BOXED beef cutout values rebound as weekly beef production remains below year ago levels. The comprehensive cutout the week before last averaged $353.73 per cwt, versus $342.15 per cwt the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $350.48 per cwt, versus $336.42, while the Select cutout averaged $346.94, versus $335.76 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 51.8% of the total volume of 6774 loads, spot market sales accounted for 33.5%, forward sales accounted for 14.8% and export sales accounted for 11.7%. Export’s 795 loads compared to 2025’s weekly average of 764 loads. The Choice cutout the first four days last week increased by $5.14 per cwt to $360.77 per cwt.
Cash live cattle prices the week before last averaged $231.86 per cwt live, up $0.18 per cwt from the prior week. Dressed prices averaged $364.99 per cwt, up $5.13 per cwt from the prior week. Virtually no cash trade occurred the first three days of last week. The only trade on Thursday morning was in Iowa-Minnesota where cattle sold at $232 per cwt live, similar to prices there and in Nebraska on Wednesday.
Beef Production Mirrors Cutbacks
The near-term production schedule continues to be influenced by the harvesting cutbacks made in attempts to remedy the negative margins at the packing level, says Bob Wilson, HedgersEdge.com. Last week’s projected total mirrored the total seen the prior week, approaching 555,000 head. With the relatively mild winter weather experienced thus far in cattle feeding areas, feed consumption levels and feeding performance remain robust. Marketable supplies are accelerating while harvesting levels are decelerating. This is a formula that would lead to expectations of less currentness. The closure of Tyson Foods’ plant in Lexington, Neb. was completed last week slightly ahead of schedule. The last harvesting day was set for Tuesday, with the last processing day set for the end of last week. The corresponding reduction to one shift in Tyson’s Amarillo, Texas plant was expected to be completed last week as well, says Wilson.
Demand issues continue to haunt and plague the price outlook in the beef complex, says Wilson. Latest retail price data for beef allowed for further understanding of the challenges the industry faces in the coming months on the demand side. The average December Choice price of $10.08 per lb level was equal to the previous month and was just below the peak in October of $10.11 per lb. The All Fresh beef price average set a new all-time high of $9.55 per lb, versus $9.40 per lb in November. Ground beef is also at record high levels at $8.25 per lb, says Wilson. Choice prices saw an annual advance in 2025 of 14%, with the All Fresh price up 10%. Retail chicken prices in contrast were up only 1.25% in 2025. He expects further faltering in the Choice cutout to be the pattern, even in the face of smaller production. Price resistance for the Choice cutout is seen at $395 per cwt, with price support at $340-$345 per cwt, he says.
Meanwhile, Brazil filled its U.S. ‘Other Country’ beef export quota in the first week of January. This means that for the rest of the year, Brazilian beef into the U.S. will be liable to a 26.4 % out-of-quota tariff. The ‘Other Country’ quota was already small at just 65,000 metric tons. But President Trump last week took the surprise step of taking 13,000 mt from the quota and granting it specifically to the UK in exchange for reciprocal access for U.S. beef into the UK. That reduced the ‘Other Country’ quota used by Brazil and others this year to just 52,000 mt, hastening the quota triggering by Brazil even faster.
CATTLE ON FEED FORECASTS
David Anderson, Texas A&M University: COF 9.6%, placed 94.6%, marketed 101.9%; Tyler Cozzens, Livestock Marketing Information Center: COF 96.9%, placed 95.1%, marketed 102.0%; Andrew Gottschalk, HedgersEdge.com: COF 97.4%, placed 94.9%, marketed 101.7%; Caleb Hurst, S&P Global Commodity Insights: COF 97.4%, placed 98.5%, marketed 101.8%; Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc: COF 96.1%, placed 88.8%, marketed 101.0%; Lori Porter, Allegiant Commodity Group: COF 96.9%, placed 94.7%, marketed 101.8%; Mike Sands, MBS Research: COF 97%, placed 94%, marketed 102%
COF TOTAL IS LOWEST SINCE 2018
THE January 1 Cattle on Feed (COF) total is expected to be around 11.5M head, which would be the lowest January 1 COF number since 2018. This estimate would have totals down 3.6% from the prior year and down 3.25% from the previous five-year average, says HedgersEdge.com. In contrast, front-end fed cattle supplies (COF 150 plus days) on January 1 are estimated to be record high at 2.728M head. This is 462,000 head or 20.4% above the previous year and 30.4% above the previous five-year average, for a total of 636,000 head higher than the average, says HedgersEdge.com This Friday’s COF report is also expected to show that November feedlot placements were down 5% on the prior year and that November marketing were down about 3% after taking one extra slaughter day last November into account, versus the year before.
