DAILY and weekly boxed beef cutout values continue to tumble even though weekly beef production is slightly below this time last year. The market is now well and truly into the so-called dog days of summer when beef consumption typically declines. But retail sales appear to be holding up well despite a huge price increase in June. USDA’s Choice beef price averaged $9.27 per lb, up $0.46 per lb from May. USDA’s All Fresh beef price averaged $8.63 per lb, up $0.22 per lb from May. In contrast, average pork prices rose by only a penny to $4.92 per lb and average chicken prices rose by three cents to $2.09 per lb. This meant that the All Fresh beef price was four times higher than the chicken price and 1.75 times higher than the pork price.
The national boxed beef comprehensive cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last averaged $376.86 per cwt, down $10.68 per cwt from the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $372.42 per cwt, down $14.28 per cwt, while the Select cutout averaged $360.94, down $10.71 per cwt. Formula-priced sales accounted for 53.9% of the total volume of 6673 loads. Spot market sales accounted for 31.5%, forward sales accounted for 14.5% and export sales accounted for 11.8%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week declined by $5.46 per cwt to $368.09 per cwt and the Select cutout declined by $4.49 per cwt to $347.00 per cwt.
Also of note the week before last was that the price of domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) averaged another new record high of $418.19 per cwt, up 11.3% from the same week last year. This beat the previous record of $415.91 per cwt set the week before and was the eighth week in a row that the price set a new record. The price of fatty trimmings (50CL) averaged $257.43 per cwt, up 108.2% from the same week last year.
Cash Cattle Prices Were Steady
Cash live cattle prices the week before last were fully steady after their big surge in the prior week. The 5-area steer prices averaged $237.78 per cwt live or $379.36 per cwt dressed. These were up $0.57 per cwt and $0.15 per cwt, respectively, from the prior week. The live price fell just short of the highest price reported so far this year, $238.91 per cwt the week of June 15, which was also an all-time record high. The cash live cattle trade was slow to develop last week, with only 2011 head reported sold through Wednesday. A few loads of cattle sold in Iowa at $236 per cwt live while 1717 head sold down south at $230 per cwt live. Northern prices thus maintained their large premium to prices down south. The only reported trade through Thursday morning was down south, with prices in Texas at $231 per cwt live. Nebraska reported no sales by Thursday afternoon.
Carcass weights in the latest reported week ended July 12 all remained well above year ago levels but were flat compared to the prior week. Steer weights averaged 934 lbs, up 1 lb on the week before but up 19 lbs from the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 855 lbs, the same as the week before but up 24 lbs from last year. Overall weights averaged 866 lbs, the same as the week before but up 24 lbs from last year. Also of note is that cattle continue to grade a high percentage of Prime and Choice after setting a new record high of 85.35% the week ended May 10. Their combined percentage in the latest reported week ended July 12 was 84.39%. In contrast, cattle are grading below 13% Select.
Meanwhile, last Friday’s biannual cattle inventory report was expected to show the total cattle population on July 1 was 98.1% of a year ago. Totaol cows and heifers that have calved was 98.4% of last year, while the annual calf crop was 97.8% of last year. These percentages were based on the estimates of three market analyst.
BEEF IMPORTS SOARED IN MAY
U.S. beef imports soared in May, reflecting the ongoing demand for lean manufacturing beef. Imports totaled 550M lbs, more than 60% higher year-over-year and the second highest monthly import total behind January of this year, says USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). Brazil was the largest contributor to the increase with imports of 175M lbs, more than five times the amount imported in May 2024. Year-to-date imports from Brazil are more than double the same period last year at 666M lbs. Volume was up 347% year-over-year.
Reported exports from Brazil peaked in April and then fell off, says ERS. The transit time from Brazil to the U.S., as well as product that is shipped to the U.S. but remains in bonded warehouses, causes a lag between the two data sets. Therefore, U.S. imports from Brazil may begin reflecting the past couple of months’ declining shipments. Beef imports from Australia also continue to be strong. Imports in May alone were up more than 35% year-over-year at 103M lbs, says ERS.
