cwt from the prior week’s $336.73 per cwt. The price surpassed the previous record of $338.32 per cwt set the week ended March 30 and was up 16.0% on the same week last year. Last Wednesday saw an active trade at higher prices again. Prices up north averaged $218-225 per cwt live or $340-350 per cwt dressed. Prices down south averaged close to $218 per cwt live.
Steer and heifer carcass weights in the latest reported week ended April 19 were flat with the week before but remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 946 lbs, flat with the week before but up 27 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 873 lbs, up 1 lb from the week before and up 21 lbs on the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 878 lbs, up 1 lb from the week before and up 29 lbs on the same week last year. This was the equivalent of adding 19,730 head to that week’s slaughter total of 577,626 head, says HedgersEdge.com.
Beef Cutout Values Increase
Boxed beef cutout values meanwhile rose sharply the first two days of last week but then fell back. The week before last saw the national comprehensive boxed beef cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) average $332.92 per cwt, up from $332.08 per cwt in the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $333.08 per cwt, up from $331.16 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 28.7% of the total volume of 6531 loads, formula sales accounted for 57.7%, forward sales accounted for 13.6% and export sales accounted for 12.5%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $6.26 per cwt to $342.74 per cwt.
USDA WANTS MEXICO TO ACT
USDA issues an ultimatum to Mexico to take immediate action to combat a rapidly spreading livestock parasite or face a sweeping shutdown of live animal imports into the U.S. In a letter sent on April 26 and published to social media, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins warned her Mexican counterpart that unless Mexico moves decisively to eliminate bureaucratic barriers and intensify eradication efforts against the New World screwworm, the U.S. will restrict imports of cattle, bison, and equine animals from Mexico beginning Wednesday, April 30. It was unclear Thursday whether USDA carried its threat.
Mexico is the largest supplier of imported cattle to the U.S, sending over 1.2M head in 2024. But the trade diminished dramatically last November when the U.S. halted Mexican cattle and bison imports after a detection of New World screwworm in southern Mexico. The ban was lifted in early February after Mexico implemented a new pre-clearance inspection and treatment protocol. However, in her letter, Secretary Rollins said the outbreak in southern Mexico continues to expand, which she blames on Mexican aviation authorities placing restrictions on USDA flights and inhibiting control efforts.
USMEF CALCULATES LOSS OF CHINA MARKET
LOSING the Chinese market for U.S. beef and pork products for a full year could cost the industry $5 billion. This calculation comes from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) in its weekly report. Erin Borror, USMEF vp of economic analysis, confirmed in the report that the trade conflict has resulted in a stoppage of beef and pork exports shipped from the U.S to China. Retaliatory duties imposed by China in response to U.S. reciprocal tariffs have caused duty rates on U.S. pork and pork variety meats to reach 172%, with a tariff rate of 147% on U.S. beef and variety meats. According to multiple reports, USDA data shows that China has cancelled 12,000 metric tons of U.S. pork orders.
Finding replacement trading partners is challenging because of specific requirements for U.S. products shipped to China, said Borror. There’s a mad scramble to try to find new homes for product that is in the pipeline that was produced for China. For China, the U.S. has special China labeling. It is a ractopamine-free product with a China label both on the bag and the box. So it is costly production-specific for China and thus is difficult to reroute or find a new home for the product. The U.S. pork industry losses, specifically for a variety of meats, total about $8 to $10 per head or about a $1 billion for the year. China is by far the largest buyer of pork feet, head, stomachs and intestines, and it is taking a tremendous volume at higher prices than any other customer can pay, said Borror.
China historically buys significant quantities of specific items at a premium that other trading partners aren’t willing to pay, said Borror. On the beef side, China is a top customer for short plates, short ribs, chuck short ribs, rib fingers, tiger tails and honeycomb. They are all very China-specific products. The absence of shipments for these products to China is estimated to equate to a loss of up to $165 per head for the industry, representing about $4 billion in losses per year. An additional hurdle to trade with China unrelated to tariffs is its failure to renew registrations for 400 U.S. beef facilities to export products, says USMEF. Registrations for most U.S. pork facilities were renewed in March but China has not yet renewed nine establishment registrations that expired April 20, it says.