Wrapping up 2025, December feedlot placements are projected near 94% of a year earlier, says Mike Sands, MBS Research. This is a less than seasonal decline from the small placements of a month earlier but still the smallest for the month since 2017. Monthly placements have been below a year earlier every month since March and for the year dropped nearly 1.5M head below a year earlier, posting the smallest annual placements since 2015. July-December feedlot placements are estimated more than 950,000 head below a year earlier, down more than 8% from 2024. Those smaller placements will make up most of the fed market supply during the first half of 2026, with the largest year-over-year declines likely to occur during the first few months of the year. Still, smaller placements likely will remain a key characteristic of the feeding industry in the months ahead, which will continue to limit fed cattle supplies at least through mid-year and likely longer, he says.
Although December fed cattle marketings are projected near 102% of last year, all of that increase is related to the additional marketing day during the month, says Sands. Adjusted for that difference, the December marketing pace was about 3% under a year earlier and the lowest for the month since 2015. The more aggressive marketing/slaughter pace early in the month was partially offset by the lackluster sales pace around the year-end holidays. This again resulted in relatively large numbers of fed cattle carried over into the new year. Record heavy carcass weights and record high grading percentages in early January suggest the front-end supply of fed cattle remain abundant. Generally favorable feeding conditions through the first half of the winter have favored feedlot performance and feeding returns but rapidly escalating breakevens may dampen cattle feeders’ enthusiasm for replacements in the weeks ahead, limiting both feedlot placements and marketings.
After beginning 2025 about 3% below a year earlier, the number of heifers in the feedlot inventory continued to shrink as the year progressed, slipping about 5% lower on July 1 and October 1, says Sands. That pattern likely persisted through the fall months and the number of heifers on feed January 1 may post a slightly larger decline, suggesting at least a modest rise in heifer retention in the upcoming cattle inventory report, he says.
The January 1 COF inventory is estimated near 97% of last year, down about 400,000 head from a year earlier and the smallest for date since 2018, says Sands. Although 2025 feedlot placements plunged nearly 1.5M head below a year earlier, the much smaller decline in the January 1 feedlot inventory is testament to the much longer feeding regimes, resulting in record heavy carcass weights. Historically high replacement costs, coupled with relatively low feed costs, will sustain the trend toward heavier weights and seasonal changes in carcass weights likely will be much more muted than historical norms. Feedlot inventories are expected to trend seasonally lower into the spring, with the largest year-over-year declines likely to be posted after mid-year, he says.
PORK EXPORTS TO MEXICO SET RECORD
RECORD large shipments to Mexico fueled strong October pork exports, which rose 5% from a year ago to 264,657 metric tons (mt). Beef exports in October totaled 93,448 mt, down 11% year-over-year but were the largest since June and 16% above the low volume posted in September. That’s according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Pork exports in October were valued at $762.1M, up 7%. Both volume and value were the largest since March, led by substantial growth in Mexico and year-over-year increases to Central America, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, says USMEF.
January-October pork exports reached 2.43M mt, just 2% below the record pace of 2024, says USMEF. Export value was also down 2% to $6.93 billion. The year-over-year difference is mostly due to a 20% decline in exports to China, which are mainly variety meats, where U.S. pork is subject to burdensome retaliatory duties. October pork exports to Mexico totaled 123,058 mt, up 25% from a year ago and topping the previous record (April 2024) by 14%. Export value reached $289M, up 33% year-over-year and exceeding the previous high (September 2025) by 11%. Through the first ten months of 2025, shipments to Mexico were 7% above the previous year’s record pace at 1.01M mt, while value climbed 11% to $2.33 billion.
With two months still to be reported, exports to Mexico already topped 1M mt for the third consecutive year and $2 billion for the fourth straight year, says USMEF. But the U.S. industry faces a potential headwind in the year ahead, with Mexico opening an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on imports of U.S. hams and pork shoulders. USMEF is currently assisting exporters in responding to Mexico’s requests for information related to the investigation, as well as working closely with U.S. trade officials, it says.
Beef export value was the highest since June at $759.5M, down 12% from a year ago but 15% above September, says USMEF. October beef exports increased year-over-year to Japan, Taiwan, Canada, the ASEAN region and the Dominican Republic, while also jumping sharply to Colombia. But these gains were more than offset by lack of access to China, which has reduced exports to minimal volumes for the past several months. For markets other than China, October beef exports were up 5% year-over-year in volume and up 7% in value. January-October beef exports totaled 949,471 mt, down 11% from the 2024 pace, while value was down 10% to $7.79 billion. When excluding China from these results, exports were down 3% in volume and down just 1% in value compared to the first ten months of 2024, says USMEF.
Global Demand Remains Robust
The latest export data confirms what he consistently hears from customers across the world and from USMEF’s international staff, that global demand for U.S. red meat remains robust despite tight supplies and formidable market access barriers, says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. Obviously, regaining access for U.S. beef in China is the most urgent priority, as industry losses from this lockout are enormous. But USMEF is also hopeful that ongoing trade negotiations will remove barriers in other destinations where consumers have a growing appetite for high quality red meat, he says.
