THE wholesale beef market continues to look for a spark from the imminent start to the grilling season. May and June are the two strongest months for beef demand. But beef cutouts so far in April have declined each week instead of increasing. This has perplexed market analysts and is contrary to what normally occurs in mid-to late April. Beef cutout values remain in a lackluster position for now, searching for some stability or at least some price support to develop, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Higher prices were seen to start the week before and expectations were for some follow-through to the upside during the weekday, he says But the Choice the Friday before last declined to $381.06 per cwt, versus $380.90 per cwt the previous Friday. The Select cutout declined to $376.60 per cwt, versus $381.34 per cwt the previous Friday. Beef volume remains light, despite the hopes for an upcoming seasonal resurgence in activity for beef sales, says Wilson.
Retail beef prices meanwhile eased slightly in March from February but remained far above the levels seen a year ago. USDA’s Choice beef price averaged $10.09 per lb, down three cents from February but up 15.3% from the $8.75 per lb average in March 2025. USDA’s All Fresh beef price averaged $9.55 per lb, down nine cents from February but up 13.4% from the $8.42 per lb average in March 2025. Ground beef prices in March averaged $6.70 per lb, down four cents from February but up 15.7% from the $5.79 per lb average in March last year.
Competing Meats Remain Far Cheaper
The price of competing meats remained well below beef prices in March and were in addition below year ago levels. USDA’s pork price averaged $4.87 per lb, down three cents from February and down 1.6% from the $4.95 per lb average in March 2025. USDA’s chicken price averaged $2.03 per lb, down two cents from February and down 1.5% from the $2.06 per lb average in March 2025.
The comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $385.95 per cwt, down $4.20 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $382.30 per cwt, down $4.11 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 29.1% of the total volume of 6365 loads of cuts, grinds and trim. Formula sales accounted for 54.6%, forward sales accounted for 16.3% and export sales accounted for 13.5%. The daily Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $2.44 per cwt to $383.50. Meanwhile, the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) set a new record for the fifth week in a row. For the week ended April 18, the price averaged $451.11 per cwt, up $3.65 per cwt from the prior week and up $2.79 per cwt from the record the week before that.
Cattle prices the week before last declined slightly after four weeks of increases. The 5-area steer prices averaged $248.02 per cwt live or $388.14 dressed. These were down $0.36 per cwt and $0.30 per cwt, respectively, from the week before. The cash trade was light to start last week but picked up Wednesday. Prices were $2 per cwt lower for both live and dressed sales in all regions. Live prices averaged $246 per cwt while dressed prices averaged $386 per cwt (all up north). A light trade continued Thursday morning. Meanwhile, fed cattle graded a record high percentage of Prime and Choice for the eighth week in a row. For the week ended April 11, cattle graded 14.89% Prime and 73.41% Choice. The total of 88.30% exceeded the prior week’s record of 88.23%.
COF TOTAL SCARCELY BUDGES
THE monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) total has scarcely budged in recent months. April 1’s COF total of 11.576M head was up only 27,000 head from the March 1 total and up 66,000 head from the February 1 total. The April total was 0.5% or 62,000 head lower than a year ago and was the lowest April 1 total since 2020. March placements totaled 1.709M head, 92.7% of a year ago and were the second lowest March total on record (only March 2020 being lower). March had one additional marketing day than last year but March marketings at 1.632M head were still only 94.5% of last year.
This was the second lowest March marketing level on record, a scant 1000 head above the March level in 2015, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. The marketing rate in March at 14.1% was a record lower for the month. The five-year average marketing rate during March stands at 15.9%. This equates to a marketing shortfall of 204,000 head during March this year. For the first quarter, marketings were above the record low in 2015 by only 8000 head, he says.
Seven states, California up 1%, Idaho up 4%, Iowa up 1%, Kansas up 1%, Nebraska up 2%, South Dakota up 2% and Washington up 4%, had more cattle on feed than a year ago. Nebraska had the most cattle on feed with 2.640M head, with its total up 40,000 head from a year ago. Texas was second with 2.560M head, down 110,000 head, and Kansas was third with 2.360M head, up 20,000 head. Five states, California up 15%, Idaho up 14%, Iowa up 1%, Oklahoma up 13% and Washington up 12% placed more cattle in March than a year earlier. Three states, California up 9%, Idaho up 16% and Washington up 27% marketed more cattle in March than a year ago.
