CATTLE carcass weights soared to new record highs during the federal government shutdown, which had prevented publication of weekly weights until now. Data released last week showed that steer weights in the week ended November 1 averaged 983 lbs. This was up 7 lbs from the week before and up 25 lbs from the same week last year, according to HedgersEdge.com. Heifer weights averaged 887 lbs, up 1 lb and up 20 lbs, respectively. Overall weights averaged 892 lbs, up 7 lbs and up 24 lbs, respectively. The overall weight was the equivalent of adding 15,410 head to that week’s total slaughter of 557,322 head, says HedgersEdge.com. All weight categories appeared to set new record highs each week during October.
The record weights meant that total beef production that week was 496.0M lbs. The previously reported production was 485.4M lbs in the week ended September 27. So the decline so far this year in production has been far less than the decline in weekly cattle slaughter. Putting it another way, packers are producing a sizeable amount of beef each week despite much reduced slaughter levels.
However, the reduced production compared to last year and the upcoming holidays have not translated into higher boxed beef cutout values so far this month. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $375.03 per cwt, down $2.83 per cwt from the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $371.78, down $2.56 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $358.70 per cwt, down $0.21 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 59.2% of the total volume of 6372 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 28.7%, forward sales accounted for 12.1% and export sales accounted for 7.2%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $0.55 per cwt to $371.28 per cwt. Consumer attitudes towards maintaining a solid level of demand for beef is critical to maintaining any gains from current price levels, says Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com. Unfortunately, some consumers are scaling down or eliminating their beef purchases, seeking lower priced beef cuts or alternative meats. Competition for the consumers’ dollars will likely only intensify, he says.
Live Cattle Prices Also Decline
Cash live cattle prices also declined the week before last and fell more sharply last week. They averaged $225.06 per cwt live or $350.94 per cwt dressed. These were down $3.64 per cwt and $7.39 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. Prices last week were expected to be steady-lower, as packers’ needs were reduced due to the holiday-shortened production schedule this week. But prices fell in all regions. Trade was light through last Wednesday, with 724 head selling on Tuesday in Iowa at $220 per cwt live. Wednesday saw a fairly active trade up north, with prices at $217-220 per cwt live or an average $344 per cwt dressed. Prices down south averaged $222-224 per cwt live.
Meanwhile, livestock auction markets remain the option of choice for beef producers, according to a new survey. Nearly 80% of the 2025 Farm Journal State of the Beef Industry survey respondents said they use an auction market as a marketing tool. Just over 50% use off farm or private treaty sales and 46% sell at least some beef direct to the consumer. Livestock auction markets offer quick and easy access, with decision-making that doesn’t have to be made until a day or two before you go to sale, says Ken Odde a commercial cattleman from South Dakota. In the industry we’ve had a trend towards more video auction sales but that’s largely a function of herd size. About 80% of the calves that sell in the U.S. sell through livestock auction markets, he says.
JBS HAS BEEF NORTH AMERICA LOSS
JBS Beef North America delivered record net sales in its third quarter, supported by robust beef demand in the U.S. But this was not enough to stave off more losses. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a negative $42M, versus a positive $177M a year earlier. Adjusted operating income was a negative $95M, versus a negative $6M last year. For nine months, adjusted EBITDA was a negative $424M, versus a positive $64M, while adjusted operating income was a negative $566M, versus a negative $64M last year. Sales for the quarter totaled $7.248 billion, up 14.8% from last year’s $6.313 billion. Sale for nine months totaled $20.475 billion, up 14.5% from last year’s $17.886 billion.
Despite cutout prices in the U.S. reaching all-time highs, domestic consumption remained resilient, said parent company JBS SA. The industry continues to navigate a challenging cattle cycle, with limited cattle availability for processing. With cattle supplies at historically low levels, live cattle prices have remained high, pressuring profitability, it said. U.S. beef margins will likely tighten in the fourth quarter from the prior period due to a persistent shortage of U.S. cattle, company executives said in a conference call. 2026 will still be challenging in terms of cattle supply in the U.S., with gradual improvements likely in 2027, they said.
In Brazil, where JBS owns multiple beef packing plants, herd size is expected to fall by 3% to 5% in 2026 after farmers sold more female cows for slaughter this year. Still, JBS Global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said this is not worrying because Brazil’s herd has grown, indicating that the expected decline will not necessarily hurt the company. Long-term agreements with farmers to source cattle in Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, and livestock management improvements, including richer diets and more cattle passing through feedlots, should help offset the predicted fall in Brazil’s cattle availability. The U.S. has less than a half of Brazil’s cattle herd and they produce more beef, said Tomazoni.
