DAILY boxed beef prices finally respond to drastically reduced slaughter levels as fed beef packer margins remain heavily in the red. Meanwhile, fed cattle prices on a live and dressed basis put in all-time new record highs. This suggests that boxed beef prices will have to increase dramatically for packers to see positive margins anytime in the first quarter. The first eight weeks of the quarter saw margins average a negative $232.44 per head, according to HedgersEdge.com. The biggest loss so far this year was $341.42 per head the week before last. This is by far the largest loss that HedgersEdge.com has ever reported.
As noted, live cattle prices set new records the week before last. The 5-area prices averaged $246.91 per cwt live or $387.95 per cwt dressed. These were up $1.29 per cwt and $6.82 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. The live price beat the previous record of $245.62 per cwt set the prior week. The dressed price beat the previous record of $386.17 per cwt set the week of August 24 last year. Trade last week began Wednesday and developed further Thursday up north. Prices there averaged $243-244 per cwt live or $382-383 per cwt dressed.
The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $367.12 per cwt, up $0.25 per cwt on the week before. The Choice cutout averaged $365.62 per cwt, up 32 cents per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 27.5% of the total volume of 6294 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Formula sales accounted for 56.4%, forward sales accounted for 16.1% and export sales accounted for 10.2%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $11.19 per cwt to $377.89 per cwt while the Select cutout increased by $10.05 to $370.79 per cwt.
Demand Will Be Key Input
The demand factor will be a key input in determining price levels in 2026, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Restaurants dependent on beef, particularly the burger chains, continue to feel the pressure. McDonalds, Wendy’s, Burger King, Shake Shack and even In & Out Burger have all reported on the struggle to maintain affordability in pricing on an everyday basis. This is the driving momentum needed to maintain or expand their customer base. Economic uncertainty, currently arising from political confrontations, shutdowns, abrupt policy changes and the unforeseen impact these have, places further constraints on discretionary spending by the consumer, says Wilson.
Meanwhile, U.S. beef has officially re-entered the Australian market for the first time since 2003. At a gathering held by the U.S. Consulate in Sydney, guests enjoyed USDA Choice and Prime beef in various forms, from rib roast to southern barbecued rib meat and burgers. Suppliers included U.S. companies Tyson Foods and True West, a subsidiary of Agri Beef. The invited guests included people from the red meat trade, wholesalers, restaurateurs and food service industry personnel, influencers, government trade representatives and others, says Jon Condon of Beef Central. Consul general Jeremy Cornforth told the gathering that U.S. agricultural exports to Australia last year totaled $700M in value and the U.S. is looking to expand that partnership Jihae Yang, vp of the U.S. Meat Export Federation’s Asia Pacific region said it was a special moment to celebrate the long-awaited opening of the Australian market for U.S. beef imports. Australia has been one of America’s most important trading partners in beef. Last year the U.S. imported 480,000 metric tons of Australian beef worth about $3.6 billion. Almost 25% of Australian beef exports go to the U.S. market. Against this backdrop, the long awaited market access for U.S. beef into Australia is profoundly meaningful for the U.S., she said.
BEEF EXPORTS WERE DOWN SHARPLY IN 2025
GLOBAL demand for U.S. beef remained strong in 2025 but exports were down sharply from the prior year in volume and value because of the loss for much of the year of the Chinese market. December beef exports totaled 98,595 metric tons (mt), down 10.5% from a year ago. But they were the largest since April after access to China was largely lost in March. Export value was $809.2M, down 10% but also the highest since April. December shipments increased year-over-year to Taiwan, the Middle East, ASEAN, Caribbean, South America and Hong Kong, were steady to Japan and fell only modestly to South Korea, Mexico and Canada. But exports to China were minimal, offsetting gains elsewhere. When excluding China, December beef exports increased 4% year-over-year in volume and were 6% higher in value. For the full year, beef exports were down 12% from 2024 in volume (1.14M mt) and were 11% lower in value ($9.33 billion). But excluding China, 2025 exports were down 3% in volume and just 0.4% in value.
Global demand for U.S. beef, where it’s available to the millions of consumers who love it, has remained strong despite tight supplies and numerous headwinds, say Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). USMEF is encouraged by recent market access gains in some markets but implementation remains key and the industry looks forward to capitalizing on these wins. But for U.S. beef exports to hit on all cylinders and help maximize the value of every animal, it is imperative that access to China is fully restored, he says.
December beef export value equated to $393.13 per head of fed slaughter, down 11% from a year ago, says USMEF. The 2025 average was $391.94, down 6%. Exports accounted for 12.5% of total December beef production and 9.5% of beef muscle cuts, down from 14.6% and 12.3%, respectively, in December 2024. The full year ratios were 12.7% of total production and 10.4% for muscle cuts, each down just over one full percentage point from 2024. The lower per head average and the smaller ratios exported largely reflect the loss of the China market, says USMEF.
