CASH live cattle prices soar to new record highs again, to a level that have far exceeded the most optimistic forecasts at the start of the year. They set a new record high for the eighth week in a row the week before last and looked certain to do the same last week. The 5-area regional trade the week before last saw steers average $236.62 per cwt live or $380.34 per cwt dressed. These were up $6.68 per cwt and $12.28 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. These were easily the largest week-to-week prices increases of the year. Trade was light through last Wednesday both up north and down south, with only 5046 head reported sold. Prices up north were $244 per cwt live in Nebraska and $241-242 per cwt live or $382 per cwt dressed in Iowa. Prices down south averaged around $235 per cwt live.
Steer carcass weights in the latest reported week ended May 31 declined from the prior week while heifer weights were unchanged. Both remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 940 lbs, down 4 lbs from the week before but up 16 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 865 lbs, up 23 lbs on the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 870 lbs, down 2 lbs from the week before but up 19 lbs on the same week last year. This was the equivalent of adding 10,885 head to that week’s slaughter total of 487,605 head, says HedgersEdge.com. Also of note is that cattle continue to grade a high percentage of Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage was 84.68% in the latest reported week ended May 31.
Cutout Has Biggest Leap Of Year
The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $360.88 per cwt, up $0.56 per cwt on the prior week. Formula-priced sales accounted for 58.0% of the total volume of 6832 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 27.0%, forward sales accounted for 15.0% and export sales accounted for 10.1%. Also of note that week was that the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) averaged a new record high of $384.62 per cwt. This beat the previous record of $383.41 per cwt set the week before. Daily cutout values increased significantly last week. The Choice cutout increased by $11.64 per cwt the first four days to $376.72 per cwt while the Select cutout increased by $6.34 per cwt to $363.07 per cwt.
Consumer beef demand has been positive to date, supported by rising employment levels and real income increases, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. Retail beef prices scored a modest reprieve last month as the Choice and All Fresh prices retreated by $0.02 per lb and $0.09 per lb, respectively. But the real test for consumer demand lies ahead when expected and necessary additional advances in retail beef prices will occur. Prices are expected to advance at least through the month of July, which is directly into a period normally posting seasonal weakness in beef demand. Seasonally, during the month of July, beef demand generally declines by approximately 3.1% from June, he says.
Meanwhile, Sustainable Beef officially began operations May 28 at its $325M beef processing facility in North Platte, Neb. The plant plans to ramp up gradually to 1500 head per day or 400,000 head per year and employ 850 people by the end of this year. CEO David Briggs has emphasized the importance of Walmart’s role in securing a built-in customer base for the plant’s product. Walmart will buy most of the beef produced by the plant, which will go to Walmart stores in the central U.S. Walmart has a minority stake in Sustainable Beef.
CHINA BARRIERS HURT BEEF EXPORTS
CHINA’S barriers to U.S. beef exports, as expected, cause shipments to that market to fall 70% in April compared to a year earlier. Due in part to a sharp decline in shipments to China, April exports of both U.S. beef and pork trended lower than a year ago, says the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). China’s retaliatory duties are a major headwind for both U.S. beef and pork, while beef exporters face an additional obstacle. China has failed to renew establishment registrations for U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, the majority of which expired in mid-March, says USMEF.
April beef exports totaled 100,659 metric tons (mt), down 10% from a year ago, while value fell 8% to $824.5M, says USMEF. Exports to China declined nearly 70% and shipments also trended lower to Mexico, Taiwan and the Middle East. These results were partially offset by larger exports to South Korea, Japan and Central and South America. For January through April, beef exports were 3% below last year’s pace at 411,027 mt. Export value was down just 1% to $3.35 billion.
USMEF expected beef shipments to China to hit a wall in April, due to the one-two punch of higher tariffs and expired plant registrations, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. USMEF is hopeful that these issues will be resolved soon and is encouraged by the latest developments on trade negotiations with China. In the meantime, USMEF remains committed to market diversification and it has accelerated efforts to develop alternative destinations for cuts and variety meat items normally shipped to China, he says. China’s total duties on U.S. beef peaked in April at 147%. The rate was lowered to 32% on May 14 when the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary de-escalation to allow for further negotiations. Product that shipped prior to April 10 was allowed to clear without the additional 125%, provided it arrived by May 13. President Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on June 5 and said further talks will be held soon.