Imports from other countries outside the top five suppliers also accounted for a significant portion of the year-over-year increase in May, says ERS. Notably, Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay together accounted for an additional 39M lbs pounds year-over-year. Demand for imported beef trimmings remains high as domestic cow slaughter has been consistently low throughout the year, says ERS. Based on recent data and the continued strong demand for imports, ERS raised it 2025 second quarter import forecast by 150M lbs to 1.475 billion lbs. It raised its third and fourth quarter forecasts each by 20M lbs to 1.240 billion lbs and 1.180 billion lbs, respectively. Its annual forecast for 2025 is now 5.377 billion lbs. It also raised its annual forecast for 2026 by 325M lbs to 5.350 billion lbs, which would be less than 1% lower than 2025 imports.
Brazil Faces Huge Losses
Brazil could lose at least $1.3 billion worth of beef and livestock product sales to the U.S. in the second half of 2025 unless the nation can negotiate some relief from the additional 50% tariff threatened by President rump from August 1. This estimate came from the Brazilian Meat Packers Assn last week. As CBW previously reported, the imposition of an additional 50% tariff on imported Brazilian beef on top of existing tariffs of 26.4% would take the tariff total for beef entering the U.S. to 76.4%. Trade would be unviable under those terms, say trade analysts inside and outside Brazil, meaning Brazil would have to divert beef to other export markets, principally China.
The U.S. is now Brazil’s second largest beef export destination after China. January through May, the U.S. imported 165,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef, up 85% on the same period last year. The Brazilian government last Tuesday sent a formal message to Washington expressing its indignation over the additional tariff imposed on Brazilian exports. At the same time, the letter signaled Brazil’s willingness to engage in dialogue with U.S. authorities and negotiate a mutually acceptable solution.
In another beef trade twist, Australia exported nearly three times more beef to New Zealand in the first half of this year versus last year. Exports totaled5037 mt, equally split between chilled and frozen. The same 12 months a year earlier saw volume at just 1733 mt. Chilled beef has been the big growth segment, says Beef Central. A declining New Zealand beef herd is part of the reason for the rise. Former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinta Ardern’s carbon tax, even though it has since been rescinded, meant New Zealand livestock producers made decisions three years ago on managing their businesses that are now “coming home to roost,” an Australian beef processor/exporter contact told Beef Central this week.
This is the biggest year for exports to New Zealand we’ve ever had, the contact told Beef Central. Its business has probably sold four or five times the amount of beef it has ever sent in the past. This year, the trade into NZ started earlier and it was broader in the range of cuts being taken. The business he does there is still small, in the context of other much larger export markets he services in North Asia, North America and elsewhere. But nevertheless it has grown significantly this year, he told Beef Central. More on trade matters in the next story.
AUSTRALIA LIFTS RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. BEEF
AUSTRALIA is lifting its restrictions on imports of U.S. beef, allowing fresh and frozen products to enter the country. A U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. But Australia used numerous tactics to deny access, which angered and frustrated U.S. beef industry organizations. It has finally relented, saying it is satisfied with traceability programs put in place by the U.S. industry. Not surprisingly, the Australian beef industry is calling for a review of the process.
The U.S. Beef Imports Review has undergone a rigorous science and risk-based assessment over the past decade, Australian Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said in a statement to Australian media. The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry is satisfied the strengthened control measures put in place by the U.S. effectively manage biosecurity risks, she said. Australia previously allowed some U.S. beef to enter its market since 2019. However, some beef products were banned due to concerns about bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreaks. Australia previously scrutinized beef sourced from cattle in Canada or Mexico slaughtered in the U.S. The decision comes as the U.S. and Australia continue to negotiate a trade deal. The two sides are negotiating the level of tariffs on steel and aluminum, along with pharmaceuticals.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn (NCBA) said it appreciated the policy change and explained its stance on the benefits to its U.S. members. For 20 years, U.S. beef was denied access to Australia while Australia exported $29 billion of beef to U.S. consumers, said NCBA president Buck Wehrbein. The lack of two-way, science-based trade has been a sticking point for many years and NCBA is pleased that President Trump has successfully opened the Australian market to American beef. NCBA has spent decades working to correct this trade imbalance and it is proud to have a president who is willing to fight for American farmers and ranchers, expand export markets and fix unfair trade agreements across the world, he said.
The United States is the gold standard for safe and delicious beef, and it has some of the highest animal health and food safety standards in the world, said NCBA Executive Director of Government Affairs Kent Bacus. Opening the Australian market to American beef will benefit U.S. producers, while also offering Australian consumers the opportunity to enjoy the U.S.’s high quality beef, he said.