Pork Exports Post Second Highest Value
U.S. pork exports posted the second highest value and third largest volume on record in 2025, says USMEF. December pork exports totaled 257,846 mt, down 3.5% from the large volume posted a year ago but still the third largest of 2025. Export value was $746M, down 3% but also the third highest of the year. December shipments trended higher year-over-year to Mexico, reaching the second largest monthly volume and value on record. Exports also increased to South Korea, Japan, the Caribbean, ASEAN and Taiwan. But these results were offset by lower volumes to China, Canada, Central and South America and Oceania, says USMEF.
The December results pushed total 2025 pork exports to 2.94M mt, down 3% from the 2024 record but the third largest on record (also slightly below 2020). Export value was also down 3% from the 2024 record but was the second highest ever at $8.4 billion. Exports were record large to leading market Mexico and to Central America and the Caribbean. Exports to Colombia were down less than 1% from 2024’s volume record and reached a new high in value. Last year was outstanding for U.S. pork, especially in the U.S.’s Western Hemisphere markets, say Halstrom. Demand in these destinations has maintained multi-year momentum, and duty-free access to the U.S.’s FTA partner countries is a foundational factor in this growth. USMEF is hopeful that current trade negotiations will not only maintain this access but remove barriers for U.S. pork in other markets, he says.
With a steady December performance, Japan maintained its position as the leading volume market for U.S. beef exports, says USMEF. December shipments totaled 18,646 mt valued at $135.5M, both steady with a year ago. This included more than 5000 mt of beef variety meat (mostly tongues and skirts), up 47% from a year ago, while the value of these shipments climbed 49% to $45.3M. Combined beef and beef variety meat exports to Japan reached 237,975 mt in 2025, down 2% year-over-year, while value fell 6% to $1.76 billion. Overall variety meat exports were a major bright spot for U.S. beef in 2025, says USMEF. Exports were down 6% in volume (270,606 mt) but were just 1% lower in value ($1.08 billion).
Exports To Korea Finished 2025 Steady
Beef exports to South Korea, the leading value market for U.S. beef, were modestly lower in December but finished 2025 steady with a year ago at 232,175 mt, says USMEF. Export value was slightly higher at $2.23 billion, the third highest on record and the fifth consecutive year that shipments to Korea have exceeded $2 billion in value. In 2026, U.S. beef reached zero duty status under the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Before this FTA entered into force in 2012, U.S. beef entering Korea was tariffed at 40%.
December beef exports to Taiwan totaled 6569 mt, up 7% from a year ago. Although down 2% year-over-year, export value was the highest of 2025 at $75.3M. Exports to Taiwan rallied late in the year but still finished 2025 down 6% year-over-year in both volume (58,714 mt) and value ($667.6M). The reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan will eliminate tariffs on U.S. beef, as well as outdated non-tariff barriers related to BSE, says USMEF.
Despite a slight decline in volume, beef export value to Central America shattered the previous record in 2025, says USMEF. Although shipments to the region were down 5% from 2024’s record volume at 20,724 mt, export value soared 26% to $201.3M, led by exports to Guatemala topping $105M, an increase of nearly $27M from the previous year’s record. Exports also achieved annual value records in Panama, Honduras and Nicaragua. December beef exports to Mexico were down 4% from a year ago in volume (19,818 mt) but still climbed 4% in value ($118.2M). Full year exports to Mexico were down 10% from 2024 at 209,094 mt but value fell just 3% to $1.3 billion. These results included more than 115,000 mt of beef variety meat valued at $323.4M.
The largest variety meat shipments to Egypt in 11 months and a continued rebound for muscle cuts to the United Arab Emirates pushed December beef exports to the Middle East to 4816 mt, up 48% from a year ago, while value increased 52% to $21.8M. Full year exports to the region were down 2% in volume (51,338 mt) but increased 4% in value to $239.7M, says USMEF.
South America Sees Modest Growth
Beef exports to South America saw modest volume growth in 2025, up 3% from a year ago to 19,861 mt, says USMEF. But export value soared 34% to $152.2M, led by robust demand in Chile ($59.7M, up 28%) and an ongoing rebound in Colombia ($40.8M, up 77%). Exports to Peru also increased in value ($36.3M, up 17%) despite a decline in volume. Fueled by growth in the Dominican Republic, December beef exports to the Caribbean increased 9% from a year ago to 2948 mt, while value climbed 16% to $30.9M. Shipments to the region fell slightly in volume in 2025 (31,119 mt, down 4%) but increased 11% in value, reaching $314.1M. Exports were record large to the DR, Netherlands Antilles, Leeward-Windward Islands, Turks and Caicos and Cayman Islands.