Most of Brazil’s cattle are still grass-fed, according to experts. That means the weight of the animal processed in the country is lower than in the U.S., yielding less beef per kill. According to Brazilian statistics agency IBGE, Brazil has 238M cattle. In the second quarter, the country processed more female cows than males for the first time since 1997, which may compromise calf production going forward. Private consultancies say determining the real size of Brazil’s herd is difficult. Some put Brazil’s herd size at approximately 190M head.
JBS Had Record Sales
JBS reported record high sales for its third quarter ended September 30. Net sales were up 13.4% year-on-year to $22.597 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was down 1% to $1.835 billion. Adjusted operating income was $1.251 billion, down 15%. Sales growth across all business units underscored the strength and diversification of JBS’s global multi-protein platform, Tomazoni told shareholders. Net income was down $112M or 16% on last year to $581M.
JBS, the largest beef processor in the U.S., is leaning into the pricier Wagyu cattle and expanding ground beef production to help cope with rising cattle costs, it says. JBS has been working to scrape as much meat as possible off each cattle carcass moving through its larger processing plants. At its smaller, regional plants, the company is expanding specialty programs to produce more grass-fed, organic and typically higher-end beef, said Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS’s U.S. business in an interview. JBS is accelerating those things because there is a demand. There are few ways to alleviate stress in the beef market in the short term, he said. But easing restrictions on Mexican cattle imports, which are currently barred from the U.S. due to a flesh-eating parasite, would help. Mexico sends about a million cattle across the border each year to Texas feedlots, where they are fattened for slaughter. But he cautioned that USDA has to wait to open the border until it is confident the parasite won’t spread to American herds. That’s the biggest impact that you can see in supply, he said. JBS’s results came a week after President Trump announced the Justice Department had launched an investigation into four meatpacking companies and whether they are engaging in collusion to drive up prices. JBS and other meatpackers haven’t commented on the probe.
JBS Australia Has Big Quarter
JBS Australia, whose operations include beef, lamb, pork, value-added smallgoods and aquaculture, had a big quarter. Net sales were up 22.9% to $2.192 billion and up 18.5% to $5.787 billion for the nine months. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $249M, up 42.7% on a year earlier. JBS Australia’s sales growth was primarily driven by higher prices during the period, both in the domestic and export markets, said Tomazoni. The beef segment was the main driver of Australia’s year-on-year improvement in profitability. Strong commercial dynamics, with higher prices and increased volumes in both domestic sales and exports, combined with continued operational efficiency gains, more than offset the 26% increase in cattle costs in the third quarter, versus last year. For comparison, JBS Brazil saw net sales in the quarter 27.7% higher than last year at $4.160 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was down 15.6% to $312M.
JBS USA Pork also delivered record quarterly sales, supported by a strong domestic market performance driven by solid demand and JBS’s ongoing efforts to expand its value-added and branded product portfolio, it said. Sales were $2.220 billion, up 8.7% on last year. For nine months, sales were $6.281 billion, up 2.7%. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $228M, up 8.2% on last year. Adjusted EBITDA for nine months was $584M, versus $639M in 2024.
Pilgrim’s Pride in the quarter had sales of $4.756 billion, up 3.8% on last year. Sales for nine months were $13.970 billion, up 3.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $633 M in the quarter, down 4.1%, and $1.853 billion for nine months, up 9.8%. Pilgrims’ Pride continued to strengthen key customer partnerships and invested across all regions to drive sales growth, enhance margins, and reduce volatility, said JBS. Throughout the quarter, chicken demand remained robust given its strong value proposition. In the U.S., fresh chicken maintained its solid performance, supported by portfolio diversification, quality and operational excellence, while Prepared Foods sales rose more than 25% year-on-year.
JBS meanwhile said that Mantiqueira USA, a wholly owned subsidiary of the joint venture between JBS and the founders of Mantiqueira Alimentos S.A., has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Hickman’s Egg Ranch. It is a leading egg producer based in the Mountain and West Coast regions and one of the top 20 egg companies in the U.S. The acquisition marks a significant milestone in Mantiqueira USA’s long-term strategy to build a strong and scalable presence in the U.S. egg market, said JBS.
DEMAND IS ROBUST DESPITE OBSTACLES.