Japan maintained its position as the leading volume destination for U.S. beef exports, says USMEF. October exports to Japan totaled 19,734 mt, up 17% from a year ago, while value increased 16% to $149.8M. It was an especially robust month for beef variety meat shipments to Japan (mainly tongues and skirts), which topped $50M in value for the first time since July 2022. For January through October, beef and beef variety meat exports to Japan were down 2% year-over-year to 201,221 mt, while value fell 6% to $1.49 billion, says USMEF. Exports to South Korea took a step back in October as shipments fell 15% year-over-year to 16,690 mt, valued at $153M (down 20%). Through the first ten months of 2025, beef exports to Korea remained 3% higher in both volume (194,407 mt) and value ($1.85 billion) compared to the same period in 2024. Although beef exports slowed to Taiwan in 2025, October brought a welcome rebound. October shipments totaled 5475 mt, the largest since June and the second highest monthly total for the year. October shipments were up 41% from the low volume posted in October 2024, while value was up 16% to $56.2M.
Exports To Central America Pass Full Year Record
While October beef exports to Central America were lower than a year ago at 1873 mt (down 15%), export value increased 26% to $21.5, says USMEF. With two months remaining, beef export value to Central America already surpassed the full year record set in 2024. January-October exports to the region were valued at $172.1M, up 30% from the previous year, while volume was steady at 17,875 mt. Exports to Guatemala, the largest market in the region, are on pace to set an annual record for the 11th consecutive year in 2025.
Led by growth in the Dominican Republic, beef exports to the Caribbean reached 2592 mt in October, up 5% from a year ago, says USMEF. Export value surged 22% to $27.5M, the highest since May. January-October shipments to the region increased 13% in value ($258.7M) despite a 4% decline in volume (25,743 mt). Exports to the Cayman Islands will be record large in 2025, while exports to the Bahamas should be the highest since 2011. October beef exports to South America were steady with the previous year at 1527 mt, but value soared 80% to $17.5M. Growth was driven by Colombia, where shipments climbed 141% in volume (594 mt) and nearly quadrupled in value ($8.2M) compared to the low totals of October 2024. For January through October, beef exports to South America increased 3% to 15,810 mt, while value climbed 38% to $121.9M. In addition to the rebound in Colombia, exports were also substantially higher to Chile, says USMEF.
Beef exports to Canada reached 9392 mt in October, up 23% from a year ago and the largest since July 2024. Export value climbed 37% to $83.3M, the highest since June. January-October shipments to Canada were 3% below the previous year’s pace in volume (81,250 mt) and 2% lower in value ($743.1M). With the market effectively closed to U.S. beef, October exports to China were minimal at 584 mt, down 97% from a year ago. Export value was $3.3M, down 98%. These results drove the January-October totals 61% below the 2024 pace at 57,634 mt, while value fell 63% to $490M. October beef export value equated to $364.78 per head of fed slaughter, down 4% from a year ago. The January-October average was $390.28 per head, down 5% from the same period in 2024. Exports accounted for 11.7% of total October beef production and 9.1% for muscle cuts, down from 12.5% and 10.3%, respectively, in October 2024. The January-October ratios were 12.8% of total production and 10.5% for muscle cuts, each down one full percentage point from a year ago.
AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS WERE A RECORD
AUSTRALIAN beef exports set an all-time annual record in 2025, reaching 1.545M metric tons (mt). The new record exceeded the previous record set a year earlier by more than 202,000 mt, meaning the number was not so much nudged higher as smashed, says Beef Central. Record volumes for several key markets, including the U.S. (453,305 mt), South Korea and a bunch of secondary and emerging destinations, were set along the way. Volumes to Canada reached their highest level since the BSE era of 2002, while trade into the UK was record high, according to data back to 1994. Grain-fed beef exports followed the broader trend last year, reaching a record 449,292 mt, more than 20% higher than the previous record set a year earlier.
There were a number of big drivers behind the 2025 record export tonnage, says Beef Central. They included: high levels of beef production in Australia underpinned by a beef herd at the upper end of the cycle above 31M head; heavier carcass weights driven primarily by lot-feeding; female slaughter ratios at moderate levels; generally favorable seasonal conditions for consecutive years across large parts of the country; a U.S. beef herd at 70-year lows, lifting demand for Australian beef into the U.S., together with reduced U.S. export competition against Australia in other markets, including Japan, Korea and China; a resurgence in popularity of beef globally, driven by dietary views and emerging middle class populations keen to eat more red meat protein; Australia’s strong international track record as a source of safe, clean-and-green product, fitting multiple price and budget points from commodity to five-star. Helping cement the new annual record was an incredible level of export trade during December, when exports hit 147,533 mt, a record for the month, says Beef Central.