USMEF Also Praises Trump
Meanwhile, the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) said it greatly appreciates the Trump administration’s new trade agreement with Japan, which reassures and expands opportunities in the No. 2 export destination for U.S. beef and pork. Trump last Tuesday announced what he called a “massive” deal with Japan that includes reciprocal tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S., with auto duties reportedly being lowered to that level. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Japan would invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the U.S. would “receive 90% of the profits.” Trump also said that Japan will “open their Country to Trade, including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things.”
In President Trump’s first term, the critical U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement was reached. This returned U.S. red meat to a level playing field in Japan and restored its position as an extremely reliable market, says USMEF. According to the information released by the White House, the new agreement focuses on reinforcing the long-term economic partnership between the U.S. and Japan, which for decades has delivered tremendous benefits for the U.S. livestock and meat industries and for Japanese consumers, importers and customers. USMEF looks forward to continued growth and mutual benefits and thanks the team at USTR and the Trump administration for another agreement reached in the critical Asia Pacific region, says USMEF.
In another trade development, the U.S. and the Republic of Indonesia reached a “landmark trade deal” on July 22, according to an announcement from the White House. The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade will provide both countries’ exporters “unprecedented access” to the other’s markets, the White House said.
Indonesia Will Eliminate Nearly All Barriers
The agreement builds on the two countries’ longstanding economic relationship, including the US-Indonesia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, which was signed in 1996, said the White House. As part of the terms, Indonesia will eliminate approximately 99% of tariff barriers for a full range of U.S. industrial, food and agricultural exports. Meanwhile, the U.S. will reduce to 19% the reciprocal tariffs, in line with President Trump’s executive order on April 2, 2025, and may also identify certain commodities not domestically produced in the U.S. for a further reduction, said the White House.
Through the agreement, the U.S. and Indonesia are committed to address current or potential barriers to U.S. food and agricultural products in the Indonesian market. Examples include exempting U.S. food and agricultural products from all import licensing regimes such as commodity balance requirements. Part of this commitment also includes recognizing U.S. regulatory oversight by the listing of all U.S. meat, poultry and dairy facilities and accepting certificates issued by U.S. regulatory authorities.
The announcement shows that America can defend its domestic production while obtaining expansive market access with its trading partners, said US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. American producers, who have long-faced high tariffs and burdensome requirements, will receive unprecedented access to Indonesia’s market and greater certainty for the digital services sector. He thanked Indonesian Minister Airlangga Hartarto for his dedication and said he was glad they were able to achieve fair, balanced and reciprocal trade for both countries.
Giving voice to the meat industry, Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO commented on how the deal reached with Indonesia could open doors for U.S. meat exports. USMEF thanks USTR for its tireless efforts to negotiate a meaningful agreement with Indonesia, tackling many challenging issues, he said. Indonesia is a market with incredible potential, in which the opportunity for U.S. beef is estimated at $250M annually. But today, exports are minimal due to numerous trade barriers., he said.
USMEF is encouraged to see that the highlights detailed in the US-Indonesia joint statement include resolving key issues such as import licensing, the commodity balance policy and Indonesia’s onerous plant-by-plant approval process, said Halstrom. For both U.S. beef and pork, these longstanding restrictions have limited exports to Indonesia. Indonesian importers and consumers are demanding U.S. red meat and USMEF looks forward to the swift conclusion of these negotiations and expanded export opportunities, he said.
REPORT FORECASTS STRONG MEAT CONSUMPTION
A NEWLY released report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts strong growth in global consumption of animal-source foods over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. meat producers. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 projects that as incomes rise across middle-income countries, demand for meat, dairy, eggs, and fish will climb sharply, with per capita calorie intake from these sources expected to rise 6% globally and an impressive 24% in lower-middle-income countries.
This is an encouraging sign for global nutrition and food security but it also signals opportunities and challenges for livestock sectors, said FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu. By 2034, average per capita intake of animal-source foods is projected to reach 364 kcal/day in lower-middle-income countries, well above the FAO’s 300 kcal benchmark for a healthy diet. Low-income countries however will lag behind at just 143 kcal/day, highlighting ongoing disparities. Global meat, dairy, and egg production is expected to grow by 17%, driven mainly by productivity gains in middle-income countries. Total livestock inventories, including pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry, will expand by 7%, says the report.