NORTH American food and other agricultural imports into the U.S. appear to have partially avoided a new 10% tariff imposed by President Trump on all imports. That’s because goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to be exempt from the new tariffs. However, non-compliant goods will be subject to a 25% tariff, with exceptions for energy and potash from Canada. Trump imposes even higher tariffs on nations the White House considers bad actors. He imposes a 34% tariff on Chinese imports on top of the existing 20% and says he will impose a 20% tariff on imports from the European Union and a 24% tariff on Japanese imports. Beef and cattle from Canada and Mexico appear to be exempt from tariffs but the danger is whether countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural and other exports. Most of the tariffs took effect on April 5.
The impact of retaliatory tariffs could be huge, given the integrated nature of the North American market. Regarding cattle, 780,000 head moved from Canada to the U.S. last year, with 80% of them fed or non-fed cattle for immediate slaughter. The U.S. represents 15% of Canadian fed cattle marketings. Any increase in price might have caused packers like Tyson Foods or JBS to procure fewer cattle for their Pasco, Wash., and Souderton, Pa., plants, respectively. Mexico in 2024 exported 1.24M feeder cattle to the U.S. Most of these enter Southern Plains and Southwest feedlots, which have long been dependent on Mexican cattle to fill their pens.
U.S. Meat Exports Are Still At Risk
On the beef side, one quarter of all Canadian beef production goes to the U.S. Net exports to the U.S. after U.S. exports to Canada amount to 20% of Canadian beef production. Imports last year totaled 1.013 billion lbs. Beef imports from Mexico last year totaled 597M lbs. Any retaliatory tariffs would threaten U.S. meat exports to the two neighbors. The U.S. last year exported $5.683 billion of beef and pork to the two countries, with $1.35 billion of beef going to Mexico and $877M of beef going to Canada.
Australian beef, sheep meat and goat meat exports to the U.S. will be exposed to the 10% tariff. While the size of the tariff is at the upper end of the scale anticipated by Australian stakeholders, a long list of other countries exporting goods to the U.S. will be subject to tariff impositions much higher than Australia’s 10%, says Beef Central’s Jon Condon. Major beef export competitor Brazil will also sit among the baseline trade partner countries on 10%. But it remains unclear whether that will be stacked on top of Brazil’s existing 26.5% tariff on beef exports to the U.S., having triggered its annual quota back in January. On lean beef trimmings used to make U.S. hamburgers, it is estimated that the tariff on Australian product will cost the U.S. consumer $180M per year, says Condon. He notes that Trump singled out Australian beef for mention in his White Houses announcement last Wednesday. Australians are wonderful people “but they banned American beef, yet we imported $3 billion worth of Australian beef last year alone,” he said. That dollar amount actually refers to lifetime exports.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand red meat sector says it is disappointed that the U.S. is imposing a 10% tariff on its exports to the U.S. A joint statement from Beef+Lamb New Zealand and the Meat Industry Assn said their understanding is that this will be applied on top of the current tariff rate New Zealand faces on each product. For beef, this will mean a 10.75% in-quota tariff rate in total and up to 36.4% out-of-quota tariff rate in total. New Zealand has a large quota, which hasn’t been fully utilized since 2015. For sheep meat, this will mean approximately 10.06% in total. CBW reports on U.S. meat industry responses to the tariffs in its next story.
TRADE GROUPS’ RESPONSES ARE MUTED
RESPONSE by major U.S. meat and livestock trade groups to the tariff announcement last Wednesday was largely muted. The Executive Order issued by the White House definitely provides more clarity on the administration’s approach to reciprocal tariffs, and the U.S Meat Export Federation (USMEF) appreciates the White House bringing attention to the markets in which U.S. exports face significant trade barriers, said Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. USMEF also appreciates that the U.S. is maintaining zero duties on USMCA-compliant products. USMEF’s main concern continues to be how trade partners will react. USMEF is hopeful they will focus on eliminating trade barriers rather than imposing restrictive countermeasures, he said.
The Meat Institute, which represents U.S. meat and poultry processors, confirmed it would work with the Trump administration on ways to increase market access for meat and poultry products. Over the coming days, it will work with its members to understand the impact to the industry as tariffs and retaliatory tariffs take effect, said president and CEO Julie Anna Potts. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn (NCBA) provided a strongly-worded statement about trade barriers on U.S. beef. For too long, America’s family farmers and ranchers have been mistreated by certain trading partners around the world, said NCBA’s Ethan Lane said. President Trump is taking action to address numerous trade barriers that prevent consumers overseas from enjoying high quality, wholesome American beef. NCBA will continue engaging with the White House to ensure fair treatment for America’s cattle producers around the world and optimize opportunities for exports abroad, said Lane.