Regarding placement weights, all categories saw year-on-year declines. The under 600 lb category saw 15,000 fewer cattle placed than last year (320,000 head). The 600-699 lb category saw 35,000 fewer cattle placed (250,000 head). The 700-799 lb category saw 40,000 fewer cattle placed (435,000 head). The 800-899 lb category saw 34,000 fewer cattle placed (474,000 head). The 900-999 lb category saw 5000 fewer cattle placed (170,000 head) and the 1000 lbs plus category saw 5000 fewer cattle placed (60,000 head).
Marketings Decline More Than Placements
The last 180 days have seen declining levels for both placements and marketings, says Wilson. Placements have declined by 673,000 head when combining the first quarter and the previous fourth quarter, versus the levels from the previous year. Marketings have declined even more, posting a 769,000 head drop for the same period. While there is the argument that this means supplies continue to shrink, note that the monthly COF totals have dropped an average of 217,000 head from the previous year. Based on USDA’s annual inventory reports for 2025 and 2026, the numbers on a five-year average basis should have declined an average of 273,000 head. Compounding these concerns are that the front-end marketable supplies are at record high levels for any month, any year and that thus far, April has not picked up the marketing pace, he says.
Front-end fed cattle supplies of 150 plus days on feed project to remain above the prior year levels into the end of the year, says Wilson. Additionally, May 1 will start with the level of cattle on feed 180 plus days being record large for any month in any year. The economic formula in cattle feeding has not changed, encouraging the extension of the time for holding cattle. The selling price of cattle remains well above the finishing costs of gain, so extra time and extra pounds add to the producers’ pockets, he says.
The average number of days on feed currently sits at 195, below the levels seen at this time last year, says Wilson This confirms that more numbers have moved into the front-end supply. Comparing the seasonal trends seen for the upcoming months, the five-year average decline in cattle on feed 180 plus days from the May peak to the September low is 334,000 head. In 2025 the drop was 188,000 head, while the projections this year show a drop of 466,000, provided the marketing rate does not disappoint further. While that trend is helpful, the numbers in this category do remain at record high levels into the fall, he says.
Feeder Index Hits New High
Another new high for the CME feeder cattle index price was seen the week before last, says Wilson. From the COVID low in the spring of 2020, the advance is now a staggering 330%. Needless to say, this greatly exceeds any inflationary measurements taken for that time frame. The southern border remains closed and the specter of New World screwworm (NWS) remains lurking on the other side, seemingly closer than ever. The importation of feeder cattle from the northern border year-to-date is down 59%, although the 2025 tariff adjustments last April likely inflated the first quarter activity that year. Compared to the five-year average, Canadian feeder imports year-to-date are down 41% or 20,500 head, he says.
Cow harvest during the first quarter met projections, declining approximately 5% from 2025, says Wilson. However, dairy cow harvest increased, somewhat masking the fact that beef cow harvest was down 17% compared to the same time frame in 2025. Heifer retention has also accelerated since the start of the year. Given the profitability realized by cow-calf operations, this is to be expected, although Mother Nature may still have a say in these economically-driven decisions. As of mid-April, 63% of the cattle inventory was deemed to be in drought-impacted regions, as compared to 38% in mid-April 2025, he says.
The feeder cattle and calf supply outside feedyards on April 1 will likely come as a surprise to the industry, says Wilson. The total projects to be 425,000 head above the level last year and would also be above the April 1 level of 2024. The projections remain 215,000 head under the latest calculated five-year average of 19M head. Should there be changes in import policies or activities, or should the weather dictate a smaller level of heifer retention and herd rebuilding, these supplies outside feedyards increase even more and even quicker. Impacts would obviously be negative to feeder cattle and calf prices, with no foreshadowing yet available from Mother Nature or Washington, he says.
Despite the abundance of distractions from the world arena, cash live cattle prices have moved to retest the all-time price levels set earlier in the year, says Wilson. Commercial steer and heifer harvest during the first quarter looked to be down 9%. Even with record high carcass weights, first quarter beef production is set for a 6% drop, the lowest level since 2016 and the fourth lowest first quarter production in the last 20 years. Lower production will generally beget higher prices. This however has not proven to be the case recently for the Choice cutout, as it posted a drop of more than $22 per cwt despite the declining production. Negative packer margins have again been realized as a result of higher input costs and dropping product values, he says.