Pork Exports Also Fell Sharply
April pork exports totaled 237,250 mt, down 15% from a year ago and the lowest in ten months, says USMEF. Export value fell 13% to $675.3M. Exports to China, which are mainly pork variety meats, declined 35% from a year ago. Shipments were also lower year-over-year to leading market Mexico and to Japan and Canada. But April was another outstanding month for pork exports to Colombia and Central America, which are both on a record pace. For January through April, pork exports were 5% below last year’s record pace at 991,738 mt, while value fell 4% to $2.78 billion.
China has been renewing registrations for U.S. pork establishments but retaliatory duties remain a significant barrier, says Halstrom. China’s total duties on U.S. pork and pork variety meats peaked in April at 172%. The rate was lowered to 57% on May 14. As with beef, product that shipped prior to April 10 and arrived by May 13 was allowed to clear without the additional 125%. Exports to Mexico cooled in April but the year-over-year comparison was with a record performance in April 2024. Year-to-date shipments to Mexico are fairly steady with last year’s record pace and demand elsewhere in Latin America is also very robust, he says.
April beef exports to leading value market South Korea totaled 23,460 mt, up 18% from a year ago, says USMEF. Export value was $216.4M, up 16% and the largest since 2023. These results pushed January-April exports 3% above last year’s pace at 81,638 mt, valued at $784.8 million (up 6%). The June 3 presidential election is expected to restore some level of economic stability in Korea, which has dealt with political turmoil since former president Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached in December. The trade impasse with China has created some new opportunities for U.S. beef in Korea, says USMEF. For example, greater availability of U.S. short plates opened the door for additional promotions in the retail sector. April beef exports to China totaled 5326 mt, down 68% from a year ago. Export value fell 69% to $44.4M. These results pushed January-April exports to China 16% below last year’s pace in volume (50,020 mt) and 15% lower in value ($434.8M). This downward trend will continue until China restores eligibility for all registered U.S. plants. CBW reports further on U.S. beef exports on the next page.
Japan Remains Largest Volume Market
Japan maintained its position in April as the largest volume destination for U.S. beef as exports increased 6% from a year ago to 22,375 mt, valued at $165.3M (up 1.5%), says USMEF. For January through April, exports to Japan were 2% below last year’s pace in both volume (82,221 mt) and value ($617M). After a strong performance in March, beef exports to Taiwan took a step back in April at 4492 mt, down 17% from a year ago, while value fell 8% to $54M. January-April exports to Taiwan increased 5% in value ($201.7M) despite a 5% decline in volume (16,704 mt).
April beef exports to Mexico totaled 17,676 mt, up slightly from March but down 16% from the large year ago volume, says USMEF. Export value was $107.3M, down slightly from March and 11% lower year-over-year. Mexico’s domestic slaughter increased in the first fourth months of the year, as its exports of feeder cattle to the U.S. have been interrupted by the spread of New World screwworm. For January through April, beef exports to Mexico were down 6% from a year ago in volume (72,537 mt) and were 3% lower in value at $784.8M.
Robust demand in Guatemala fueled another excellent month for U.S. beef exports to Central America, says USMEF. They increased 18% from a year ago to 2113 mt, topping 2000 mt for the second consecutive month. This included 1065 mt for Guatemala, the second largest volume on record. April export value for the region soared 53% to $18.2M. Through the first four months of 2025, exports to Central America increased 9% to 8131 mt, while value climbed 30% to $70.7M. Exports to both Guatemala and Panama are above the record pace established a year ago.
Exports To Colombia Continue Momentum
U.S. beef’s presence in Colombia continued to regain momentum in April, says USMEF. Exports climbed 128% from a year ago in volume to 447 mt, the highest since February 2024, and were valued at $4.6M, up 149% and the highest since September 2023. Exports to Colombia were interrupted last year due to restrictions related to highly pathogenic avian influenza in dairy cows. Full access was restored in September but the six-month absence from the market was a significant setback. With shipments also increasing to Chile and Peru, April exports to South America increased 41% to 1864 mt, valued at $15.2M (up 88%). This included 643 mt of chilled beef to Chile, the highest since 2022. While January-April export volume to South America was down 4% from a year ago at 6324 mt, value climbed an impressive 29% to $45.8M.
April beef exports equated to $396.71 per head of fed slaughter, down 5% from a year ago. The January-April per head average was still up 1% to $415.16. Exports accounted for 13.1% of total April production and 11.1% for muscle cuts only, down from 14.1% and 11.7%, respectively, a year ago. The January-April ratios were 13.6% of total production and 11.4% for muscle cuts, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, a year ago.