Beef exports to the ASEAN region declined sharply in 2025, falling 15% in volume (35,844 mt) and 20% in value ($273.1M. But a newly announced agreement with Indonesia includes tremendous market access gains for U.S. beef, says USMEF. As previously noted, U.S. beef has been effectively locked out of China for several months due to China’s failure to renew plant and cold storage facility registrations and its unjustified suspension of many plants for technical reasons. Exports to China finished 2025 dramatically lower year-over-year in both volume (59,403 mt, down 48%) and value ($497.6M, down 69%).
The near-term potential value for red meat trade once shipments begin to Indonesia is between $400M and $500M per year, says USMEF. Indonesia has been a leading priority for the U.S. red meat industry throughout recent negotiations on reciprocal trade, says Halstrom. Especially without access to China, the U.S. beef industry needs to be able to serve the Indonesian market, which demands similar items as China and other Asian destinations. Currently, Indonesia is essentially closed to U.S. beef due to its trade limiting import licensing system and effective cap on imports. The new agreement addresses the many barriers maintained by Indonesia, and successful implementation will allow Indonesian importers and consumers to have access to U.S. beef for the first time. The agreement also includes a 50,000 mt annual purchase commitment.
FRONT-END SUPPLIES REMAIN ABOVE LAST YEAR
FEEDLOT placements and marketings continue to be well below last year’s levels. But this means the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) total remains close to a year ago. It also means that the front-end supply of cattle (those on feed more than 150 days) will remain above last year’s levels through the first half of 2026. The February1 COF total of 11.505M head was 98.2% of a year ago and was 211,000 head lower than a year ago. It was the lowest total for the date since 2017. Placements in January totaled 1.736M head, 95.3% of last year. They were the fourth lowest level on record for the month, 179,000 head under the five-year average and 86,000 head below the prior year. Marketings in January totaled 1.626M head, 87.0% of a year earlier. January had one less slaughter day than last year, so the marketing percentage was 91.5% of a year ago.
Three states, Idaho up 4%, Nebraska up 3% and Washington up 6%, had more cattle on feed than a year ago. Nebraska had the most cattle on feed with 2.680M head, with its total up 90,000 head from a year ago. Texas was second with 2.510M head, down 190,000 head, and Kansas was third with 2.350M head, down 20,000 head. Five states, Arizona (up 17%), Colorado (up 8%), Idaho (up 7%), Oklahoma (up 26%) and Washington (up 3%) placed more cattle in January than a year earlier. Three states marketed more cattle in January than last year. Idaho marketed 9% more, Iowa marketed 15% more and Washington marketed 3% more.
Regarding placement weights, the four lightest categories all saw year-on-year declines. The under 600 lb category saw 5000 fewer cattle placed than last year (360,000 head). The 600-699 lb category saw 30,000 fewer cattle placed (365,000 head). The 700-799 lb category saw 50,000 fewer cattle placed (455,000 head). The 800-899 lb category saw 1000 fewer cattle placed (381,000 head). The 900-999 lb category saw the same number of cattle placed (105,000 head) and the 1000 lbs plus category saw the same number of cattle placed (70,000 head).
Front-End Be Higher Until July
Front-end fed cattle supplies will likely remain above the prior year levels through the first-half of the year, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Currently, the projection for April 1is that the level of cattle on feed 150 plus days will be record large for any month any year at 3.457M head, although accelerated marketings could still alter this level. Projecting marketing rates at reduced levels, the July 1 cattle on feed 150 plus days total looks to drop slightly below the level of the previous year to 3.016M head. This would be the first time that the current year is under the previous year for this category of cattle since February 2025, he says.
However, the totals for this category of cattle project to remain above the five-year average by double-digits for the next six months, says Wilson. On March 1, cattle on feed 120 plus days are set to be 45.75% of the total number on feed. On April 1, the record high level of cattle on feed 150 plus days is projected to be 30% of the COF total. Both of these percentage levels of the front-end supplies versus cattle on feed totals are record high and unprecedented, he says.
The question as to whether the cyclical high had been achieved for feeder cattle and calf prices has been answered. It is no, says Wilson. The Annual Cattle Inventory report released by USDA on the last day of January showed the cattle and calves total was down 317,000 head from January 1, 2025. Total cow numbers were down slightly less than 100,000 head. With a calving rate equal to the five-year average rate, the estimated calf crop in 2026 is likely to be 100% of last year. Cattle out on wheat grazing in the main areas of the Southern Plains were reported to be up 12%, he says. Subtracting out heifers intended for retention and replacement, total feeder cattle supplies outside feedyards showed an increase of 219,000 head above January 1, 2025. This increase came without the addition of imported feeders from Mexico and with feeder imports from Canada during the first six weeks of the year down 49% from year ago levels, he says.