Clearer Export Trends Emerge
Almost a month after President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on goods sold into the U.S., clearer export beef trade trends are now starting to emerge, writes Jon Condon of Australia’s Beef Central. Despite the fact that Australia runs a large trade deficit with the U.S., Australian beef was hit with a 10% import duty along with a host of other bottom-tier countries. The tariff war that has arisen between the U.S. and China has now made U.S. beef exports to China prohibitive, facing tariffs of 145%. The result has been a sudden spike in demand in China for Australian beef, although this in itself carries another considerable risk, says Condon.
Demand in the U.S. for Australian beef, especially for frozen trimmings used for hamburgers and tacos, remains quite modest, trade sources told Condon last week, as the market continues to wait for clearer direction. Soon after the tariffs were imposed on April 4, it was a real Mexican standoff between Australian exporters and U.S. importers, one large exporter told Condon. That has now eased a little but trade is still very quiet. While prices have risen, volume has not lifted. He is certainly not getting inundated with bids and inquiry out of the U.S., said the exporter.
The Urner Barry Yellow Sheet U.S. daily price reporting guide last week largely showed imported prices that were around the previous (pre-tariff) prices, plus 10%, one trader said last Tuesday. Urner Barry prices are typically quoted four to six weeks forward, typical of the export trade. The Yellow Sheet early last week reported $4.32 per lb for Australian 90CL frozen manufacturing beef, FOB. Deducting ten cents per lb to clear the container, palletize the product and put it on a truck, and then deducting another ten cents per lb for the U.S. reciprocal tariff takes the figure to $3.82 per lb, which was pretty much the price before the tariff was introduced, the trader told Condon. Essentially, this means the Yellow Sheet price reported last week is the old (pre-tariff) price plus 10%, meaning that end users in the U.S. market are picking up the entire cost of the tariff. It is all being passed through, he said.
Product In Limbo Won’t Pay Tariff
The current ‘product in limbo’ position means that some Australian beef on the water to the U.S. carrying a bill of lading prior to May 10 can still arrive in a U.S. port by a May 24 deadline without paying the tariff, says Condon. Once that product clears however, all Australian beef will effectively be 10% more expensive. At the same time as that cost burden arrives for U.S. importers, U.S. domestic beef kills continue to slump, as the national herd has hit 70-year lows. Secondary to that, Trump’s illegal immigrant crackdown is putting additional labor stress on some U.S. packers and feedlots, making operations increasingly difficult, Condon was told.
Trump’s tariff chaos has clearly impacted U.S. consumer and business market confidence, says Condon. Some assessments now put confidence levels last seen in the depths of the COVID era and the global financial crisis. This is being reflected in reduced foodservice activity and consumer spending on eating out, with consumers trading down from more expensive beef cuts to grinding beef, or worse still, exiting beef for cheaper chicken or pork. All this means that the U.S. beef demand patterns that existed before the tariffs came in are not the same as they are today, one Australian exporter said last Tuesday. It makes it harder to measure apples with apples but he would expect to see U.S. inquiry grow in the next couple of weeks as stocks run low, he said.
In contrast to the U.S. market conditions, demand for Australian beef in China has grown substantially over the past fortnight, as the impact of the U.S.-China tariff war takes hold, says Condon. One of Australia’s largest beef exporters said they have seen lots of diversion of product away from the U.S. to customers in China. To a degree, it has also happened into Japan and Korea. The limiting factor for greater Australian exports to China is the hormone growth promotant-free requirement, meaning that direct displacement will be hard to achieve.
Product type will also be a factor, says Condon. U.S. exports to China have historically been USDA Choice and Prime, marbling score 3-5 type product. Australia’s primary grain-fed beef produced in volume (100-day grain-fed) does not have like-for-like substitutability with product like this. Nor is Australia’s higher quality grain-fed produced in the same volume, says Condon. Some Chinese customers could move to Australian Wagyu or long-fed Angus beef but it is a lot more expensive, and it is not produced in anything like the volume of generic 100-day fed beef, a trader told Condon.
China Cannot Easily Substitute
There is no simple way for China to substitute Australian for U.S. grain-fed, despite some of the recent mainstream media coverage suggesting otherwise, says Condon. Having said that, Chinese customers seeking better quality imported beef have in the past couple of weeks been looking to buy any Australian product that can mimic what they were buying previously from the U.S., says Condon. At the same time, a lot more Brazilian beef (mostly frozen manufacturing product) that was previously heading into the U.S. is now also being diverted into the Chinese market for the same tariff reasons. Brazil now faces a total tariff of 36.5% into the U.S., versus 12% into China, says Condon.