Given the drop in first quarter harvesting, the increase in front-end marketable supplies is understandable, says Wilson. The fact that cattle on feed inventories have not varied by more than 3.15% year-over-year in the past 12 months in a period when total cattle inventory levels are at decades-low levels is also directly attributable to the slower harvesting rates. The smaller total inventory numbers have slowed feedlot placements in the last two quarters by 673,000 head from the same time frame a year earlier. Marketing levels for the same time frame are down 769,000 head, leaving a difference of 96,000 head for the outgoing cattle (an actual increase for remaining inventories). COF numbers during that time averaged 217,000 head lower each month. When making adjustments for total cattle inventories, these should have averaged 273,000 head lower each month. Once again, marketings are behind, he says.
USDA KEEPS PRODUCTION THE SAME
USDA scarcely changes its month-to-month forecast for 2026 beef production. It lowers its forecast to 25.790 billion lbs, only 20M lbs below last month’s projection. Compared to last month’s expectations, the pace of steer and heifer slaughter was slower in March, says USDA’s Economic Research Service. Further, slaughter data in early April lowered slaughter expectations from last month for the second quarter. This decline is partially offset by heavier anticipated carcass weights across all quarters. Average carcass weights in March posted all-time highs, above record weights from late last year. While nearly as many cattle are on feed as last year, 18% more have been on feed beyond 150 days and 91% more cattle have been on feed beyond 180 days.
The weighted average price in March for feeder steers weighing 750–800 lbs at the Oklahoma National Stockyards was $366.16 per cwt, nearly $83 per cwt above March 2025, says ERS. That differential added up to more than $600 per animal that feedlots paid for the same type of feeder cattle, compared with last year. It is worth noting that weekly prices in March had a relatively wide range, from $349.99 to $373.62 per cwt, demonstrating broader market volatility. In the first sale of April, feeder steer prices dropped roughly $1 per cwt from the previous week to $372.47 per cwt.
Supply fundamentals still play a role in supporting prices in the outlying quarters, says ERS. After adjusting for actual price data through the first quarter, the outlying quarters remain unchanged from last month for an annual price of $367.22 per cwt, a 14% increase from last year. Slaughter steers in the 5-area marketing region averaged $237.14 per cwt in March, almost $29 per cwt above 2025. However, prices declined about $7 per cwt from the February average, which is just the seventh time prices have declined from February to March since the data series began 25 years ago. Prices through April 8 have been reported at around $245 per cwt, says ERS.
Wholesale beef prices suggest that demand remained robust through early 2026, says ERS. Weekly comprehensive wholesale beef prices are showing quite a bit of strength ahead of what is typical in the runup to the spring grilling season in April and early May, it says.
Meanwhile, beef imports in January and February totaled 1.1 billion lbs, about 13% higher compared to the same period last year, says ERS. Imports from Brazil, the largest supplier so far this year, were nearly unchanged from a year ago but imports from Australia, Mexico, and countries outside the top five contributed to the higher overall imports. Imports from Canada and New Zealand were slightly smaller than a year ago. Data reveals that Brazil in the first two months exported 260.1M lbs of beef to the U.S., up 1.2% on the same period in 2025. Australia exported 213.7M lbs of beef, up 13.6%. Canada exported 157.0M lbs of beef, down 2.8%. Mexico exported 121.1M lbs of beef, up 15.9%. New Zealand exported 103.1M lbs of beef, down 2.9% on the same period last year.
NWS GROUNDBREAKING TAKES PLACE
THE groundbreaking of a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas to combat the threat of new world screwworm (NWS) took place on April 17. Leading the groundbreaking were Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Lieutenant General William H. “Butch” Graham, US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) commanding general. The project, constructed in partnership with USDA and USACE, will be able to produce up to 100M sterile flies per week as part of the nation’s ongoing efforts against NWS.
Breaking ground on this facility marks a major investment in safeguarding America’s livestock and the producers who feed this nation, said Rollins said. This puts NWS sterile fly production in American hands, so the U.S. does not have to rely on other countries for the best offensive measure to push screwworm away from its borders, she said. USDA predicts that initial operations will commence in November 2027. Construction will continue beyond this point to scale full production capacity eventually to 300M sterile flies per week.
USACE is providing engineering, design, construction management and contract oversight for the project. Together, USDA and USACE will oversee the installation and commissioning of specialized systems that will make the facility operational on time. The new facility is part of USDA’s five-pronged strategy to combat NWS. The production plant will complement its current production of 100M sterile flies per week at the COPEG facility based in Panama. Additionally, USDA has invested $21M in the modernization of the Metapa, Mexico, facility, which is expected to be operational in summer 2026.