Meanwhile, Australia’s beef exports in May surged to their third highest volume level for any month, reaching 129,478 mt. The number was the largest May tonnage ever and meant that the three largest monthly shipment volumes on record have all been seen in the past 12 months. Only July and October last year showed larger in-month trade volumes, with October’s record reaching 130,048 mt. The 2025 year-to-date is at a record-setting pace. Short of some major climatic or market access disaster, it is setting the industry up for record-rivalling annual shipments by the end of December, says Beef Central. Shipments to all export markets for the January-May five month period reached 567,625 mt, up 15% on the same period last year.
The big question on everybody’s minds in latest trade data is how much impact the recent tariff wars, especially those between the U.S. and China, have had on Australia’s recent export beef performance, says Beef Central. The simple answer is ‘some’ but the full effect of 45% tariffs on U.S. beef into China is yet to be seen in coming months. The U.S. continues to bid away large chunks of Australia’s export beef production in the face of dwindling domestic supply. May exports to U.S. in May reached 38,431 mt, up 3% on the previous month and up 23% on May last year, says Beef Central. CBW reports further on U.S. beef imports in its next story.
BRAZIL TOPS AUSTRALIA AS U.S. SUPPLIER
BRAZIL for the first time surges past Australia as the largest supplier of imported beef to the U.S. This is another reflection of the rapidly tightening supply of domestic beef in the U.S. this year, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon. Brazil’s shipments in April reached 48,000 metric tons (mt), up from just 8000 mt in the same month last year. For the past four decades, Australia has been the principal supplier of imported beef into the U.S. market, at times surging past 400,000 mt per year. Last year’s tally fell just short of that at 395,000 mt.
An enormous spike in January was attributed to one factor, says Condon. Brazil exports to the U.S. under the 65,000 mt most favored nation (MFN) quota, meaning there was a rush in January to get tariff-free product into the country before the quota filled. Brazil in fact filled its entire 2025 MFN quota in just 17 days. It meant that for the final 11 months of 2025, all Brazilian beef entering the U.S. is exposed to an out-of-quota tariff of 26.4% as well as the U.S.’s new 10% reciprocal tariff. This means that all Brazilian beef hitting the market is exposed to a total tariff of 36.4pc. In contrast, Australia benefits from a 448,000 mt tariff-free quota with the U.S. for 2025, negotiated under the 2005 U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement. While there is a possibility that volume will be exceeded this year, it won’t be until the final month or two, at worst, says Condon.
Very little if any of the Brazilian beef is being seen in the U.S. retail segment, export trade sources told Condon. Nor do the large national hamburger chains like McDonald’s or Burger King use South American product, electing to source exclusively from Australia and New Zealand. However, there is a vast legion of smaller hamburger and other fast-food chains and value-added product manufacturers across the U.S. that are now happy to use Brazilian beef to rein in costs, says Condon.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 98.1%, placed 88.0%, marketed 89.34%; Kevin Coburn, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 99.5%, placed 96.6%, marketed 89.5%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 98.4%, placed 97.7%, marketed 90.5%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 99.3%, placed 95.6%, marketed 90.5%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 99.4%, placed 97.7%, marketed 90.5%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 99.4%, placed 95.8%, marketed 89.8%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 99%, placed 95%, marketed 90%
COF TOTAL MAY BE LOWEST SINCE 2017
THE June 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total was slightly lower than a year earlier but it might have been the smallest total for the date in eight years. One reason is that May placements were likely down 4-5% from last year. This in part reflects the new ban from May 11 on the importation of Mexican feeder cattle into the U.S. due to New World screwworm. May marketings were much lower as well, with estimates suggesting they were down 5% after taking one less slaughter day this year into account. The June 1 COF total is estimated to be 11.507M head, which would be the lowest June 1 total since 2017, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. It was down 0.7% from the prior year and was 183,000 head or 1.6% below the previous five-year average.
Front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on June 1 are estimated to be 3.0M head, says Gottschalk. This was 8.7% above the previous year and 9.2% above the previous five-year average, an increase of 253,000 head. Total COF numbers are estimated to move lower into October by 407,000 head. The previous five-year average seasonal decline from June to October is 441,000 head. Carcass weight data continues to confirm that fed cattle supplies remain front-end loaded, he says. While declining seasonally, weights remain at record high levels for the current time period. Cost of gain versus the selling price of fed cattle continues to provide the incentive to add additional pounds. This incentive is magnified when considering the replacement cost of feeder cattle and calves, he says.