What is now looming as a key concern for Australia’s growing volumes heading to China is the risk of early triggering of China’s safeguard market protection mechanism this year, says Condon. The trigger level last year of 202,000 metric tons was reached in mid-September, lifting the tariff on Australian beef to 12% for the remainder of the calendar year. This year, with volume rising rapidly, the safeguard could trigger much sooner. Triggering the tariff would mean an Australian beef item costing A$15 per kilogram landed today would have to make A$16.80 per kg after the 12% tariff is added. If we get to the middle of May and Australia is selling June and July shipment beef to China, the trigger level could happen a lot sooner than we think, one exporter said.
Brazil does not supply China under a free trade agreement, says Condon. This mean it is not exposed to a safeguard mechanism but pays a 12% tariff all year. In the absence of U.S. beef exports into China last month, more U.S. product is now being diverted into Japan, South Korea and other markets. Like Australia, neither Japan nor Korea have applied retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including beef, says Condon.
LIVESTOCK LEADERS IDENTIFY KEY ISSUES
FORTY leaders from across the livestock industry identify what they call six critical areas for action at the Common Ground Summit on April 21-23 in Denver. Their shared mission, they say, is to safeguard rural communities, ensure America’s food independence and preserve a way of life central to the nation’s agricultural heritage. The leaders described the summit as a watershed moment for U.S. agriculture. Years of bridge-building culminated in this pivotal event, marking what participants described as a breakthrough for industry-wide collaboration. Attendees achieved unprecedented consensus on comprehensive policy priorities designed to fortify all segments of the livestock industry, said the leaders.
These priorities address urgent threats, including regulatory burdens, labor shortages, tax challenges and barriers to entry for the next generation of producers that jeopardize the sustainability of family operations and rural economies. Turk Stovall, a rancher and cattle feeder from Billings, Mt., who served as the summit’s moderator, highlighted the event’s importance. The power behind the Common Ground Summit was that these were real producers from across the country who represent a lot of different segments of the livestock industry, he said. This goes beyond any one organization. It’s all of us as cattle producers saying these are the things we really need and we really need them now, he said.
The three-day summit tackled a stark reality. America risks losing its capacity to feed itself independently, a position with profound implications for both national security and the agricultural sector. Through intensive dialogue, participants reached consensus on six critical areas for action. They included: Ag-Friendly Tax Policy: extend and enhance key provisions like transfer tax exemptions, step-up in basis, and accelerated depreciation to support agricultural families; Risk Management Tools: improve programs like Livestock Risk Protection to better serve producers; Access to Labor: streamline and expand H-2 programs to address labor shortages; Flexibility for Livestock Haulers: exempt livestock haulers from restrictive hours-of-service rules and the electronic logging device mandate; Support for Young and Emerging Producers: expand USDA loan programs, incentivize land transfers to younger producers and foster interest in agricultural careers; Innovation and Sustainability: champion technologies and programs that enhance livestock production efficiency and sustainability.
Kansas Rancher Applauds Moves
Barb Downey, a rancher from Wamego, Kan., who took part in the inaugural event, said she was pleasantly surprised that the leaders are setting aside differences and moving forward on actionable items that they can work towards together. You’ve got some really amazing people in this room and we’ve all adopted the attitude that we’re going to work on what we can agree on and get that done, she said.
That “we’re all in this together” attitude will be the key to success, said Nebraska farmer and rancher Greg Ibach He previously served as USDA’s Undersecretary of Agriculture for Marketing and Regulatory Programs and as the Director of the Nebraska Department of Agriculture. “We seem to have more divergence of opinion on how things should take place, even within the beef industry,” he said. “Bringing together members of different organizations that sometimes diverge on policy opinions and trying to find some uniformity, I think, will help us be more effective in Washington, D.C., if we can go back with a unified ask, at least on certain topics.”
The group and the industry as a whole must strike while the iron is hot and invites others to join the charge, said Stovall. As land goes out of production, as producers don’t come back to farms, at what point do we wake up in the morning and find out we can’t feed our country and it really becomes beyond a livestock industry issue, Stovall asked. It becomes a national security issue. Right now is the most important time for us to be talking about these things. The Common Ground Summit stands as a testament to the power of collaboration, charting a path forward for America’s livestock industry, he said.