ALTHOUGH the U.S. red meat industry faces significant obstacles in the international marketplace, demand remains robust in many key destinations where customers crave the quality and consistency of U.S. pork, beef and lamb. This was the prevailing message delivered by U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom at the USMEF Strategic Planning Conference. Pork exports are modestly below last year’s record pace but the gap stems mostly from a period early this year when China’s retaliatory tariffs escalated and the U.S. industry faced uncertainty about plant eligibility. Although export data is only available through July due to the government shutdown, pork shipments are on record pace to leading market Mexico, he said.
Beef exports have been hit harder by barriers in China, where U.S. beef not only faces retaliatory tariffs but also unwarranted plant de-listings and China’s failure to renew registrations for the vast majority of U.S. beef plants and cold storage facilities, said Halstrom. Fully reopening the world’s largest beef import market to U.S. beef will require several actions on China’s part and the lockout could extend into next year. This is obviously a political card that’s being held by China. One thing he is very confident in is that the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is well aware of the position, well aware of what’s involved and very well-informed. While ongoing negotiations with several trading partners may lead to new opportunities for U.S. red meat, especially in Southeast Asia, Halstrom stressed that protecting and defending existing free trade agreements is an urgent priority. Over the past decade, red meat exports to FTA partner countries have expanded by more than 30% and exports to these destinations now account for 76% of total shipments, he said.
TARIFF EXEMPTIONS WILL BOOST BEEF SUPPLY
PRESIDENT Trump has removed the 40% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef exports to the U.S., which should bring much-needed relief to beef supplies in the U.S. Trump last Thursday signed an Executive Order modifying tariff measures on products from Brazil, providing an exemption for beef. As a result, a 40% tariff is no longer applicable to Brazilian beef imports and this change is retroactive to November 13 at 12:01 AM EST. Trump just days before had exempted hundreds of agricultural products from his reciprocal tariffs but reduced Brazil’s beef tariff from 50% to only 40%.
Coffee, tea, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, tropical fruits, fruit juices, some fertilizers and food products used for religious purposes are among the 237 classifications and 11 categories of agricultural products now exempt from the administration’s reciprocal tariffs. The new tariff exemptions are effective retroactively, with goods entered into the U.S. for consumption (or withdrawn from a warehouse for consumption) as of November 13, qualifying for the reciprocal-tariff-free treatment. Refunds will be granted in accordance with normal customs procedures, said the White House.
Many agricultural products since April have been subject to a minimum 10% global tariff, or more in some countries’ cases, as part of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy. However, over the past few months, the administration has periodically adjusted the list of products that are subject to those tariffs. The White House said the agricultural exemptions result from the administration’s progress on various trade deals, including with countries that produce agricultural goods not commonly grown in the U.S. Trump’s action means Australian beef now bears no tariff at all on entry into the U.S.
Brazil still faces a 26.4% tariff imposed in mid-January after Brazil triggered the Safeguard provision on export volume to the U.S. under the most favored nation ‘Other Country’ quota. What has surprised many trade watchers this year has been the amount of Brazilian beef that continues to enter the U.S. market despite the massive tariff burden, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon. That reflects the shortage of domestic beef in the U.S. this year and inevitably again next year. Prior to the implementation of Trump’s 50% tariff in July, Brazil swept past Australia for the first time in history as the largest beef exporter to the U.S. That changed again rapidly when the tariff impact took effect, with much of the Brazilian product diverted to China.
CARGILL COMPLETES TEYS TAKEOVER
CARGILL completes its takeover of the Teys Australia beef processing and exporting business, almost 15 years after the two companies formed a historic 50-50 joint venture. Former managing director and board chair Brad Teys has left the business, with Andrew MacPherson the new CEO. The business name of Teys Australia will remain, with no reference to Cargill. Teys, the second largest beef processor in Australia, currently employs 5000 staff across its two primary operating companies: Teys Australia operates six beef processing plants and three feedlots. It also has two value-added and manufacturing facilities, plus the Teys USA sales and distribution business.
Meanwhile, Australian feedlot capacity has continued to surge over the past year, with at least ten large yards adding production scale in various ways. The industry’s quarterly feedlot survey has mapped the growth in industry capacity seen over the past three years, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon. The June quarter survey (September data will not be released until the middle of November) showed a new record for national feeding capacity at 1.706M head. This was a rise of 68,500 head or 4.2% on the same time last year, and 150,000 head or 10% higher than June 2023. This trend is showing little sign of slowing, as demand for grain-fed beef continues to expand. The global outlook for Australia’s beef exports over the next year or two has rarely, if ever, looked better, he says.