Numerous countries impose tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on American beef that inhibit opportunities to export the U.S.’s high quality product, said Lane. For example, Australia has sold roughly $29 billion of beef to American consumers but the U.S. has not been able to sell $1 of fresh U.S. beef in Australia due to non-scientific barriers. Vietnam places a 30% tariff on U.S. beef while Australian beef faces no such tariff. Thailand places a 50% tariff on U.S. beef. Brazil and Paraguay have a history of dangerous foot-and-mouth disease. But despite overwhelming evidence of their animal health risk, the Biden administration continued to allow U.S. market access to Brazil and Paraguay. The European Union places numerous non-scientific “Green Deal” restrictions on American beef, limiting market opportunities, said Lane.
DRESSED PRICES SET NEW RECORD
CASH live cattle prices on a dressed basis set a new record high for the second week in a row. They averaged $338.32 per cwt the week before last, up from $335.15 per cwt the week before that. Live prices averaged $212.14 per cwt, down from the record $213.23 per cwt of the prior week. Very little trade occurred the first three days of last week. Kansas and Texas reported that 838 head sold on Wednesday at $210 per cwt live. A more active trade Thursday up north saw prices at $212-213 per cwt live or $335-345 per cwt dressed. A light trade down south saw prices average $208-208.50 per cwt live.
Overall carcass weights were flat in the latest reported week ended March 22 but remained well above year ago levels. Steer weights averaged 950 lbs, up 3 lbs on the week before and up 26 lbs on the same week last year. Heifer weights averaged 870 lbs, down 1 lb from the week before but up 20 lbs on the same week last year. Overall weights averaged 871 lbs, flat with the week before but up 24 lbs on the same week last year. This was the equivalent of adding 15,800 head to that week’s slaughter total of 557,327 head, says HedgersEdge.com.
The national comprehensive boxed beef cutout (cuts, grinds and trim) the week before last increased again from the prior week. It averaged $330.77 per cwt, up $3.89 per cwt on the prior week. The Choice cutout averaged $329.90 per cwt, up $5.25 per cwt. The Select cutout averaged $313.37 per cwt, up $4.30 per cwt. Spot market sales accounted for 29.9% of the total volume of 6860 loads, formula sales accounted for 56.0%, forward sales accounted for 14.1% and export sales accounted for 14.2%. The Choice cutout the first four days of last week increased by $5.55 per cwt to $338.37 per cwt, after breaching $340 per cwt last Tuesday. Meanwhile, domestic lean manufacturing beef (90CL) continues to trade at record high levels. The average price the week before last was $381.96 per cwt, up from the previous record $381.82 per cwt set the prior week.
USDA RAISES BEEF FORECAST AGAIN
USDA raises its forecast for this year’s beef production for the second month in a row. It also raises its forecast for 2025 beef imports. Total beef production outlook for 2025 is projected up 120M lbs from last month’s forecast to 26.685 billion lbs, says USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report. This is the result of heavier expected carcass weights in each quarter more than offsetting lower than expected overall cattle slaughter since last month, it says.
ERS lowered its forecast for first quarter beef production by 65M lbs from last month on a slower pace of fed cattle and cow slaughter than previously anticipated. This is only partially offset by heavier expected carcass weights, it says. In the second quarter, its forecast for beef production is increased 25M lbs from last month as heavier carcass weights are carried forward, more than offsetting a slower pace of fed cattle marketings. In the third and fourth quarters, production is forecast up 70M lbs and 90M lbs, respectively, from last month as heavier carcass weights and an increase in fed cattle slaughter are expected. Its annual forecast is about 1% below levels in 2024 and 6% below the record set in 2022, says ERS.
A factor supporting production, however, is increasing average carcass weights despite fewer slaughtered cattle year over year, says ERS. In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights averaged 40 lbs more than the same period last year. This component of production was driven by two factors: heavier carcass weights of steers and heifers, and the proportion of steers and heifers in the slaughter mix versus cows and bulls. Steers and heifers have contributed about 79% of the total cattle slaughter annually over the last ten years. Despite bulls averaging the second heaviest carcass weight behind steers, they typically make up less than 2% of the slaughter mix. Through the first ten weeks of this year, estimated weekly federally-inspected slaughter points to fed cattle averaging over 81% of total federally-inspected cattle slaughter. This is the first time it has moved above 80% this early in the year since 2007, says ERS.
Outlook Is Mixed for Cattle Prices
The combination of tight supplies of feeder cattle, the recently constrained pace of cattle imports from Mexico due to protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm and uncertainty surrounding the terms of trade for cattle imported from Canada and Mexico are creating some price volatility, says ERS. These factors are pushing prices higher for cattle feeders and stocker operations to secure their cattle needs. In February, the weighted average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 lbs at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $270.67 per cwt. Although a decrease of $3.78 per cwt from January, it was likely due to unfavorable winter weather that reduced auction volumes and sales participation. But in the first two weeks of March, sales receipts eclipsed receipts tallied in all of February and prices surged to an average $277.28 per cwt, says ERS.
As a result of recent price strength and firm demand for feeder calves, the price outlook for each quarter is raised $1 per cwt from last month for an annual price of $274.75 per cwt, says ERS. The reported prices for slaughter steers in the 5-area marketing region have also been mixed, although largely following a typical post-holidays seasonal decline in wholesale boxed beef prices. Although the average price in February was $202.60 per cwt, $1.89 per cwt lower than January, daily prices ranged from $197.00 to $207.16 per cwt. Through the first week of March, daily prices have ranged from $195.00 to $201.15 per cwt. Based on price data through early March, the first quarter price forecast was lowered $3 per cwt to $202.00 per cwt. The second quarter forecast is lowered $2 per cwt to $198.00 per cwt, based on the slower pace of slaughter in the second quarter and relatively softer demand than previously expected. The annual slaughter steer price forecast is lowered $1.25 to $199.50 per cwt.
U.S. beef imports in January 2025 were a record 608M lbs, more than 100M lbs or 21% higher than January 2024, says ERS. The main contributor to the large year-over-year increase was imports from Brazil, up 42M lbs from a year ago. Also contributing to the increase were imports from the rest of world (countries not in the top five suppliers), specifically Paraguay, which was up 28M lbs. Paraguay became eligible to export fresh beef to the U.S. in December 2023 and imports began climbing throughout 2024, says ERS.
Imports Will be 5% Higher
Based on the strong imports in January and continued demand for lean processing beef, the forecast for first quarter beef imports is raised 100M lbs to 1.330 billion lbs, says ERS. Its second quarter forecast is raised 30M lbs to 1.100 billion lbs. The year-over-year growth in imports is expected to moderate in the latter half of the year, therefore the third quarter is lowered 25M lbs to 1.225 billion lbs. Fourth quarter projections are unchanged at 1.220 billion lbs for an annual total of 4.875 billion lbs. If realized, this would be a 5% increase year over year, says ERS.
Regarding beef exports, ERS slightly lowered its forecasts for the first and second quarters by 10M lbs and 15M lbs to 705M lbs and 730M lbs, respectively. This was based on the slightly slower pace of exports in January, says ERS. However, domestic beef production is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, so its export forecasts for the third and fourth quarters are raised 25M lbs each to 700M lbs and 685M lbs, respectively. This sets exports at about 10% of production for those quarters. Its annual forecast is now 2.820 billion lbs, which would be a year-over-year decrease of 6%, says ERS.
AMERICANS EAT MORE PROTEIN
AMERICANS forked out a record $104.6 billion for meat at the grocery store in 2024. Not only did value increase nearly 5% year-over-year but volume saw a 2.3% increase to 22.8 billion lbs compared to 2023. So noted the annual Power of meat report, as reported in CBW’s March 31 issue. Now another report confirms that Americans are eating more protein than ever before. Cargill’s 2025 Protein Profile revealed that in 2024, 61% of U.S. consumers increased their protein intake compared to 48% in 2019.
Cargill’s third annual protein trends report was compiled by its North American Food Business Marketing and Insights team to provide a comprehensive look at protein consumption trends. This year’s report found that animal proteins like beef, chicken and eggs are preferred sources of protein for most consumers due to their taste, nutrition and versatility. On average, three out of four people will include animal protein in their evening meals, with 74% saying meat is an important part of their diet. How consumers think about and engage with protein is evolving, and that presents new opportunities across the food industry, says Gonzalo Petschen, group president at Cargill North American Food Business. Whether it’s developing high protein snacks, offering convenient meal solutions or tapping into social media-driven food trends, Cargill’s goal is to help its customers stay ahead of what’s next while delivering on consumer demands, he says.
Social media is one factor driving change in the sector, says Cargill. Inspired by influencers, consumers are gaining interest in food experimentation, from secret menus at foodservice chains to high protein diets like the trending carnivore diet. Cargill found that over half of consumers are trying new foods as seen on social media. Meanwhile, GLP-1 users are shifting portion sizes in favor of smaller, high protein meals that satisfy without excess calories. Staying ahead of emerging trends by monitoring social media platforms allows brands to quickly adapt and incorporate these trends into their offerings, attracting trend-conscious consumers, says Glendon Taylor, marketing director at Cargill.
Inflation is reshaping how consumers define value, says Cargill. With rising food costs, Americans are prioritizing affordability without sacrificing on taste. They are buying more premium cuts to recreate restaurant-style experiences at home. When they do go out, they are looking for unique menu items that they can’t or don’t want to make at home. Cargill’s report also points out a shift from premium cuts like steak to more affordable options like ground beef and chicken. Beef accounts for 57.4% of all fresh meat dollars. But 43% of consumers have switched to lower-cost protein cuts like chicken. Although some Americans are buying in bulk and freezing portions to manage costs, 30% prefer smaller packages for the immediate savings, says Cargill.